ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, FIREBALL SHOT

FIRST RACE

CIRCLE UNBROKEN looks like the type that needs TLC and time between races, but he is typically quite tough at his home base of Churchill Downs, having gone 4 for 8 here; just won for this $16,000 tag. DRAXHALL WOODS, claimed from four consecutive races, was somewhat disappointing when second last out at Keeneland for $10,000 when seemingly the class of the race. Still, he ran competitively, which is to be expected from a horse that has hit the board in 32 of 54 career starts. LET’S MEET IN RIO starts for a winning trainer in Chris Hartman, and though his recent Beyers don’t jump out, he does have back class.

SECOND RACE

ALFREDO didn’t show much in his lone race at Gulfstream Aug. 20, but his connections were asking much of him to ship down to Florida in the heat of the summer for his debut after training in Kentucky; gets class relief for maiden $15,000 and should benefit from that debut experience. SCHLIFFY looms the likely favorite after a distant third against better maiden $20,000 stock in a surprisingly fast race here at Churchill in the September meet. SAFARI HEART was outrun first out with a sixth at Keeneland, but against classier maiden $30,000; is a filly facing the boys, though that is something trainer Wesley Ward does regularly, though more often early in the year in sprints with his juveniles.

THIRD RACE

OSTENTATION likely bounced when sixth Oct. 15 at Keeneland after a fast-closing second here Sept. 21 in which he had run a career-best 77 Beyer off the bench; now dropped in class and back running over the track where he posted that career-best number. PRIVATE PARTY set blazing splits in a Sept. 29 race here and kept going to win by 5 12 lengths, though that came going cheaper and around one turn; now tries tougher and is in a one-turn race, leaving him open to regression. KID SADOVE had a productive summer and fall in Indiana while capitalizing by racing against Indiana-bred opposition; comes off a win going 5 1/2 furlongs but is a horse just as capable running longer distances.

FOURTH RACE

FRIGIDISH gets class relief after a speed and fade in her first start against winners for $20,000; now plunges to the $8,000 N2L ranks; fast win two back at Ellis over a next-out winner. Fellow dropper VIENNA ROSE is speedy and ran quickly when breaking her maiden last summer at Indiana Grand, but is unraced since Mar. 18 and tends to get fatigued when racing today’s distance of six furlongs. Laterunning MIZZENCAT won over this track in September before running in an allowance on the turf at Belterra and finishing seventh; lacks speed and both of her dirt Beyers only fall in the 40s. DRF Formulator PPs, available only at DRF.com

FIFTH RACE

Not enthused about backing anyone in this race... taking BUNNY BOSS on top because she starts for a winning barn whose second timers often improve dramatically when they struggle first out. That was the case with her - she lost by over 33 lengths. FLATOUT HAPPY is speedy and starts for Asmussen, who has been the most dominant 2-year-old trainer in Kentucky this fall; two mediocre races to date, but mediocre might be good enough to win here. URAWESOMEBLOSSOM adds blinkers and is fittingly dropped in for a tag at Churchill after racing in straight maiden races at Belterra.

SIXTH RACE

Main-track only entrant FIREBALL SHOT stands out on recent form and Beyers if inclement weather results in this scheduled turf race getting moved

to dirt. He comes off two consecutive runner-up finishes that earned him speed figures in the 80s.

DREAMRIDER seems the best of the grass runners in here, a colt that was a close fourth at Keeneland Oct. 22 in which he was just a half length away from grabbing second. BIG BAD ZIN has respectable form aside from a failure going 1 1/2 miles at Kentucky Downs; fourth over this course in September and now gets blinkers off. PROUD DIXIE ran respectably to be third at Keeneland first off the claim for his new barn - a race that followed a runner-up finish over this track; narrow edge in a closely matched affair. MOOLAMISS was dull in finishing fifth at Keeneland, but now picks up Lanerie at Churchill for a new barn off the claim; ran a decent third in one try over this track last year, though by far her best race came on the Poly this summer at Arlington. DARION’S DREAM won at first asking in the spring here, but has gone unplaced in three starts since vs. winners; maybe a short freshening will aid her in returning to form.

EIGHTH RACE

MR. DISCRETIONARY has twice run third on the grass from as many starts on the surface; also was third on dirt at Saratoga before that — worth considering if by chance this race gets moved to the main track. WAR TOM ran a close third on the lawn here at Churchill Sept. 24 after a runner-up finish Aug. 29 at Indiana Grand in a turf sprint; Amoss barn has good numbers with blinkers-on runners. HEZA KITTEN looms a threat if he draws in from the also-eligible list after rallying to be fourth after a slow start when debuting at Keeneland Oct. 12.

NINTH RACE

SINGING BULLET has proven a cut below stakes quality, but seems a rock solid allowance horse; he won in the slop when sprinting here in June, and most recently was second at Keeneland going today’s distance of 1 1/16 miles. VAPORMAN won a similar race to this one Sept. 16, and remains at the same level by racing for a $62,500 tag under the optional claiming conditions of the race; 2 for 4 at Churchill, but Beyers mostly fall 4-5 points below the regular numbers of SINGING BULLET. RICH DADDY ran second behind 11-time winner LIEUTENANT SEANY O in a $50,000 claimer at Keeneland Oct. 12, a good race, though likely not one of his best; has steadily moved up the ranks this year for Kenneally and retains Corey Lanerie.

TENTH RACE

BINARY BOURBON is a maiden claiming dropper that starts for a winning trainer and jockey combo in trainer Brendan Walsh and jockey Corey Lanerie - who are an astounding 12 for 22 together at Churchill in 2016-2017. ROCK ON SANDY adds blinkers after a fourth and a fifth in two starts vs. better; was away slowly in her latest and can close the gap with an alert break. SHE’S FLAT OUT debuted with a near-miss second in the mud at Belterra before subsequently running a wellbeaten fifth there on a fast track; first time for a tag, though obviously Belterra straight maidens don’t compare to those in Kentucky.