ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, AVERY ISLAND

FIRST RACE

Like that SILBERADO has some speed, even if it hasn’t played all that well vs. better horses so far; big class drop for this, especially as compared to the field he faced in lone dirt start, where he raced forward early in a race featured a fast pace and a big collapse. ARCHIVAL has already finished first at this level, only to be justifiably disqualified after some careless handling led to his causing a spill in deep stretch; came back with another solid effort at the level despite only being second-best that day. SHOOT THE GAP was the horse ARCHIVAL interfered with in the stretch of that 9/22 race for the level, though he was a beaten horse at the time of the incident; like his speed from the rail.

SECOND RACE

PIQUET has had her chances already, but am willing to give her one more after enduring a hard-luck run last time when failing to work his way clear in the stretch; runner-up effort to the promising La Moenda two back was fine, and she probably ran the best race despite settling for 3rd at the end at Saratoga off the short freshening. TIZ R BELLA has finished behind the top one in each of her first two starts but she still possesses the upside that the top one does not, and she has run well enough both times; outside post shouldn’t hurt her too much in this field. Distance a concern for SPA TREATMENT, but she has run well in all three turf starts so far without winning; like PIQUET she had a tough time finding room to run in that last one, though she eventually did get a run to finish 4th.

THIRD RACE

AVERY ISLAND may have just really enjoyed that wet track en route to dominant maiden win, but think it’s just as likely that he appreciated the added ground of that race, which he is bred for in spades; got bet before disappointing in his debut, but he looked nothing like a sprinter while working hard from the jump in that spot. AVEENU MALCAINU has been battle tested in a way that AVERY ISLAND has not, and that is no small thing in a race like this; found the competition too tough in the Champagne last time, but he was gamely in front for seven of the eight furlongs of that race, and was under pressure for most of them. SUPER SERMON broke his maiden in a hard-fought oneturn mile in his second career start; not sure how much I like that race overall, though the runner-up did return to win his next start.

FOURTH RACE

STONEFACTOR got bet for debut that was rained off to a sloppy main track, and she had no trouble clearing off on the early lead before proving to be no match when challenged; bred to improve quickly on turf, and her speed plays. Not concerned with that second start for STRAW HAT where she was blown-out (along with everyone else) over a sloppy track, but thought her career debut over turf was promising while racing on from the back behind a sharp winner; half to the good turf sprinter Dreamboat Annie is eligible to improve back on grass. KREESIE, like the top two, has a race in the slop to dismiss and her turf debut wasn’t bad at all at a big price.

FIFTH RACE

TIZ SUPER took the drop and held on with new blinkers most recently, and she once again looks like the main speed as she is logically spotted for her first start out of the maiden ranks; seven furlongs could be the stumbling block. PALUXY PRINCESS pulled off a big upset when cut back to sprint for the first time by new trainer in her NY debut, and she backed that race up pretty well in a tougher field next time, though she did spend much of that race along a strong rail; big drop in class. FAIR REGIS back in with two-life claimers off the claim for a sharp trainer, and she has a couple of races that make her competitive, as does B THREE, though the recent dirt form showing on her card leaves something to be desired.

SIXTH RACE

ANCHOR facing a couple of experienced rivals who have run fast already, but he has a nice pedigree