ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, RIVIERE DU LOUP

FIRST RACE

ON CRUISE CONTROL was cruising when Tyler Gaffalione rode him to an easy win in an $8K n2L in his latest and seems capable of handling the small jump in class. The lightly-raced 3-year-old is trending in the right direction and considering he won with something left he probably hasn’t reached his peak. WHOOP TI DO just missed in a similar race Oct. 11 and is eligible to more forward in his second start back. He should also get a nice trip from a forward position. With 71 starts and just two wins it is hard to love BURNING WILD on top. However, he will be rolling late and he hasn’t finished worse than third in any of his starts here, so he should be party of any exotics ticket.

SECOND RACE

GRIS broke a step slow and after moving into contention understandably tired when he debuted in a $20K maiden claimer Oct. 13. He might be better than it looks on paper and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him move forward for a trainer who has solid stats with second-time starters. ED’S DOG just missed when he dropped to this level Oct. 22 and the 34 Beyer Speed Figure he received is the best in the field. A B G GUERRERO finished in the top three in four of his last five races at this level and should be included in the exotics. ROCK AND RATTLE didn’t have any noticeable excuse when he was sent off as the chalk in his debut, but it was just his debut, and there was a reason somebody liked him.

THIRD RACE

DISCO MAN has improved since he came back from a short break and he looked good winning a $12.5K maiden claimer in his last start. He has challenges breaking from the outside post, but he has decent tactical speed so Jaramillo should be able to work out a trip. TIDE OF THE DESERT is also heading in the right direction and could be sitting on a big effort in the third start of his current form cycle after finishing third at this level Oct. 8. SMART RETURN will appreciate the move back to turf after going unplaced in a race washed off he lawn Oct. 15. CAPE FORCE won the last time he ran in Miami and after a couple of dull efforts in Maryland he could make some noise in his first start for a trainer who is having a strong meet.

FOURTH RACE

FOREST GATOR won back-to-back races on the main track at Gulfstream before fading on the turf here. He should appreciate being back on dirt, and being the main speed he could be tough to reel in if he breaks on top. HORSE SPOTTER CARL got bounced around pretty hard at the start which caused his rider to lose an iron in his latest. Toss the race and he was the runner-up in his two previous starts while earning Beyer Speed Figures that would put him right in the thick of it here. INDIO NATIVO is a two-time sprint winner and could spice up the exotics following another poor effort going a middle distance.

FIFTH RACE

ITS ABOUT ME rallied going 5 furlongs in her debut and being the first foal out of a mare who won going long on turf she could thrive going around two turns while adding blinkers. TELLING ME SOFTLY was the runner-up when she dropped to this level two back and may not have cared for the sloppy conditions when she finished well back in her latest. Panici keeps the faith so it might be worth giving her another chance if the race stays on turf. WINNIE was in tight early, went wide around the first turn, and then finished well from along the rail in a race that produced three nextout winners. SONG OF MELODY, third as the chalk

in Winnie’s race two back, could be dangerous if she can clear early.

SIXTH RACE

U S DIVA closed well to finish third at this level in her first start here and with plenty of speed signed on she could get up in time in her second start following a layoff. BOURBON HONEY got buried in a duel in her latest, but she gets off the rail and could be dangerous if Batista can get her to sit off the other speed. It is also worth noting Batista bails on KATHERINE’S DRAMA to stick with her. KATHERINE’S DRAMA owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and could take them a long way if she can get the jump on the other speed. FEDERICA should be rolling late and her trainer is 2 for 6 and has a $3.03 ROI with horses coming back between 61-180 days.

SEVENTH RACE

LEMONIST has been off since he finished a close fifth in the $100K Kittens Joy, which had a strong field that included subsequent Grade 3 winner Sonic Boom who also finished fourth in the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington. Lemonist romped the only time he ran over this surface and we all know Pletcher can have them ready to roll coming off this kind of break. KROY is the now horse and he’s had more than one sharp work since he won his third straight race in the $100K Bears Den where the took them all the way. He is versatile, though, so Jaramillo has more than one option. FAST AND ACCURATE has been freshened after a tough schedule which included a try in the Kentucky Derby. He was good enough to win the Grade 3 Spiral on Polytrack at Turfway and he also won a minor stakes on turf across town in February. It appears Maker has him him primed for a big effort coming off the bench.

EIGHTH RACE

STARSHIP APOLLO is coming off a win at this level and makes his first start since being haltered by a trainer who has solid stats with newly claimed horses. He’s also perfect at the distance and he hasn’t lost in two starts at this venue. MATTHEWS MYSTERY is stepping up to face open company but he has improved lately and might be good enough. He took them all the way in his latest but he seems versatile and could get a nice trip from a forward position if the other speed shows up. MORE APPLAUSE was eased early when he was facing much tougher in his latest but he came back with a decent work and is reunited with Batista who was aboard when he won at this level three back. he could win this if he brings his best stuff. That does seem like a big if, though.

NINTH RACE

RIVIERE DU LOUP was on a roll prior to getting off to a poor start in his latest. Toss the race and you are looking at nothing but solid performance this year. He fits nicely with this group and it is hard not to notice the strong numbers Servis has with horses coming back in this time period. ABTAAL won his latest at this level running over a sloppy track and the 6-time winner on turf shouldn’t have an issue with the surface switch. RECALIBRATING is eligible to move forward after finishing second at this level coming off a short break. CONSCIOUS DECISION just missed the last time he ran on grass and might be a decent price after not being much of a threat in back-to-back races that were washed off the lawn.

TENTH RACE

ELLERY LANE beat a modest group when she won a first-level allowance race in her second start in North America and being lightly raced her best races could be in front of her. She also has the right running style for the likely shape of the race. OVERNEGOTIATE has been rock solid on turf and the NY-bred filly drew used her good tactical speed to beat open company in her latest at Belmont. She drew the rail and could get nice trip stalking speed suspect speed. GRAN CHERRY just missed in the Miss Gracie but probably would have won the race if Jaramillo had been able to get her off the rail earlier. She won’t mind the shape of the race and could get up in time with the right kind of trip.