ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

SON OF MINE exits turf sprint try on a class drop where he showed nothing, and he, in fact, hasn’t had all that much to offer in his five career starts so far, but he has faced better on both starts on dirt, and the 73 Beyer he earned in his most recent try on the main track puts him on solid ground in this field; taking him, mostly because I don’t want anyone else. Do like that BAR NONE is turning back to sprint after failing to hold over a mile last time; don’t like that he was outfinished by a 75:1 shot in that race, even if he did have to race off a challenge before that longshot rival appeared; races two and three back are fine while in against sharp winners both times, and he has little chance over that speed-favoring track at Saratoga on 8/6. SECRET SCHOLAR hasn’t come close in pair of starts following a short freshening, but his form prior to that was okay, and he has some speed.

SECOND RACE

SHEZERFIRST a first-time starter by a sire who is off to a bit of a slow start from a limited number of runners, but she is a half to several good runners from this dam, the most recent being six-time dirt sprint winner Palladian Bridge (over $ 225k in earnings, so far), who posted a couple of wins for this trainer earlier in the year. CITY OF DREAMS flashed some brief speed and tamely gave way in turf route debut that went to closers; has the pedigree to sprint on dirt, and pairing turf to dirt switch with a cut back in distance for maidens has worked well for Ward in the past from a limited sample (5 for 17, 29%, $2.21 ROI). BEAUTIFUL BUZZ has speed on both sides of her pedigree and she goes for a trainer who is solid debuting dirt sprinters for a tag (past five years: 7 for 32, 22%, $ 3.44 ROI). SCATBACK went evenly in pair of turf sprints to start her career upstate, then tried a Finger Lakes stake to no avail in her main track debut; drops.

THIRD RACE

LADY JOAN tracked and rallied but couldn’t catch AMAZING ANNE on the lead in the stretch last time; may be better off going a bit shorter, but the slightly shorter distance of this race benefits her, and she can still come forward enough to reverse that last decision this time. AMAZING ANNE has re-found her form for these connections recently, and she enters this race having posted the three fastest figures of her career in her last three starts; had to be disqualified last time, but that takes nothing away from her effort. WILD ABOUT HARRY hasn’t returned in her best form so far this year, but she hits hard when she’s right, and she is versatile in terms of distance; class drop helps, though it may not be a great sign, and she needs some pace to be most effective.

FOURTH RACE

NAVAJO could hardly have found a better spot to make her stakes debut, and she may not have to do much more than was required when breaking her maiden last time to repeat in the Grade 3 Tempted; has run well in both starts so far, and steps up at the right time for a trainer who has been hot in NY recently, and who is excellent stepping up 2yos off of maiden wins (past five years, 2yo, maiden win last out, graded stakes: 5 for 6, $10.20 ROI). DAISY caught a sloppy track in her career debut and didn’t earn much of a figure, but she was impressive in that race while leaving her rivals behind under confident handling; steps up and stretches out. SWEET CANDY DANCE made a useful debut sprinting while lacking early speed, and she managed to build upon that race when stretched out last time, though she did have a perfect trip in the process; route win a plus, but she has to get faster.

FIFTH RACE

KACY LAUREN has been kept out of town for most

of this year, but she has been holding form right along and she was impressive while defeating what shakes out to be a weaker field two starts back; faced tougher when shipped back in last month, now drops back down for a trainer who, while 0-7 in NY this year, has had a couple of those horses finish 2nd at decent prices. KHALEESI KAT an infrequent winner, but she tends to show up every time, and she was unlucky not to prevail last time after getting caught in some stretch traffic; may be the horse to beat, but she needs a trip, as usual. Key to ROCKIN ALLI is class, as she has been competitive only when placed in the right spots, including last two NY starts vs. claiming rivals, where she posted a win back in April (albeit with an easy trip on a soft pace), and then finished a good 2nd to class-dropping Peru back in July; has speed to be forward, but doesn’t need the lead.

SIXTH RACE

HOKULEA makes something of a late debut after bringing $100k back in March, but she appears to be training forwardly in this race, and she may have found the right kind of field for a first-time starter; McPeek tends to get some of his best results after a race, but he can win first out, and actually has a positive ROI over five years with 2yo first-time starters in dirt sprints. SEA FOAM clearly the horse to beat, even if the clock is ticking for filly who hung on the money when trying turf last time; back to dirt, where she has shown speed while settling for second-best to a pair of solid winners, so far. GIO D’ORO debuting for a very sharp trainer, but one who hasn’t had all that much success with his 2yo first-time starters sprinting on dirt (past five years: 9 for 74, 12%, $ 0.98 ROI), and he was working on turf prior to shipping up here; dam is a sister to Cribnote, who was a promising 2yo a few years back.

SEVENTH RACE

BIG ZIP cutting in half after getting outrun in the slop at the end of the Saratoga meet, though based on prior results he can use the course condition as an excuse for that effort; thought he ran well for 2nd in his return from that long layoff, and his early form clearly makes him tough in this spot. SARATOGA HEATER prefers a wet track, which he is unlikely to get on Friday, but it’s not like he can’t run his race over fast dirt, and he is tough here with one of his good ones; drops in class off the Jacobson re- claim. FORTUITOUS PATH was badly off form before suddenly finding himself to post last-to-first upset at Belmont last time; not totally convinced that he can do that again in this tougher spot, but it’s not like he lucked into that win last time, and he clearly has the back races to make himself tough here if he has truly returned to form.

EIGHTH RACE

STRIKE MIDNIGHT was dropped sharply in class upstate after one disappointing run off a layoff, and came through with a strong performance that day in a race that was wired by a longshot; no factor when bumped back up off the claim, but he had no chance with Mo Town running away to a 100 Beyer blowout there, and he comes right back down in class for this. DADDY D T has focused on sprinting for most of the past two campaigns with mixed results, but he posted lone win during that time when dropped in class two starts back, and he earned a competitive figure for that victory; drops for trainer who has proven dangerous since seeling in NY earlier this year, though most of his success has come on the main track. CHEYENNE BULL had the pedigree to ultimately get a try on grass, and he handled it well when switched over back in July for a sharp trainer; has some ability, and fits well here, though he has displayed a lack of acceleration on turf which suggests he may ultimately be better suited to the main track.

NINTH RACE

CAROLINA SHAG getting the class relief she likely needs after trying four straight stakes following a nice win off an extended layoff, but worth noting that she actually ran well in all of those tougher races on turf, including that last one where she raced wide and then ran into trouble in the stretch; good fit at a price. FIRST OF SPRING looks like the horse to beat shipping in from France and getting a trainer change to Chad Brown; sharp winning first two career starts sprinting, which led to a chance in a prestigious mile race over there last fall, she arrives her to make her second start of the year with lasix on. FIRE KEY an underrated NY-bred who has continued her ascent since clearing her state-bred conditions this summer; figures contend, and she is versatile in terms of running style.

TENTH RACE

LUNE LAKE a first-time starter by a decent sire out of a dam who could run a little (2 career wins, both sprints, including maiden win with an 85 Beyer), and she had speed; Kimmel underrated with firsttime starters. VIRADIA debuted in fast-paced turf sprint upstate, and she never got involved after being outrun from the start; trainer among the best in this game with second-time starters, though she tends not to drop them in class right away if they can run, and this one does have much more of a turf pedigree on the dam-side; blinkers on. GO KELLY GO sat a trip and did her best with it before failing to have enough first time out; competitive again with any improvement.