ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, MISS FREEZE

FIRST RACE

UNLOCK THE POTENTIAL debuted in a strong maiden on dirt to no avail; bred for the surface switch and appears to have found a pretty good spot for trainer who wins plenty of these races, though would prefer to have him go it alone rather than as part of an entry. REPETITIOUS was very rank early on in his career debut before failing to factor, and he was wide early before landing close to the pace in a race that went to closers last time; still hasn’t done much running when it has counted, but there may be something to him if he can learn to settle a bit early. WAGE ACCELERATION the mate of the top one, who is preferred; has run well with no excuses in two turf starts to date but will remain vulnerable to any lightly-raced rival with some ability going forward.

SECOND RACE

RIMANISEMPREFORTE dropped to this level and was easily best after a perfect trip over this course and distance last month; figures tough entering right back vs. a similar field at the same level. GOLD LACE two for three on turf since claimed by Maker earlier this year, including easy win vs. a weaker field last time; steps up a bit with good tactical speed. VASILIKA posted lone NY win in wire-to-wire fashion, but she is capable from off the pace, as well, and she is dropping back down to a better level for her after facing tougher in her last two starts.

THIRD RACE

MISS FREEZE has done no running so far this year, but she did return in a fast-paced sprint off the long layoff, and it’s difficult to want to hold the turf race against her; debut win was impressive while appearing to be a legitimately good effort, and she will be tough here if that is the proper race to judge her off. Took FROST WISE six starts to break through, but she has run well in all of her fast-track dirt sprints, including that last one when taking on an early challenge and battling to the end to prevail; speed plays. TAINTED ANGEL a bit cheap shipping back in off blowout Finger Lakes win, but her best race may be enough, and she may be the best closer in the field.

FOURTH RACE

RULE YOURSELF light on figures but eligible to improve with just the one start so far as a 3yo, and her races from last year are not bad, including tough trip debut and game wide run after a frontrunning winner in September; drops and stretches out for second start of the year. Like FUEL THE BERN getting back to turf after pair of flat races on the main track, as he ran pretty well in that career debut vs. a solid field; Lasix on to go along with the needed class relief. HERECOMESYOURMAN goes for hot trainer and is competitive on figures, but there were no excuses for him here last week after getting loose on the lead; may have simply been facing a better horse in that spot (84 Beyer for the winner) but that was a pretty disappointing loss.

FIFTH RACE

AWESOME QUICK finished last behind a few of these horses in that last one, but she was still in contention coming to mid-stretch of that race when she was put in tight and had to steady pretty hard, and incident from which she didn’t recover; likes this turf course and can contend with this field with the right trip. READY FOR SUMMER pulled off a surprising win on the stretch out upstate while first off the claim for a dangerous trainer; better turf sprinter a threat to go back-to-back. LAMONTAGNE raced on down the outside without threat while settling for 3rd behind VICKI’S DANCER in her first start off the claim; drops a bit for a trainer who hits at 30% second off the claim from a large sample, though most of that success has come on the main track.

SIXTH RACE

NEW YORK HERO didn’t show much speed but he raced on gamely for 2nd in promising career debut

going shorter; half to Upstart eligible to improve quickly for a trainer who is lights out with maidens after a star. MANGO M ran well first time out for a trainer who doesn’t crank them up, and did so while showing some speed over a difficult distance for a firster; stretches out after flattening out behind an impressive winner in his second start. DARK OPS took money in each of his first two starts before failing to carry on with much of a stretch run either time; well-bred colt tries to improve with some added distance.

SEVENTH RACE

TIZNOBLE failed to make an impact when cut back to sprint last time, but worth pointing out that he broke through the gate prior to the start of that race, and then was held up in a couple of spots down inside during the running; can do better stretching out and he has the speed to pull a trip. UNCLE SIGH stuck on the AE list, but like this spot, if he can get in, after getting in tight and having to steady on the turn in that last one, before racing on well too late. MARRIAGE FEVER a better dirt horse, but his turf form is acceptable, particularly his last two starts on this surface, and he has more tactical speed than some of the others in here.

EIGHTH RACE

Had been awhile for RUMBLE DOLL, but she kicked in with a good run through the final furlong to close that race down last time, and while she will take on some tougher horses in this spot, she can go with these with her good race, and seven furlongs is okay for her. ALL IN FUN didn’t fire after a three-wide trip chasing the pace on a steep cut back last time, but she is better than that, by a lot, and think this may be a nice distance for her. PORTMAGEE cut the pace and was no match for an impressive winner last time, which came off a short layoff; has run well over this distance in the past, and she becomes more dangerous the longer she can stay comfortable on the lead.

NINTH RACE

BAREFOOT ANGEL was just out-finished late after holding a stretch lead in his lone start as a 2yo; starts back on the drop with a positive trainer change, and doesn’t have all that much improving to do based on what his rivals have been up to lately. POM FREIGHT debuting in a field that did not come up too tough and doing so for a trainer who is underrated with 2yo first time starters in dirt sprints (7 for last 24, 29%, $6.30 ROI). PIO’S POSSE did no running in his lone start last year, but that race did feature a solid pace and a good field, and like the top one, he drops in class for his 3yo debut while getting a positive trainer change.