ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, UP THE ANTE

FIRST RACE

VOLODINA impressed with a first-out victory at Belmont. Allowed to settle, she finished with a flourish under confident handling for a horse so far back, giving the impression she should appreciate the opportunity to route in this race; sharp half mile breeze coming into this. STRONGER THAN EVER also won from the clouds in her debut with an eye-catching rally, though the quality of the field she defeated at Churchill didn’t appear as good as the group VOLODINA handled in New York. HARBOR LIGHTS hopped at the start of the Pocahontas, and ended up eating dirt when behind horses when buried in traffic on the fence - hindering her performance; watch for her to flash speed, as she did in her first race, a frontrunning victory at Ellis Park.

SECOND RACE

Shooting for value with NAUTIA, whose form has improved over her last four starts with the addition of blinkers. She is also returned to dirt, a surface on which she ran her best race over the summer when second at Ellis Park; above-average five-furlong work over this track in preparation for this race. BLUE RIDGE GIRL and AWESOME GAL are maiden $30,000 droppers that should benefit from facing bottom-level maiden $15,000 claimers after going unplaced in their last two starts. ‘GIRL ran better than ‘GAL last out by running fifth, while the latter was second, though ‘GAL did race over a sloppy track that she may have disliked. Both have the speed to be prominent.

THIRD RACE

BOURBON COWBOY might be underestimated somewhat coming off races at Canterbury, though he has shown he can run over just about any track; shipped from Chicago to run second in a couple optional claimers at Indiana Grand and Ellis Park this summer. MANHATTAN MISCHIEF is returned to the claiming ranks after a couple of lesser efforts in his last two races; blessed with speed and first or second in 15 of 25 races on fast dirt tracks. Late-running REIGNING CATFISH had a decent summer in Chicago, winning one optional claimer and placing in some other races. Although most of his experience has come on Polytrack, he is also a two-time winner on dirt.

FOURTH RACE

LA MAJESTIQUE plunges in class for a barn that does well with claiming runners, but is a tricky read given that she has raced exclusively in routes over her career and now sprints six furlongs; giving her the edge due to respect for the barn’s production with claiming horses. LIKE A HAINT has won her last three dirt races, though she was the recipient of a favorable head bob to finish in a dead heat most recently. All but one of her wins have come on the lead, though she did rate just off the pace once with effectiveness, though when on the outside; now on the rail. DIXIE LOVER rattled off three in a row behind fading to sixth in a hotpaced starter allowance last out; one of numerous speed horses in this lineup.

FIFTH RACE

UP THE ANTE ran a promising fourth of 12 when debuting in a Belmont Park maiden race, finishing 5 1/2 lengths behind a talented colt in War Chest in a well-rated contest. QUAIL HUNT also ran well first out, running a close third at Laurel Park, beaten a length by Archaggelos, who went on to win the Grade 3 Grey on the Woodbine Tapeta in his next race. VIOLENT STORM rallied belatedly to be seventh when unveiled at Kentucky Downs, and runners from there have performed at a high level this meet.

SIXTH RACE

FIREBALL SHOT is 0 for 11 but looks poised

to finally break thru with a victory against this maiden crew. He owns the highest fast-track Beyers and TimeformUS figures in the field, and he has shown he can route - while others in here have not. COMMANDEERING - second three times in his seven-race career, including once behind eventual Belmont winner Taprit - ran quickly two back in the mud at Saratoga but has typically posted ordinary figures in his races on fast tracks; competitive prior routes going shorter distances than today’s 1 1/8 miles, though he has weakened late. HUNTIN

BUDDY is a quick returnee who finished second in the slop in an off-the-grass race Oct. 8 here at Keeneland.

SEVENTH RACE

Late running FAIR POINT has experienced a quiet year in 2017, going winless in five races after a 2016 campaign in which she won four of seven while running second in her three other starts. Even so, most of her races this year have still been promising, including a close fourth last out in the Kentucky Ladies Sprint in which she was only edged a neck for the show by Morticia, recent winner of the Grade 3 Buffalo Trace Franklin County. WATCH THIS CAT comes here by way of California, where she proved an effective turf sprinter from Santa Anita to Del Mar; one of the numerous ones in the lineup that figure to show speed. TRIPLE CHELSEA was claimed by winning connections for $62,500 at Kentucky Downs from an optional claimer in which she ran sixth. Although that race was poor, perhaps she didn’t care for catching wet ground; ran fourth, beaten just four lengths, by Lady Aurelia here on firm turf in the spring.

EIGHTH RACE

CEDARTOWN has shown steady improvement in his four-race career, particularly once stretched out to routes and given Lasix; comes off a second at Delaware in which he was 13 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. UNCLE MOJO is another that seems to want two turns, which likely explains his presence here for Pletcher, rather than in New York; blinkers off after a second as the favorite at Parx. BATTLE COLORS ran to his quick works in winning first out in a sprint at Churchill; talented but gives up valuable experience.

NINTH RACE

FAULT has proven a highly rewarding claim for trainer Michelle Lovell and owner Agave Racing Stable, going from the $50,000 ranks to become a graded stakes winner this summer in the Grade 3 Pucker Up; arguably ran even better last out when third to Uni and La Coronel, two of the elite 3-year-old turf fillies in the country, when third in the Grade 2 Sands Point. JOURNEY HOME is a battle tested filly that was edged by a neck by the top choice when second in the Pucker Up; exits seven consecutive stakes. LOVELY BERNADETTE reversed her form in June when transferred to turf, and now has a record of two wins and two thirds from four starts on the grass.

TENTH RACE

SECRET SPEED sold well as a 2-year-old in training for $400,000 and has trained forwardly for his debut with quick works at Keeneland and Churchill for Team Casse. KAREN’S COVE chased the leaders to be a distant third in his debut at Churchill and has every right to improve following that experience. NAVY ARMED GUARD exceeded expectations in rallying to be third at 19-1 odds first out at Kentucky Downs despite losing ground on the backstretch, seemingly when intimidated and pinched in traffic; appears to have the pedigree to run as well on dirt as he did on grass.