ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, CALLINGAHARDTEN

FIRST RACE

TEQUILA FACTOR won’t go favored as that distinction lands on the rail runner. Our top pick gelding needed a break and got one but also has some works for this. Sure, he might want two turns or even the turf but the class drop intrigues us and Ramgeet gets a leg up. CROWN KING saves his best for this dirt and does have some back class. He is a 9YO coming off a short layoff and for a 3% barn but have you seen the rest of these? LONDON LEGACY is your big favorite even though he is stuck on the rail and has never run here before. Why doesn’t Ramgeet ride this Diodoro runner? Oh, that’s right, he is on our top pick. Let the guessing game begin.

SECOND RACE

MR. WIGGLE drops in class and tries easier all while shipping in from SoCal but you can see that, right? This is dam’s first runner and he was sent off at 38-1 in his debut so ending up here isn’t much of a shocker. He hopped at the start in said debut and that is a killer for anyone making his debut. He actually ran kinda even after that. We don’t like the rail draw for a horse making only its second start but new barn knows what they are doing and they find a good spot. DUOOS’ WILD showed some promise in his first two starts in Minnesota. Fun fact: four of five sibs are multiple winners. A coupe of local works should have him set for what might be his best effort of short career and if a much better price than our top pick then can’t fault any who take a shot. VIDAKS BACK has some speed, goes for Diodoro, and draws between pace foes. One of those three is not good.

THIRD RACE

NORTHERN IOWA tried seven panels off the layoff and ran evenly while seven wide. That was actually a much better try than you might think. Now he gets back to two turns and tries easier. Curious as to price. KISS SIN GOODBYE is a deep closer that has won twice on this dirt. Race flow is only average though. We like Hernandez on these types of runners. STRUT N SWAGGER has some tactical speed which will help with this post. One work is all that is required by the bosses here. This gelding has yet to try this dirt but does go for the leading barn. Any horse that can win at Oaklawn obviously fits here. The one to beat.

FOURTH RACE

SUAVESGIRL doesn’t try the grass very often but when this 8YO does it is always on this sod. Hey, her Beyer top came on it. The Kauffmann barn is 21% on the grass and show a flat bet profit ($4.40 for every $2 wagered, nice). This mare seems more than capable when fresh while local works are very sharp. DANCER’S NOTES has never missed the exacta on this sod. Not our favorite post out of the chute. This 3YO faces older and is a state-bred. The good news is a lively pace and a jock that has won on her before. ENTITLED STAR likes this sod. She will have to break in a new jockey and we’re none too sure that she can fire off a layoff. WEB OF DEMONS goes for Scott Stevens who just celebrated his 65th birthday (we’re kidding...64th). Sire is 0 for 7 with debut turf runners. Her dam never tried the turf. Two sibs tried the grass and neither won but one did hit the board. Mr. Stevens is in his 50’s and we shall say no more.

FIFTH RACE

BE MY SHADOW fits nicely at this level. His most recent was versus tougher and that effort was better than it looks. Versatile style is a plus and we like Ramgeet getting a leg up for Ms. Lund (21% J/T). A. P WILD is the inside speed and he holds the rail with any kind of a decent break. Other speed is a worry but what did you expect going five panels? UNSTOPPABLE COLBY is proven on this dirt and likes to win in general. He has some zip but we expect him to come from off the pace in this spot. If so, then the 2 hole is a good draw. Diodoro and Stevens are a tough combo to beat.

SIXTH RACE

It is difficult to get excited about this race but at least it is a full field. NANG NOI may not have cared

for two turns two back. Her most recent on a real dirt surface was solid. Maybe the blinkers help and she does get an extra half furlong today. C. C. TOP was actually OK on the grass at Belterra in her first few starts. We say her last few on the dirt were better. The long ride here is the X factor but it is still nice to see Mr. Corbett get a leg up. GLORIOUS

GREY has solid figs of late and figures to get a lot of play. New Mexico shippers aren’t our favorite and we have been handicapping this track for a very, very, very, long time.

SEVENTH RACE

CALLINGAHARDTEN, today’s best bet, gets a ton of speed to chase. Cby lines only darken his form and that is great for today’s price. He clearly prefers this sod. The last two times that Jake Barrton rode this gelding he got Beyers of 77 and 71. The rail draw is a bonus. MYSTORYNMSTIKNTOIT is in good form and has shown an affinity for this sod. He chased a lone F two back in Yes by Gold. He out ran his odds last out when third at 26-1. If able to relax early and not get caught up in quick splits then he is as good as anyone. WHICH MARKET would be our top pick if not for the fact that he is stuck way outside. He can fire fresh and he is 3 for 6 on this sod but post is a killer at this distance.

EIGHTH RACE

SHREWD MOVE has never felt better and is working up a storm. Since when has this gelding ever been good on the grass? Can’t fault connections for taking a shot in recent stakes at Del Mar but that isn’t his forte. There isn’t a ton of speed in here but there doesn’t have to be for this guy to trip out best. Perhaps this 5YO has turned a corner since last seen here. KAABRAAJ won this race last year and did so on the front end. He still has his speed and race flow is fine but current form isn’t as sharp this time around. JESSICA’S STAR figures a price. Does this gelding love a wet track or what. Route speed comes in handy on the cut back to an elongated sprint.

NINTH RACE

IZE IT is your late runner. We rather liked her comeback try in New Mexico. The equipment change can’t hurt. TRIPLE TEN comes in fresh and drops in class. She has some tactical speed. OPEN ENROLLMENT ran OK in her lone local start. She comes out of the common race with our top pick. This barn is 22% on the dirt. Hey they are 21% sprinting and 26% in claimers.