ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, FLEET ADMIRAL

FIRST RACE

MARRIAGE FEVER didn’t earn much of a figure for his win at Saratoga last time, but that race continued a string of efforts that have been solid over a long series of races (he has finished 1st or 2nd in 9 of his last 13 starts) for hard-hitting 8yo who likes these middle-distance routes. FLOWERS FOR LISA blew out to a big win with career-best 91 Beyer in first start off the Navarro claim at Monmouth, then gave in after getting hooked into a duel with the eventual winner at Parx last time; projects for the right trip if he can sit off stretchout sprinter Marriedtothemusic early. PRAETEREO is not a turf horse, so won’t hold that last one against him, and in his two starts prior to that one he caught a wet track and then tried to get nine furlongs up at Saratoga; game win when narrowly prevailing over MARRIAGE FEVER when last over this course and distance.

SECOND RACE

FLEET ADMIRAL enters right back for the $40k tag after racing wide and failing to make an impact at this level last time, though think the winner of that race is quite a bit better than anyone he faces in this spot, and he had improved in his two starts prior to that race at Saratoga; has been taking back off the pace recently, but he is not slow early, and can get more forwardly-placed in this field as he switches to a more aggressive rider. SILKY WAY gave way readily after cutting the pace when stretched back out in distance in that last one, though he was pushed along early in that race before pulling clear, and he may be able to get a bit more settled in this spot, which may be enough to coax a better effort out of him. ARTIC STORM CAT was blown out by a heavily-favored MSW-dropper in his first start at this level upstate, and he fell just short after racing on even terms with the winner for much of the stretch run last time; he may be the horse to beat, but his margin for error is slim.

THIRD RACE

NAVISTAR worked a quick 10-flat prior to bringing $900k back in April, and he has fired a couple of bullets on the way into his debut for Pletcher; expecting his to be tough in MSW field where the experienced runners (there are only two) have some finding to do. Sharp connections paid up for MASK as a yearling, and Tapit colt has been training regularly since early September after missing some time over the summer (shows only one reported work in August); first two foals from this dam have combined to go 0-7. TIME ON TARGET a Distorted Humor colt debuting for a trainer who will be patient with his 2yos; steady line up of works on the way in, but he has yet to get out beyond a half-mile. DIRTY bred for speed on both sides, and he flashed that speed over a muddy track in his debut, before getting rolled over by the talented Entice (returned to finish 3rd in the Champagne with an 84 Beyer) in the stretch; like his experience, but he is likely to have to improve.

FOURTH RACE

MASCARELLO just 1-7 on grass so far, but he has been right there in his last five attempts on this surface, including that last one where he wound up behind horses down on the inside after being rated back to last in the early stages; can get himself into a better position than that, and he has plenty of races that fit in this spot. HELLO HOLIDAY posted lone career win when loose on an easy lead in his turf debut, but he backed that race up quite well vs. the likes of Bricks and Mortar in his next start; getting significant class relief for this after disappointing in pair of start vs. better recently. ESCAPE VELOCITY getting some class relief of his own back on turf after having two most recent starts rained off; caught a lucky bob to win his career debut in a blanket finish at Gulfstream, but he faced better there, and in his only other start on grass.

FIFTH RACE

SPECIAL DIVIDEND was scratched from an easier spot on Colombus Day, but he can contend with

these horses if showing up with her best race, which is not out of the question as she switches back to the main after appearing to get in a prep on turf off the layoff (Englehart, turf-to-dirt, past five years: 38 for 140, 27%, $2.27 ROI, 5 for 19 second off the layoff in that sample, $3.21 ROI); reeled off four straight wins prior to that layoff, three of them from the rail draw, and she rallied into a moderate pace to finish a good 3rd in that final race before hitting the sidelines. COURT

DANCER rode a gold rail to victory in her first start off the claim for a sharp trainer, and she hasn’t won since while spending most of her time with stakes company; tough dropping back to the level of the claim with speed. SHIMMERING MOON also has speed, and while she has improved lately, she may have a tough time dealing with COURT DANCER’s good race, assuming she brings it; did her best before cracking from up on a solid pace with Cozzy Spring (four straight wins on dirt) last time.

SIXTH RACE

Finally settled for SOGLIO in two-life claimer where I found every one of the eight entered for turf tough to trust. SOGLIO getting the class relief he probably needs now after failing to make a run despite a nice trip vs. some much better horses last time; stakes-placed 3yo seems unlikely to be getting any better from here, so the class drop is not too strongly negative. ITSABIGBOY is interesting switching to turf for the first time off the Brad Cox claim after running well in a pair of races rained off the grass upstate; half to a turf winner is out of a dam who was a stakes winner on grass in her career. NUTZFORBOLTZ appears to be facing a tougher field for the level this time, after coming strongly with momentum and being denied late in that last one; has improved noticeably on turf.

SEVENTH RACE

SCHIVARELLI stepping up in a race where several of his rivals are dropping down, but he has the back class to easily handle the rise, and he is doing so on the back of an easy win where he was geared down at the end; new trainer has a solid record off the claim so far (11 for 44, 25%, $2.59 ROI.). BLUEGRASS SINGER had run well in pair of high-priced claimers at Gulfstream in the spring before stepping back up into stakes company, but he did not run well when dropped back down off a shot layoff at Saratoga most recently; goes off the claim for an excellent trainer and his speed makes him dangerous in this race. DANCETRACK an unknown on dirt, but he ran well when turned back to sprint on turf last time in a race that, while won by a big longshot, featured a slow pace; has some pedigree for dirt being a First Defence out of a dam who is a sister the Grade 1 Malibu winner, Mizzen Mast.

EIGHTH RACE

HOLIDAY STAR had been a capable stakes performer going long prior to enduring an extended layoff at the end of 2015 and there is some question as to whether he can return to form, but he can have that first start back where he just went evenly late after getting into contention, and he was done no favors by staying in last time in a race that featured a strong pace for the distance, as he was never able to get any momentum up around the final turn, and was left with too much ground to make up late; threat if he can improve with two races behind him now. CALL PROVISION was on even terms rallying into a fast pace along with Get Jets in the AT Cole, before getting outfinished by that talented rival in the late stages, but that was another solid performance from NY-bred gelding who has improved as a 4yo; like him getting back out in distance for this. ROMAN APPROVAL ROMAN APPROVAL had been outfinished by CALL PROVISION and BLACK SEA in his last two starts, but he has run well both times while up on paces that were strong for the distance, and he was battling back gamely when collared at the end of that last one; makes them pay if he can get comfortable early.

NINTH RACE

HERE AND THERE had run well without winning in three starts since strong win off the claim for his talented trainer at the end of last year, and he came through with a strong effort to get back to the winner’s circle last time with the top last out figure in the field; enters right back in logical spot. LITTLE SCHMO returned from a long layoff in a very tough Parx allowance field and he was outrun right from the gates before failing to make an impact; appropriate drop for the second start back, and he was in good form prior to the layoff. THADDEUS struggled a bit to break out of the maiden ranks, which he managed only narrowly off the claim for this trainer, but he came right back to win again with a better performance two weeks ago, and he is also logically spotted as he now looks for three in a row; has good speed from the outside.