ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, BIG BOY BRUNO

FIRST RACE

TRUE MOTION’s pedigree offers few clues as to her ability to handle the turf — sire Munnings never tried the green, the dam lost in her only attempt and this is her first foal to race on the surface — but she does have speed in a race lacking same; worth a shot on that basis. JOEL’S SENORITA is the other pace candidate, and though she’s also making her turf debut she’s kin to Two Wonders, an 11-time turf winner; figures to be prominent from the start. CELTIC MOONLIGHT could be the main threat in the lane; tactical speed and inside post a plus.

SECOND RACE

ESKEN LADY makes her first start off the claim for a barn which is clicking at 37% with such runners, and that alone makes her a threat by default; the fact that she can rate and make one run is another plus, as she could fall into a nice trip behind a contested pace. RIBERENA stretches out to two turns and figures to be involved from the start; dangerous if loose. PURE BLISS is one of the other main speed, along with ELUSIVE HARMONY, making this short field a little long on pace; still, she has room to improve in her 2nd start off the layoff.

THIRD RACE

DEPUTY DORA didn’t get much pace help when last seen but there is some speed to her inside in this lineup, and she should get a much better set-up; that should lead to an improved effort, and she does have back figures that are good enough to win this. BIG DARLING has some tactical speed but she can also come from off the pace effectively; dangerous with a trip behind the contested pace. QUEENS QUARTERS was behind BOSSYATTA in their last meeting but she was hurt by a controlled pace, set by the latter; has room to improve given a better race flow.

FOURTH RACE

SHOT JAK was on the turf in two of his last three starts, and he does seem to be better on this surface; effort two back was on the dull side but if he can run to the race he put in four back he’s a threat. WISE WARRIOR, like the top, should be in position to take advantage of a lively pace up front; he’s been the victim of pace scenarios in each of his last three, as those sprints favored speeds, but with some help he could pick up all the pieces in the lane. EQUITY comes off a decent try, one which resulted in a Beyer good enough to make him a contender here; he doesn’t have a big edge in figures and may be best on the lead, however, and that makes taking a short price difficult.

FIFTH RACE

INDYS EMPIRE overcame a moderate pace to score in her last start, in August, and though she has been idle since her trainer wins at a strong clip with horses off this type of layoff; had a pace excuse two back, and a strange trip three back. SOBER ON SUNDAY eyes her third straight, and the Beyers she posted in those last two scores — and in her previous start, as well — put her squarely in the middle of this; should be ideally spotted just off the pace one again. DEVILISH ROMANCE makes her first start off the claim by Peter Walder, and that makes her a threat by default; clearly fits at this level despite the sub-par try in her latest.

SIXTH RACE

BIG BOY BRUNO had trouble at the start in his latest and he was behind a subsequent repeat winner two back, when he may not have gotten enough pace; that shouldn’t be an issue today, and he can score at a big price here if he gets a favorable set-up and a clean trip. WHERE’S THAT CAT is the main speed from the rail, and he’ll go a long way on the front end with a clean break and a loose lead; short price looms, however. STARSHIP DANNY will be looking to close late and she should be a threat here if she gets a good set-up.

SEVENTH RACE

JUST SASSY was off the board when last seen but that was a race flow which greatly favored the speeds in the race, with the closers at a disadvantage; likely to get a much better pace scenario this

time around, with speeds to her inside. LITTLE

BABY BELLA has steady turf figures, and while they are a little light she certainly has been consistent; she’s another who stands to benefit from the expected set up. EASTER ACT has good tactical speed and that should translate to another ideal stalking trip; Beyers are lacking considering the trips she’s gotten but she should fall into something once again here.

EIGHTH RACE

TUTTI SANNO comes off a nice score and his trainer, Reid Nagle, wins at a very high rate (36%) with horses making their 2nd starts off an intermediate layoff, as well as with last-out winners; capable of repeating, and he should be a square price. GALTON has some of the better Beyers in the field, including that most recent 92 he posted in stake company; obvious threat on the drop into a high-priced claimer. CHARLIE MOPS has speed and the hedge and will take them as far as he can on the lead; does have a tendency to tire late but if the fractions are slow enough he could go all the way on the front end.