ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, PULPIT RIDER

FIRST RACE

Breeders’ Cup Friday, first post 11:25 a.m. SILENT BIRD won this stakes race a year ago at Santa Anita with a pattern similar to this season. Away from the races since March, he returned in late August with a respectable third in a G2 sprint, trained well since including a big workout one week ago, and should fire his best shot second start back. LEADING SCORE does not start often, but in two of his last three starts he fired big off a layoff. This is his first in nearly two months; he should get a good trip pressing the speedster to his inside. For what it’s worth, his Oct. 28 work was a team drill with BC Distaff contender Abel Tasman. The filly “won” the workout. LOOSE ON THE TOWN did not have a good trip finishing fifth by two lengths in a G2 at Keeneland last out. He was shuffled back into the turn, re-rallied inside and hit heavy traffic in the lane. The race might not have been as good as the grade, however. MR. HINX is a tough Cal-bred who finished second last out in a G1; GOOD BYE GREG is the sprinter that LEADING SCORE will press. ‘GREG won a bunch of fast race on synthetic; dirt is new.

SECOND RACE

This N1X turf route is a good spot to take a shot at a price with START A RUNNIN. He frequently outruns his odds, won two of four on this course, and had an alibi for finishing last his most recent. The race unfolded at a not pace; the 1-2-3 pacesetters finished at the back. Although ‘RUNNIN meets other speed here, he has run well from slightly off the pace. Tab for a front-running/pace-pressing upset. TEMPLE KEYS is a legit threat from the back of the pack, first start since he was pulled up in May. Top trainer-jockey combo, and the gelding likes this turf course. His most recent win was a Cal-bred N1X here last fall. SOGLIO is an East Coast shipper facing modest West Coast turf horses. He is an automatic contender on the new-shooter angle. RITZY A. P. will roll late; CHEEKABOOMBOOM can improve off his sprint prep.

THIRD RACE

If he runs back to his devastating maiden win on this track in September, CITY OF LIGHT should win this N1X sprint. He regressed last out at Santa Anita, but returns to the track on which he blitzed maidens by more than seven lengths with a big figure. That means he is also a likely underlay. PRIME ISSUE is an 11-time winner entered for the optional $ 40k claim tag. He is 4-for-9 on this track. BOY HOWDY returns from a layoff as a first-time gelding; DONWORTH drops from G1 races to run for the $ 40k claim tag.

FOURTH RACE

Not many horses won sprints by eight lengths during the Del Mar summer. That is what PULPIT RIDER did in August. Based on her horse-for-course record, and an off-the-pace running style that suits this speed-filled field, PULPIT RIDER is the choice to win this $200k stakes for 2yo fillies bred in California. Her allowance win last out merely a bridge to this stakes. ISMELUCKY might be a better filly than her modest figures indicate. She won a restricted stakes last out following a four-month layoff, her recent works at Santa Anita have been increasingly sharp, and trainer Jeff Bonde is rolling. Since early September, Bonde is 14-for- 40. SPICED PERFECTION won twice here in summer including a similar state-bred stakes. Each start better than the one before, she returns from a two-month layoff as an obvious contender. SHOW IT N MOE IT was only prepping last out in a stakes vs. colts and geldings. Upset candidate. SMILING TIGRESS finally got a good trip last time out and parked against maidens. She might be this good.

FIFTH RACE

Runner-up by a nose in the 2016 Belmont Stakes, East Coast shipper DESTIN should appreciate the added distance of this mile and three-quarters