Recent track trends get test

ARCADIA, Calif. – Significant changes this fall at Santa Anita include a main track that is markedly slower compared to previous meets, and a turf course being used with greater frequency.

Final times on the main track have slowed by a second or more. The change is deliberate, for the sake of horse safety, and is a continuation of the slow-surface pattern at Del Mar.

This fall, the Santa Anita track is deep and tiring. Bettors have struggled. Favorites have won just 26 percent of the races on dirt, and the number of front-running winners has dwindled to a trickle in sprints – only 3 of 39 have been won by the pacesetter. Last fall, the rate was three times higher.

The shift in track profile is tested Thursday in race 6, a second-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares that is without a committed frontrunner. Theoretically, the scenario benefits pace-presser Avicii. In reality, late-runner Just a Little Hope also has a chance.

As for turf, Santa Anita fall racing is increasingly dependent on grass. Turf generally accounts for one-third of races in Southern California. This fall, 40 percent of races have been on grass.

Extensive use of the turf course requires moving rails in and out to preserve condition of the course. The rails are at the outermost 30-foot setting Thursday, creating a potential challenge for closer Winemenow, the most likely winner in race 7, a turf sprint allowance for California-bred fillies and mares. The first turf sprint Thursday is race 5 for maiden 2-year-olds. Below is a preview of three key races Thursday.

Race 5

Eskimo Roses finished in the money on dirt in his first two starts. So why the switch to turf? Two reasons, according to owner and trainer Mick Ruis. “He’s by Eskendereya, who is by Giant’s Causeway, and the bottom says turf, too,” Ruis said.

Ruis noted one other benefit of switching to turf: “We know we’re not going to meet any of Bob [Baffert’s] speedballs.”

Eskimo Roses finished behind Baffert-trained Soul Streit and St Patrick’s Day in his first two starts.

Other contenders include firsttimers Bartlett Hall, Fengari, and Scrambled. Scrambled is the first foal by Grade 1 winner Egg Drop. Trainer Phil D’Amato believes he will prefer two turns.

Race 6

Avicii has the tactical edge in this 6 1/2-furlong allowance, while closer Just a Little Hope, a last-out winner, wheels back in 18 days. Too soon? Not according to trainer Dan Hendricks.

“She seemed to bounce out of it great,” he said.

Hendricks noted that Just a Little Hope has two wins and a second in her three sprints, and said he likes that she drew the outside post in a field of seven.

Race 7

Winemenow was third last out going five furlongs at Del Mar, and she stretches to 6 1/2 furlongs in this statebred turf allowance.

“Five is too short for her at Del Mar,” trainer Mike Puype said.

Four turf sprints were run this meet with rails at 30 feet. Three were won by closers who rallied from the middle or back of the field, the other was won by a presser.

Secret Thorn, runner-up last out, is the one to catch. She breaks from the outside in the field of 10.