This Breeders’ Cup all about Arrogate’s legacy

DEL MAR, Calif. – I was talking last weekend to a friend of long standing, an outstanding handicapper and avid racing historian, about the Breeders’ Cup. Almost immediately, the conversation turned to Arrogate, of whom we were of similar minds.

We agreed that Arrogate’s four-race run of the Travers, Breeders’ Cup Classic, Pegasus World Cup, and Dubai World Cup just blew us away. He raved about how Arrogate shattered the track record in the Travers, running the fastest 1 1/4 miles ever at Saratoga, which takes in more than 150 years of history and a lot of fast horses. I raved at how Arrogate beat a horse as good as California Chrome in the Classic despite California Chrome having everything his own way, and at the positional speed Arrogate showed in the Pegasus to avoid being badly shuffled back in the short run to Gulfstream’s first turn. And we both gushed at the way Arrogate overcame a godawful trip in his overwhelming Dubai Cup score.

I mentioned I invoked Secretariat as a frame of reference in a column on Arrogate’s Dubai performance, and I am a huge Secretariat fan. My friend said Arrogate is better than Seattle Slew, which was stunning to hear because my friend is the biggest Seattle Slew freak on the planet.

For all that’s going on in this first Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar – and there is a lot – this Breeders’ Cup is for me, and I suspect many others, mostly about Arrogate. If you don’t agree, then I guess you didn’t hear the collective gasp that went up from the crowd at Monday’s Breeders’ Cup post position draw when Arrogate drew the rail. Anyway, this is just a touch ironic because Arrogate likely won’t even be the favorite in his defense of the Classic. Gun Runner is expected to be the Classic favorite.

Yet those who were a bit more reserved than the rest of us in their assessment of Arrogate when he was on his big roll, and perhaps even those who soured on him after his two surprising losses over the summer on the Del Mar main track he races on Saturday, would likely concede that if Arrogate reproduces one of his big four victories, he will win this Classic decisively.

This is the real hook to this Breeders’ Cup. We are grateful for the gatefuls of terrific horses in many important races, but I believe this Breeders’ Cup is mainly about Arrogate, and whether he will leave us with one more – one last – display of true greatness.

With due respect to the amazing Lady Eli in the Filly and Mare Turf, the sensational Lady Aurelia in the Turf Sprint, and the brilliant Unique Bella, who will be attempting to become the first 3-year-old ever to win the Filly and Mare Sprint, Bolt d’Oro in the Juvenile is the horse I am next most excited to see Saturday.

Bolt d’Oro, by Medaglia d’Oro and from an A.P. Indy mare, always figured to realize his full potential once he got the opportunity to stretch out in distance. So it is an indication of how good he really might be that he won his first two starts sprinting, including the Del Mar Futurity. But Bolt d’Oro exceeded all expectations when he did go two turns for the first time in the FrontRunner Stakes. He crushed his field by almost eight lengths in a raw final time for the 1 1/16 miles that was .80 of a second faster than the highly talented 3-yearold filly Paradise Woods went in winning the Zenyatta, and a gaping 2.78 seconds faster than Moonshine Memories, the favorite in the Juvenile Fillies, went in winning the Chandelier, both on the same card.

Those who made the Beyer Speed Figures did not treat Bolt d’Oro’s FrontRunner at face value. If they had, Bolt d’Oro would have received a FrontRunner Beyer 13 points higher than the 100 he was given. But that would have meant some horses in the badly beaten FrontRunner field would have earned wildly improved Beyers, and the Beyer folks were not comfortable with that prospect. As a longtime speed-figure maker myself, I certainly understand this, and consider it to be one of the benefits of having humans who use seasoned judgment making figures instead of computers, which could never make such distinctions.

That said, Bolt d’Oro’s FrontRunner was wickedly fast, no matter how you slice it, and I can’t wait to see how he backs it up.

BARBARA D. LIVINGSTON Arrogate’s best wins the BC Classic. But will he bring his best?