ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SWAGGER JAGGER

FIRST RACE

TU EXAGERES is going to find these easier than he faced in his latest at Belmont and if you ignore his race at Saratoga you are looking at three solid efforts on the turf course across town. GQ COVERUP was in the mix early before fading going longer when he was coming off a layoff Sept. 20. The winner earned an 83 Beyer when he won the $ 40K Jack Flats in his next start, and this guy figures to move forward in his second start back for Nagle. MUD IN YER EYE showed more speed in his latest, which could mean he could be coming up to a big race, and, his third-place finish the previous time he ran on turf puts him in the mix.

SECOND RACE

JOJO’S SPENSIVE seemed a bit intimidated when he was between horses early but made a nice move to take the lead between calls when he moved to the outside. The winner took the short way home and this guy held on well in a muchimproved effort in his second start. He drew a nice post and looks capable of handing the small jump in price. MCMANAMAN set the pace in the same race and could take them a long way if he clears early. CREST OF EDEN was in tight early, and after dropping back was able to dead-heat for third when he dropped to this level last time. He could make some noise with a clean trip.

THIRD RACE

DINO DUDE almost took them all the way when he dropped to this level in his first start over this course Oct. 20. The lightly-raced 4-year-old has a right to take a big step forward here, and most of the ones he is facing have had a lot more chances. SEEKING FAST is the main threat. He has been right there in his last four races on turf and should be rolling late. He could get up time with a clean trip. FAMILY JUSTICE has improved in his last two starts, both on this track, and he should get a nice trip from a forward position. Use him in the exotics.

FOURTH RACE

POOPSIE DOOPSIE ran a big race in her first start for Rodriguez and looks capable of handling the small move up in class. The rail is no bargain but she is versatile so Batista should be able to work out a trip. CHARLIE’S SECRET figures to move forward in her second start back and she could be tough to run down if she clears early. She owns the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field and her new trainer has solid numbers with claimed horses running back the first time. RIBERENA is coming off a solid effort in a $ 6,250 conditional claimer and the runner-up won her next start in an $ 8K claimer on the lawn. She figures go get a nice trip from a stalking position and would be a bit more attractive if she wasn’t a vet scratch Oct. 19.

FIFTH RACE

CLOSE THE DEAL ran well in both of her starts with straight maidens and will appreciate the easier company with the move into a maiden claimer for the first time. The runner-up in her latest earned a 70 Beyer when she romped in a MSW race on grass here Oct. 7. LOVELY SUNSET finished full of run in her sprint debut on the main track and she is out of a mare who won three routes so the added distance should be an issue. Not sure how she will handle running on turf the first time, though. CAMILA PRINCESS was also rolling late in her sprint debut in a MSW race Sept. 20 the first foal out of a $153K stakes-winning mare could take a big step forward with the experience behind her.

SIXTH RACE

GASPARILLA TROVE drifted in sharply at the start

but recovered quickly and after dueling early held a clear lead in the stretch when he drifted in again and lost his rider. He was the runner-up in all of his other races on dirt, won’t mind the slightly shorter distance, and could be tough to handle if he can keep a straight path. NO DINERO is dropping to a new low and he just missed finishing second behind a runaway winner in a $20K maiden claimer in his latest. TWICE THE POWER debuts for a trainer who is two for two with first-time starters and both horses won maiden claiming races at this track last year. Interesting.

SEVENTH RACE

LITTLE BABY BELLA is coming off two solid efforts over this surface including a runner-up finish in her first try with winners at this level. Being a lightly-raced 3-year-she may not have reached her peak and her trainer is also pretty hot right now. PROMISCUOUS FORCE is clearly the one to beat. She owns the best Beyer’s in the field and she is coming off a fourth-place finish in an open $12.5 claimer won by a horse with eight wins and $175K in earnings. However, she has been stuck with a single win for quite some time now. TACO WAYNE’S SHOT will be rolling late and should be part of any exotics ticket.

EIGHTH RACE

TAIPAN’S ADVANTAGE is the best horse in the race and if he comes back as good as he left he’s the winner. Considering his spotty set of works that is a big if. However, the past five years Bennett has a 16 percent strike rate with horses coming back in 180 days or more so we’ll assume he’s ready to roll. DREAMING OF JOEY is also coming off a layoff and he may have tipped his hand when he worked a sharp 5 furlongs at Palm Meadows Oct. 22. The 14-time winner won his debut and he romped in the slop coming off a layoff last year so he can fire fresh. THE SON WIND has been trending in the wrong direction but he could things around with the drop to a new low for a hot trainer.

NINTH RACE

SWAGGER JAGGER hasn’t won in a while but his last two wins came on this course and he figures to move forward in his second start back while dropping to a new low. He was also running over a turf course that wasn’t favoring speed when he finished third after setting the pace in his latest in Indiana. MINISTER’S STRIKE exits a key race at Saratoga and he will be happy to get away from Thirsty Actor who earned a 78 Beyer when he won his fourth straight in a $ 50K claimer for 3-yearolds at Churchill Downs Oct. 1. ENTANGLED will appreciate the easier company after chasing an honest pace before fading in his first try on grass in the $ 40K Jack Flats.

TENTH RACE

R SWEET EXCHANGE had a rough trip when she went unplaced in a $16K optional- claimer two back. Tossing the race we are looking at two sharp wins in $10K claiming races going this distance. The Beyer Figures she earned in her two wins stand out and she could take them all the way if he breaks on top with Jaramillo riding again. MOJO’S QUEEN looked good winning a $ 40K n2L at Saratoga two back, can stalk, and could pick up the pieces if they get carried away up front. GRACE APPEAL faces older runners for the first time, but she is perfect at the distance, and could get a nice trip sitting just off what could be a contested pace. Just one published work since she won a $75K optional race May 11 is a bit of a concern, though.