ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, HARDCORE TROUBADOR

FIRST RACE

First post 12:30, Del Mar opening day. Frontrunner ROCKET HEAT can be long gone in this fivefurlong turf sprint. The speed of the field, four-time winner on this layout, he figures to pop the gate and lead as far as he can. The course played fair to all styles in summer: 8 of 25 turf sprints won by the pacesetter, 13 turf sprints won by horse that rallied from second half of field. MR VARGAS also has speed, and likely will be positioned second. If the top choice falters, MR VARGAS would be first to attack. He finished second by a neck in his only start on this course. If the top pair get in each other’s way, then deep closer BRANDO THE BARTENDER has a shot from the back of the pack. He ran well all three starts on this course. He will fly late. INCENSED drops after a runner-up finish in a N2X at Golden Gate; comebacker GREEN WITH EDDIE adds more speed.

SECOND RACE

TRIBAL JEWEL runs best with a target to chase; he finished second last out when he was a reluctant pacesetter due to an inside post that dictated a front-running strategy. The effort was better than it looks; he was the only front-runner to stick around. The veteran drops a notch to $20k claiming, he drew comfortably in the middle of the field and meets a field with pace for him to chase. Furthermore, TRIBAL JEWEL won 4 of his last 5 dirt routes at Del Mar. OUT OF PATIENCE was unable to keep pace at five and one-half furlongs last out. At this stage of his career, he is more effective at longer distances such as this onemile race. He is a logical contender stretching back out to two turns. KRISTO drops again, from first-level allowance. For what it’s worth, he was the workmate for Breeders’ Cup Distaff favorite Stellar Wind on Saturday. Stellar Wind “won” the workout.

THIRD RACE

The improving maiden front-runner HARDCORE TROUBADOR can wire the field as most probable winner on the card. He set a blazing pace last out, led to the eighth pole, then faded to third. It was a big effort; winner Desert Law returned two starts later to win a state-bred allowance by more than five lengths. ‘TROUBADOR continues to work fast for trainer Ed Freeman, adds blinkers, gets in light with a seven-pound apprentice rider, and is the speed of this Cal-bred maiden race. Long gone. WILD LANDO showed promise his only start in March, runner-up in a state-bred maiden-50. He returns with a steady work pattern and secondhighest dirt figure (68 Beyer) in the field. HOLLYWOOD SQUARE makes his debut with okay works for a stable that does not typically work them fast.

FOURTH RACE

HANDFUL OF STRIPES faded in the lane all six routes, but this is his first start at the bottom level ($16k claiming, non-winners two lifetime). The gelding stretches back to two turns following a pair of comeback sprints against better, adds blinkers, and is likely to make the lead. Come and catch him. EXCAVATION also drops to the bottom for the first time, while making his first start in two months. His runner-up finish on this track in July would make him tough to beat. In that $25k claiming N2L route, he finished more than 10 lengths clear of third. SPECIAL STORY raced over his conditions last out, runner-up in a N3L claiming route. That improved effort was his first off the claim by Mark Glatt, he drops a notch to N2L. RINGS OF JUPITER will pick them up late.

FIFTH RACE

Claimed for $62.5k from a maiden win on this turf course in July, TWEETING actually ran well in her recent comeback at Santa Anita. She lost a ton of ground into the lane, finished well late and missed by two lengths in a good prep after a two-month break. That race was against 3yo fillies; she faces older fillies and mares in this N1X turf route and is likely to improve second start back. Also-eligible BE MINE runs Thursday in race 5. WEST COAST BIAS will welcome a return to two turns; she ran

well both starts on this course during the summer meet. The sprinter DOMINATING WOMAN will take them as far as she can, first-time turf and firsttime long.

SIXTH RACE

PURE PURSUIT is better than his off-the-board debut suggests. The 3yo gelding had shown speed in workouts, was well-backed at 2.70-1, but lost all chance when he was squeezed at the start and away last. He actually ran well afterward, finishing fifth of nine while racing greenly through the lane. That turf sprint was two months ago, he worked well on dirt in the interim, adds blinkers for his first start on dirt, and with a clean start should show more speed. STEELY RESOLVE, an $875k purchase last year as a 2yo, makes his long-awaited career debut off a San Luis Rey Downs workout pattern that suggests he is ready to roll. LIGHTHOUSE POINT broke slowly and finished nowhere in his debut, but he trained well since then and is likely to improve with a race under his belt. MOMMA’S BABY BOY might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He earned creditable speed figures during the winter meet; this is his first start since February and his workout pattern looks solid.

SEVENTH RACE

Emerald Downs-based MONY DONT SPENITSELF was sent to Southern California for a specific reason. That is, to test his turf pedigree. If he runs to his bloodlines, he can upset this $75k stakes at a mile on turf. ‘MONY is by the excellent turf sire Street Boss; he is a sibling to G1 winner/BC Filly & Mare Turf contender Zipessa. Mark Glatt is the gelding’s new trainer; ‘MONY has worked well for his local debut and his (dirt) speed figures compare favorably to his rivals. MASTER MERION returns from Kentucky with a three-race win streak. He won a first-level allowance on the Del Mar turf course in summer, followed by a $250k stakes at Kentucky Downs. He has won setting the pace, he has won rallying from last, and looks best of the shippers. He could start favored. HOLIDAY

STONE finished third last out in the stakes won by MASTER MERION. It is possible that HOLIDAY STONE prefers to rally from behind, rather than set the pace as he did last out.

EIGHTH RACE

MEET AND GREET crushed maidens by more than seven lengths in her career debut; this Cal-bred N1X sprint is within reach. The race she won was somewhat validated when the third-place finisher returned to win. MEET AND GREET also has an interesting trainer stat in his favor. Over the past four years, Phil D’Amato-trained debut winners are 11-for-28 second time out, first vs. winners. The 39 percent win rate produced a $3.21 return for each $2 win bet. DREAMY GAL finished more than three lengths clear of third last out at this state-bred allowance condition. The high-figure (last start) filly could start favored again. She lost her last two starts as the chalk. GOTHAM DESIRE makes her first start since nd March, and first on dirt. Early this year at Golden Gate, she ran wild both starts. She won her debut by 15 lengths, followed by a win in a starter allowance route. She has never worked, nor raced, on dirt. But she is fast, as her February debut indicates.

NINTH RACE

The outside post is a challenge for KAZAN in this turf route for 2yo maidens, but after running in a pair of stakes, he will appreciate a drop to the maiden ranks. He ran well on this course in summer, and can sit, wait and blast home late for the win. FORMAL DUDE finished will for fifth in his debut, a slow-pace race that was pretty much dominated by forwardly placed runners. The Del Mar course tends to be more kind to late-runners. With a race under his belt, improvement expected. BIG BUZZ gets a rider switch to Corey Nakatani; he will roll late.