ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, GALILEO’S SONG

FIRST RACE

THE GREAT SAMURAI posted lone career win in a race originally scheduled for turf, and he has settled for second-best 7 other times from 18 starts, but he has run well in his dirt starts, including early-moving effort at this level two starts back; drops back down after failing to sprint effectively off the claim. CHAPIN a tough read after posting his first career win in the slop at Parx most recently, but his overall form suggests he’s a player in here, and he did handle the main track last time en route to that easy score. FACADE dropping out of that same $25k sprint from which THE GREAT SAMURAI emerges and looking to factor in a race on this circuit for the first time as he continues to descend the ladder; lone career win came at a one-turn mile.

SECOND RACE

SLAM CHOWDER won two of three at Finger Lakes recently after being claimed, and she had excuses for the loss after breaking slowly and then having a bit of a trip vs. better horses; drops after dueling with a 2/5 favorite for a long way and then giving in late in late in that last one. MARNESIA BIG GIRL switched back to dirt around this time last year and blew a field of restricted claimers out of the water with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure, and she was a prompt winner when finally dropped back down in class two starts back, also against restricted company; drops and cuts back after chasing a fast pace in a tougher spot last time. LIL RENEGADE has posted a pair of recent wins at this level, both at big prices; consistent mare is a contender here and becomes more dangerous with any pace that develops in front of her.

THIRD RACE

GALILEO’S SONG was a progressive 3yo on grass for a top trainer, ultimately acquitting herself well in a pair of graded stakes tries at the end of last year; mile-and-a-half a bit of a question, but she made a nice return this year over a distance short of her best, and she was badly compromised by a slow pace last time. PLAYFUL SOUND shaped nicely early on for her world-class trainer, winning four of her first five, including her seasonal debut with a new top Timeform rating; ships over and adds lasix after disappointing as the favorite in her last three starts. ARLES settled for 2nd or 3rd in six of her nine starts in Germany, and she came away second-best in each of her first three starts over here, as well, though she was facing better each time; big threat off the layoff.

FOURTH RACE

COURAGEOUS QUEEN a firster by a sire off to a good start at stud, and she is out of a dam who is a winning sister to the very good sprinter Coup de Grace (Amsterdam and Bay Shore winner), as well as the Grade 1 winning 2yo Dancing Rags; likely to be well-prepped for Pletcher. OVERHEATED also well-bred being by a top stallion and out of a dam who won multiple graded stakes around here a few years ago; Brown hasn’t quite developed Pletcher’s reputation with 2yo first-time starters, but he tends to have them set to go. LEZENDARY owns the experience in the form of a solid run for 3rd at Saratoga, where she came three-wide to duel for it, before weakening a bit in the late stages; has been listed as a vet scratch in the interim. BARRIER ISLAND gets credit for coming close on debut for a very patient trainer, but that was a race that went to closers, and she was out-kicked from behind by a longshot at the end.

FIFTH RACE

ROCKIN JO switched to turf two starts back and laid down a solid pace in front of a very impressive closing winner; didn’t run as well after failing to make the lead when cut back last time, but that was another strong performance from the winner

of that race, and his speed projects to play well in this field. CAUSFORCELEBRATION closed gamely without threat in his turf debut over six furlongs, before failing to make an impact behind that impressive winner most recently, while getting by a tired ROCKIN JO in the late stages; stretches out. PAYNTER’S PRIZE couldn’t get by pacesetting POWERSTROKE after chasing that rival last month, but he showed some nice improvement there while making his turf debut, and he may be able to find enough this time to reverse that decision.

SIXTH RACE

JUPITER RISING is bred for turf and she improved immediately upon making the switch this summer for her prior trainer; taking a big class drop for this after facing much tougher in her first three starts vs. other winners, but it’s not a negative one, considering that she broke her maiden under a $40k tag. THERE GOES BEN settled for 2nd-best in five of his six starts against maiden claimers on turf last year, but he broke through in his first start off the layoff, and he has since faced tougher two-life claimers in three starts; closer needs some pace to develop and then a clean run into it. CROCE D’ORO took a step forward while using his speed at this level last time to earn a competitive figure in a race that came back fast; think he’s facing tougher for the level this time, but he can contend with a repeat of that last one, and he remains open to some further improvement.

SEVENTH RACE

GAME OVER was impressive in pair of opening wins vs. lesser competition, but he handled the step up in class nicely this summer while running three solid races vs. top 3yos; tough post, but this turn back may really work for him. PATTERNRECOGNITION continues to go well while bumping into top 3yos himself, having now lost four straight races to the likes of Copper Town, Takaful, Coal Front and Mr. Crow; will find the right spot one of these days, and this may be it. HAMMERIN AAMER has improved noticeably for Rudy this year and last was his best yet despite settling for 2nd-best behind the suddenly in-form Harlan Punch; tough spot here in the face of the top two.

EIGHTH RACE

Perhaps it was just the wet track (which wouldn’t be a bad thing in this circumstance), or maybe the addition of blinkers, but OLD DUBAI really took a step forward in strong front-running win at Saratoga two starts back, and he landed in a bit of a loaded 1x last time; dam was a top dirt sprinter, but her best foal to date is a turf horse. SETHARY tipped his hand a bit when nearly surviving a fast pace in his turf debut back in July, and he has taken a step forward from there to post back-toback strong wins over this distance across town; was off slowly in that last one, but he wasn’t badly compromised due to a slow pace which allowed him to recover without having to work too hard. RUNAWAY POSSE may be tailing off a bit toward the end of the year, but his good race gives him a big chance here, and there is a chance that he catches enough pace to set him up.

NINTH RACE

Chelsey Flower has a bit of different look following a redraw after last Sunday’s cancellation, most notably the addition of BRATTATA for Chad, as she wasn’t part of the initial field. BRATTATA made a promising debut sprinting while coming wide for 2nd behind a sharp winner, and she was very unlucky last time when blocked behind a slow pace, and then closing quickly too late; tough post for first route try. GOLDEN ORB looked good winning her career debut around two-turns, something few of her rivals have accomplished to this point; steps back a bit after sitting a perfect trip and proving to be no match for better horses in the Grade 1 Natalma. NIGHT TIME LADY outfinished BRATTATA last time, and while she had the clean run that her stablemate did not in that race, she gets some extra credit of her own for rallying into that slow pace to get up.

TENTH RACE

CHIC N WILBUR has a pedigree more slanted toward turf, but he showed some potential in debut run where he was off slowly from the gate before making a run and then exchanging a couple of bumps in the stretch behind a trip of MSW class-droppers who finished 1-2-3 in that race; right back at the same level for an excellent trainer. CHAMPAGNE EVENT a first-time starter by a young stallion who is still looking for his first winner, but he has been training steadily into this for a trainer who is highly-underrated with 2yo firsters in dirt sprints (past five years: 23%, $5.97 ROI). LUTHERAN RAGS went evenly in a pair of turf sprints to start his career, then switched to the main track and was no-factor in MSW field that has the potential to turn out okay; drops.