ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, HIGH JINGO

FIRST RACE

CURTIS is likely to find this race tougher, but he was impressive while just cruising around the track off the claim last month, and that race came back fast; be no surprise to find him backing that race up here. JAVELIN was an easy winner on a class drop at Saratoga after holding his own in some tougher races to begin his career; hasn’t been seen since that winning effort, but he trained right along and breezed a bullet leading into this. HOLDING ACES bumped up to this level at Saratoga following a sharp win vs. two-life claimers, and he did his best there while failing to find enough when the real racing started; steps up for another shot after dropping to easily handle a weaker field last time.

SECOND RACE

NEWS ANCHOR acted a bit green before getting untracked too late in his Saratoga debut, and, while taking nothing away from a pretty strong longshot winner in that last one, he felt a little unlucky there while getting a ride that lacked any real urgency, before finishing up very well too late; supposed to be tough here. GOTHAM’S STORM was rated back off a solid pace and then just raced on through the stretch behind an impressive winning stablemate in his debut; expect some improvement in starts #2. PERFECT EXPECTATION was also a big price when making the lead and getting overpowered late by a 73:1 winner in his first start, and then holding 2nd over a too late NEWS ANCHOR, but he ran well in his own right for an excellent trainer.

THIRD RACE

Shorter is better for HAMMERS VISION, whether it be on turf of dirt, and he has the kind of tactical speed which should land him a nice trip up close in this race, assuming he is close to ready off the layoff; dirt sprints are few and far between, but they are the best races he has run, so far. EIGHTY THREE got in a start back in July (where he failed to make an impact), but he is otherwise off a layoff similar to HAMMERS VISION’s; was holding good form over a long series of races prior to the layoff, and thought his effort for 3rd in modestly-paced race in April was underrated. GREAT STUFF got his prep race in off of his layoff, and it was a good one while closing strongly through the stretch on his wrong lead all the way to get up at Parx; not much pace in this race to set him up, but he can overcome that if stepping forward a bit.

FOURTH RACE

CULTURE CARRIER stretching out and stepping up after debuting for a $40k tag with no takers, but he looked like a horse who badly needed that first start while racing greenly to drop back out of contention early, before gathering momentum in the stretch and finishing fast; will have to improve here, but is eligible to do so, and that may have been a stronger-than-average MCL with the 1-2 finishers both returning to win with improved figures. JAHAAFEL has been outfinished in each of his first two starts without excuse, but he also ran well both times while earning the best figures in this field; stretches out. IM THE CAPTAIN NOW has had his chances already, and he also lacks excuses, but he tends to be around it late and he is proven at the distance.

FIFTH RACE

GUICK was bumped at the start to wind up at the back of the field early when last seen at Saratoga, but he raced on gamely after a class-dropping winner (83 Beyer) in that spot, before getting outfinished late; looks tough with just a similar effort in this field. LIGHTNING BUZZ a little light on figures, assuming the top one shows up with his best, but he fits well at this level, and he can race close to the pace. BAR NONE has been no match in any of his three starts off the claim, and it’s hard to get too excited about him after he was outfinished by a 75:1 shot last time, but he did face a couple of sharp winners prior to that one and he turns back for this.

SIXTH RACE

HIGH JINGO looked good while overcoming a steady on the turn to win her turf debut upstate, and while she had no real excuse in that last one, I would have liked to see her get a more aggressive ride there after making the lead; well-spotted to have another chance. ITSINTHESTARS did have a bit of trip behind HIGH JINGO two starts back, but in reality, she had her chance at that race late without finding enough, and she did not run well last time after an outside trip; blinkers on and she is clearly a contender, but she will be no price here as part of an entry, and she just isn’t that good. LAURA’S PATRIOT an unlikely winner at 1 for 32 lifetime, but she has been in form all year and can run late again for a piece.

SEVENTH RACE

SOUPER TAPIT a talented 3yo who has missed the entire summer, which is just one of the questions surrounding him in this spot, but he is a horse to keep an eye on going forward based on his first four starts, even if he turns out not to be a turf horse. Bred to handle grass, and this is a pretty confident spot off the layoff without getting too ambitious with colt who buried a good horse off a different kind of surface switch in the Marine. LET’S GET LOUD never looked comfortable sprinting on turf, and he improved noticeably when stretched out at Saratoga, even if he avoided all the traffic trouble in the stretch while powering clear in that last one; horse to beat for trainer winning with everything at this meet. LUNAIRE was one of the horses who was badly compromised behind LET’S GET LOUD at Saratoga, and he returned to put in a menacing run before flattening out late last time; blinkers on.

EIGHTH RACE

SANDY’Z SLEW didn’t run his best race off the claim for sharp connections last time, but he certainly could have benefitted from a more aggressive ride in that spot; as it was, he rated the break to race in behind an easy pace in that spot, before getting out-kicked late, and he can do better here if going forward from the start. ROBEY’S BOY an interesting new face to crew of horses who have been languishing at this level for a while, and he has really improved since switched to turf with blinkers for his last three starts; doesn’t project to have much pace to run at here, but he has put a strong kick on display while winning two of his last three in Maryland. MANOFFIRE will also be trying to close late into what may be a tough setup, but he has run better than it looks in his two starts since returning from a layoff for a talented trainer.

NINTH RACE

MOVIEMAKER has found a potentially loaded MSW field for her second career start, but she looked like a filly who would appreciate more distance after coming wide and racing on gamely late in her debut; expect better for trainer who is strong stretching out 2yo maidens on turf after a start (5 for his last 19, $4.26 ROI). MOI dangerous as a $750k full-sister to Mrs McDougal, who won multiple graded stakes on turf for this trainer a couple of years ago, and currently has almost $500k in the back; Chad lights out with 2yos debuting in turf routes at this time of year at Belmont. SPECIAL TRIP exits same race at the top one, and she is one who deserves another chance after enduring a very tough trip in that spot, before finishing with some interest way too late; interested to see what she can do if she can work something out this time, and she should be a fair price.