ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, TIL THE END

FIRST RACE

Hard to look past SOUTHERN CAL who ran great in his debut even though it was two turns on the grass which is a tough spot. Time off is a bit scary and his return try was nothing to write home about but it was sprinting. Connections find the easiest of spots. NEVER BURN A COPY has some route figs from before his most recent layoff that would normally win this. Penchant for less is glaring. Lack of speed is no help either. The good news is that he gets to try a new sod and maybe that is all he needs. LOOKINOVERUS is just a grinder. He gets a weight break today.

SECOND RACE

MARIEALENA ran OK in her debut and has every right to improve second time racing. Did you know that four of five sibs beat winners? Trainer stats are great across the board. POWER JAK has speed in a race without a ton of it. Not sure what happened in second start when made the favorite. The way that she spit the bit hints that something might have gone awry. A good spot to bounce back and reward chalk players. PROSPECTIVE MOMENT just ran better and it was first time on this dirt. Jaramillo and Zayas switch places today. MRS. MCGILLICUDDY is by a 4% debut sire. Her dam went 9-1-1-0 for 6K. Lone sib is 11-1-1-3 for 33K.

THIRD RACE

TIL THE END, today’s best bet, is a new turf horse that is also bred to love the grass as that 380 Tomlinson can attest to. So why doesn’t this horse try the grass more? He goes for a 4% turf barn so maybe that has something to do with it. He was stuck outside two back and then rallied between runners and that ain’t easy. Toss those slop tries 1, 3, and 4 back. We are going to get a good price, right? GIANT’S VOICE is the speed and with an inside post should hold the front on to the backstretch. Could we see a repeat of his most recent? Why not. Second time this sod can’t hurt any. SALUTATION might be better with a target and that isn’t a problem if all stay in. Does he get first run on the speed or does our top pick? Either or sounds like a good trip to us.

FOURTH RACE

BEAUKATI could have bounced last out but more likely is that 6 1/2 furlongs is too far for him. Form cycle hints at better and he won his lone local start. INDIANA COWBOY is the value. He did win his lone local start while most recent was a tad better. We like the cut back in distance. It wasn’t that long ago that Pilotti had this gelding feeling great (6 and 7 back). PANAMEX wants and needs the umbrellas to come out. Without them ....

FIFTH RACE

FIRST DEGREE BURN is by a 14% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. Lone grass sib is 5-1-0-0 and earned 18K. First time gelding helps explain drop in class. Former Baffert runner did get a 69 Beyer in his debut and at a not so easy 7 panels. Let’s see what this guy can do on the grass before calling him a bust. ROYALSTON is by a 3% debut turf sire. His dam went 10-0-1-1 on the sod for 10K. Here is the good part: 3 of 4 sibs won on the grass and all 3 beat winners with top mark of 941K. This barn is 22% with second time maidens. KING MAURO drops in class and has some back figs that figure. BOBBY RED is by a 1 for 13 debut turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first grass foal.

SIXTH RACE

ILLUSTRIOUS SON either hated the slop or bounced last out. This gelding is an elongated sprint special-

ist. He can handle the wet if needed. Things would be best if he wasn’t fractious behind the gate this time around. BRAVE ENRIQUE gets good race flow. We don’t like the rail going this distance but he wants to pass runners anyway so maybe the break isn’t as important as for a speed horse. THREE

STAR STONE is just better of late. New barn is 17% off the claim. You don’t see too many claims for 19 race maidens so maybe something is up here.

SEVENTH RACE

LITTLE TOE is by a 16% debut sire (sire debut stats are for 2YO’s only while first turf are for all ages) and 6% debut turf sire. His dam went 7-3-0-1 for 95K (no grass). Of 7 sibs to race, 6 won and 4 beat winners. Three sibs tried the grass and all lost but one did hit the board. This is a tough spot going two turns on the grass but there is just something about this colt that we like. IRWIN popped and stopped in his debut so nothing wrong with that. Four of seven sibs won on the turf with two best earning 155K and 693K. New rider is noted. ANIMAL KINGSTON just figures. Nice to see a recent work. The one to beat. PONY UP is by a 0 for 8 debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. All 7 sibs lost on the grass. Note the poor start in dirt debut. AEQUOR is by a 9% debut turf sire. His dam went 16-3-2-0 on the green for 83K. All 4 sibs won on the grass. SILENT TIGER is by a 10% debut sire and a 6% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-0-0 (1 grass start). Lone sib is 28-1-7-4 for 29K (5K on the grass).

EIGHTH RACE

TO JOE didn’t do much in his debut but it was two turns on the turf and he isn’t bred to like the grass anyway. Now connections drop in class and cut back to a dirt sprint. Perfect...just like the ‘72 Fish. Fun fact, 6 of 8 sibs beat winners. STORM PROTECTION is by a 17% debut sire. His dam went 11-1-5-2 for 35K. Three of five sibs won with two having beat winners. LOVEWORSHIPSPEACE just ran much better and it came on this dirt. Not sure we will see as much speed with the full furlong cut back.

NINTH RACE

SUCCESSFUL NATIVE just ran a 91 Beyer so the long layoff is now a thing of the past. Race flow could not be any better and this horse even draws well. BLACKJACK BABY is another that can pass runners. He has gotten very good since plying his trade only in turf sprints. Let’s call him a specialist and move on. APACHE BRAVE is feeling good. He has won on this sod before. This gelding has more speed than our top two picks but we think he is tractable.

TENTH RACE

BANZAI CHARGE hopped at the start last out yet still hit the board. He was troubled two back also. He is a proven turf sprinter that loves this sod and draws inside. Race flow isn’t the best but then again these are only 8K foes. TEXAS RUSTLER has won half his local turf starts. A bit surprised that his most recent wasn’t better. Maybe that good sod was the culprit. Nice to see Zayas keep the faith. SUM ROAR is better of late. Second time with new barn can only help. At times, this mare has some turf speed. We don’t really like this post. What’s up with facing the boys? It didn’t hurt any previously.