ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, SALSA BAY

FIRST RACE

SALSA BAY was shuffled back along the inside on the far turn last time in a race that you can draw a line through. He was good enough to win an N1X route with an 81 Beyer two back, and is dropping from $50K to $40K this time. BEAR’SWAY raced four-wide all the way over an inside-favoring track when beating $25K stock in his latest. The classy stakes winner should be a factor in the third race of his form cycle. EIRIGH placed in each of his last three outings, all against tougher.

SECOND RACE

MAJOR ECLIPSE led the way before tiring in the final three-sixteenths in the 12-furlong Breeders’ Stakes, but was never in the hunt most recently in a one-mile N1X. An aggressive approach could serve him well in this nine-furlong N1X, which doesn’t contain a regular front-runner. MICK THE CONQUEROR beat three next-out winners last time when finally graduating in his 16th race. He wouldn’t be much of a surprise with that confidence-builder under his girth. KASSEOPIA ran second to Riker in the G3 Grey two years ago in his only local outing. He’s eligible to wake up in his second try off the bench.

THIRD RACE

TREASURE FINDER was stuck in traffic before landing on the edges in a recent turf sprint at this level. She’s hard to gauge on synthetics, but should hit the ticket as a longshot in this sixfurlong dash on the Tapeta, if able to improve on that last performance. EDISTO ISLAND is dropping from open maiden special company to a logical spot, while changing surfaces. CANADIAN CLUB EH is by a high-percentage debut sire, the hot young Maclean’s Music. Her stakes-winning dam has been a modest producer.

FOURTH RACE

TROUBLE IN PHOENIX came from off slow fractions to narrowly lose a recent $20K turf route. He has ample speed to chase in this $20K starter, and Contreras knows him better now. SPRING UP sticks out on class and recent Beyers, but Chicago shippers have disappointed here of late, especially from this high-percentage barn. STAR CONTENDER ran hot and cold since returning to the local scene. He could track the other speed en route to a high placing.

FIFTH RACE

LYLA LORRAINE rallied for second against the boys at this $20K NW2 level three weeks ago. She has lots of speed to run at here against her own sex, and should be along in time as the chalk. ROCKPORT DANCER brings good closing turf form to this seven-furlong Tapeta tilt. TRIPLE CHOCOLATE has a spotty synthetic track record, but could be a factor on the turnback from a half-length loss in a grass route.

SIXTH RACE

HARPER P M began slowly before closing belatedly during a wide trip when favored in his seven-furlong opener on the main track. The son of Awesome Again is the first foal from a turf winner, and note that he worked fast over the turf training course Sept. 17, for a successful second-out trainer. KITTEN’S BOY is by North America’s perennial leading turf sire, Kitten’s Joy, who’s gotten nearly 16% 2yo debut winners. His stakes-winning dam produced Princess Elizabeth Stakes winner Catch the Thrill, along with two stakes-placed grassers. FOLLOW MY LEAD, who placed in two of his three turf tries, has been idle since a non-threatening sixth in the G2 Summer. Use him on the bottom of vertical bets, along with MIGHTY ZEUS, who’s exiting a good key race on the Tapeta.

EXECUTIVE SIGHT has maintained solid Tapeta form since a lackluster turf experiment July 30, and should be a factor in his second try in a NW2 OS allowance/$40K claimer. GAMBLE’S CITIZEN worked extensively during his late summer/early fall vacation, and is tagged for the first time with Moran taking over. AREOCENTRIC finished just a neck behind the top pick after a wide trip when returning from a two-month break Sept. 27.

EIGHTH RACE

LINE OF VISION raced quite wide all the way while mounting a rally from the back of a large field when third in the restricted Muskoka Stakes Aug. 30, which contained two next-out maiden special winners. She could mow down all the speed in this OS stakes, in her first start under money rider Da Silva. MEGA MONSTER is out of the speedy Victorian Queen winner Medabuck. She was sidelined with a minor problem after ending up second in the July 23 Shady Well Stakes, and has worked regularly for a capable layoff trainer. SHE’S THE BERRIES possesses the highest Beyers in the lineup, along with the promising maiden ROSEMERE, who’s adding Lasix.

NINTH RACE

BLURRICANE won both of her fresh races at this stand, most notably the restricted Ballade Stakes in her season opener. The stretch-runner could be along in time if she gets some pace to chase. SCOTTY’S MODEL notched her return from a oneyear layoff in a $50K claimer Sept. 4, earning one of her highest Beyers in the process. CONQUEST CITY GIRL ran her best race in a while last time when second to Just Be Kind, who subsequently ran second in the Ruling Angel Stakes.

TENTH RACE

INTENT TO STRIKE fought for the lead before weakening to fourth the last time he saw action in a July 21 maiden special on the Laurel lawn. Leading rider Da Silva has the call on the son of Smart Strike, who’s making his first start for trainer Malcolm Pierce. VAUGHAN rallied for second in each of his last two races, both in shorter maiden special events. NATURE’S FORTUNE is by the top older sire Tiznow, who has low numbers with firsters, but the Sam-Son homebred is the first from a turf stakes winner. Save ENGLISH CLASSIC and MATTHEW’S RIDGE for the lower rungs of the exotics. 555 Rexdale Blvd. Rexdale, Ontario M9W 5L2 (416) 675-7223 Main track: One mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: Harness track: Seven furlongs. Turf course: One and one half miles. Distance from last turn to finish line: 975 feet. 1,440 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win: 14.95% ■ Place, and show: 16.95% ■ Exactors: 20.5% ■ Double: 15% ■ Pick 3 and Superfecta wagering: 26.3% ■ Triactor, Pick 4, Pick 6 wagering: 25%