ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, INDAVIDUALIST

FIRST RACE

INDAVIDUALIST wheels back in a week as lone speed in this $16k claiming N3L sprint. Though few main-track sprints the first three weeks of the meet were won by the pacesetter, INDAVIDUALIST has such a conspicuous pace advantage, and won with such authority last week, that he looks like the most probable winner on the card. GENTRIFIED drops in class and is reunited with the last rider he won for. Both wins by GENTRIFIED were on this racetrack; he will roll late. LINDANTE goes route to sprint and is another that will fly late.

SECOND RACE

A 2yo first-time starter sired by Curlin, CONCUR debuts with a solid work tab that actually began at the March sale where he was purchased for $500k. He breezed 10.20 at the sale; trainer Phil D’Amato has taken his time preparing the colt for his debut. He had two big works early this month, an easy work last weekend, and looks ready to fire first out. D’Amato is 10-for-59 with specialweight debut 2yos the past five years, a 17 percent win rate that produced a flat-bet profit ($2.11 per $2 win wager). CURLY’S ROCKET debuts for Bob Baffert; his half-mile gate work Sunday tuned him up for a big effort first out. CRAZY UNCLE RICK showed speed in his debut in a stakes, battling to midstretch before tiring to third. Good debut; he adds heat. Second-time starters ITALIANO and BIG AND LOUD also showed speed first out; they are eligible to improve.

THIRD RACE

Richard Baltas has the principals in this claiming turf route, with EXCESSIVE KID and SPANISH HOMBRE. Although he finished behind his stablemate the last two times they met, EXCESSIVE KID gets the call. He was claimed last out by Baltas, returns as a first-time gelding, and picks up hotriding Corey Nakatani in a race that sets up for his closing style. SPANISH HOMBRE returns to the claiming ranks; he defeated the top choice twice this summer at Del Mar and should get a good trip right behind the speed. The sprinter ROCKET FUEL looms the upset candidate, first time turf and stretching out for a trainer that has done well with this move. GENERAL IKE adds pace; he could sit second behind the speed.

FOURTH RACE

The first leg of the pick six is a maiden-claiming sprint for 2yo fillies, and a good spot to take a shot at a price. DIALED TO GO was a well-bet disappointment in her debut, and her stable is uncharacteristically chilly this meet, but this field came up light and is ripe for an upset winner. DIALED TO GO showed speed in morning works prior to her debut, but she failed to show gas first out and merely ran around the track. She adds blinkers for her second start, drops from maiden-80 to maiden-40, worked a half-mile from the gate last weekend, and should move up second time out. WILLOWS BABE is stuck on seconds, runner-up all four starts. She did it again last out, finishing more than nine lengths clear of third. She will roll late; one-turn closers did well the first three weeks of the meet over a surface that played unusually slow. MISS KITAEN was hammered to odds-on in her debut, bobbled at the break, and trudged up to finish second. Her figure came back soft (21 Beyer), but chances are she will improve with a race under her belt.

FIFTH RACE

TRIBALIST may have moved sooner than preferred last out, due to a riderless horse causing havoc. But TRIBALIST still ran well, runner-up in the G3 turf sprint. That followed an impressive comeback victory at Del Mar in which he overcame an impossible trip. The gelding drops into a turf sprint stakes for state-breds, and should get a

good trip behind likely pacesetter RICHARD’S BOY. The latter could be loose on the lead in a race that came soft on pace. Furthermore, he has run well repeatedly on this downhill course. The knock is his last two starts have been below his typically high standards, and the top choice beat him on the square two months ago. Win or lose, RICHARD’S BOY looks like the one to catch. GOLD RUSH

DANCER won the G3 Longacres Mile two back, then tossed in a clunker last out at Los Alamitos. A two-time stakes winner on grass, he shortens in distance and will be rolling late. CALIFORNIA DIAMOND has some speed; longshot EL TOVAR is fresh and returning to the downhill course on which he posted two upsets during the springsummer meet.

SIXTH RACE

First-time starter MISCHIEVOUS SONG makes her career debut in an apparently weak maiden-40. Her works suggest she has ability; trainer David Hofmans pops occasionally with firsters. Most important, ‘SONG is a new face in what looks like a weak race. FRACAS could go favored, dropping from special-weight to run for a claim tag for the first time. Her speed figures are fast enough for this level, she has run well on dirt. The knock is price. Her odds could be low, and she lost three times already at short prices including twice as the favorite. Those were special-weight races, however. GRAY DIVA chased and tired in her debut against better company. She drops in class, adds blinkers and is likely to move up with a race under her belt. SHOOK debuts for another trainer whose debut maiden-claiming runners are often ready to roll. The last 14 maiden-claiming firsters trained by Phil D’Amato produced four wins, six seconds. Bettors that are trying to beat the favorite are obliged to include SHOOK, along with the top choice.

SEVENTH RACE

Many contenders in this $12.5k claiming sprint, and the “best horse” faces challenges including a track profile did not favor his front-running style the first three weeks of the meet. Furthermore, CHERUBIM must shake away from another with the same style. The positives are CHERUBIM has never raced at this low level, and has survived pace battles in the past. SWISS MINISTER has an upset chance. He is 4-for-7 at Santa Anita, has a pressing/stalking style that could lead to a cozy trip just off the speed, and his most recent start was better than his sixth-place finish position suggests. He was squeezed and away slowly, raced four-wide through the turn, then died on his run. Not bad, all things considered. SWISS MINISTER could start at generous double-digits odds; he is qualified to upset. LAMBO LUXX might be slightly over his head at the $12.5k level, but he also has run well on this track. He returns from a two-month freshening after being pulled up last out. SWEETWATER GAL will roll late, though his three wins were all at five furlongs. It is uncertain if his rally will be as effective at six and a half. FRAC CANDY was re-claimed last out by Bill Spawr. That might negate concerns that include dropping off a claim, and only two published works since early August. GUY CODE is the aforementioned pace rival for the top choice. Interesting race.

EIGHTH RACE

Dirt is a new surface for PACIFIC WIND, but the graded stakes-placed turf filly appears to have trained well over the surface and her pedigree suggests dirt is fine. She was sired by Curlin; her dam was a multiple stakes winner on dirt. Dropping out of the G1 Del Mar Oaks, though facing older fillies and mares for the first time, she can wear down the speed ndif she runs as well as she trains on the main track. SPOOKY WOODS and LA FORCE are established main-track allowance fillies, each with a forwardly placed style that has produced more winners at a mile and a sixteenth this meet than any other distance. Going into the week, five of the nine races were won by the pacesetter. SPOOKY WOODS set a blazing pace last out, but got worn down by the filly that was dogging her every step. Four consecutive thirdplace finishes by SPOOKY WOODS make her a little tough to trust, but she will be in the thick of it all the way. A similar comment applies to LA FORCE, who pressed a strong pace last out at Los Al, ran second, and finished more than 11 lengths clear of third.

NINTH RACE

Runner-up two back vs. maidens, followed by a decent sixth in a stakes, SCAT HOME LADY returns to the maiden ranks as the one to beat in this turf mile for 2yo fillies. Each start better than the one before, her pressing style could be more effective on the fast Santa Anita turf, rather than Del Mar. TEMPLE PRINCESS outran her odds first out, third by a neck at 40-1. Maidens from this stable tend to improve with racing; the filly’s 24-andchange final quarter makes her arguably the best finisher. IPPODAMIA’S GIRL returns to preferred footing (grass) as an upset candidate. Her debut on turf at Ellis Park was a solid runner-up finish; she misfired second time out on dirt. The sibling to G1 winner Georgie Boy is probably better than her most recent start suggests. BLESSED UNION should improve following a decent fifthplace