ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, SOMBRERO DE COPA

FIRST RACE

ESCONDERA flattened out to third after hitting the front in the stretch when going from a sprint to a route in his latest. His high-percentage trainer rocks with turnbacks, and this one seems wellsuited to seven furlongs. YORK RANGER has had a break since ending up fourth in a key $10K race Sept. 13. Over the past five years, his trainer is 2 for 4 first-time off the claim, which were all Fort Erie runners. GET’ERDONEBUD is stretching out off a non-threatening sixth in rapidly-run starter allowance dash.

SECOND RACE

BEER PRESSURE placed in all three of his outings after flashing early foot. This seven-furlong OS maiden special appears to have come up light, and the son of leading Ontario 2yo sire Silent Name seems poised to break through. BERKELEY BOY checked on fourth when adding blinkers in his improved second start three weeks ago. TWO TIMING is donning the hood following two lackluster performances in shorter sprints.

THIRD RACE

MAGICAL HOLIDAY hit the board in all three of her excursions, most recently traveling seven-eighths in her grass debut. The pricey yearling purchase worked quickly the other day, and should be closing for a high placing in this six-furlong maiden special. SPRING IN THE WIND was along for fourth against the boys after saving ground last time in a six-furlong maiden special. WHIP ME INTO SHAPE is picking up Boulanger off a $40K claim by a trainer who excels with new shooters.

FOURTH RACE

SOMBRERO DE COPA dueled up front along the inside before weakening over a track that aided outside/closers when returning from a layoff Oct. 8. The durable veteran has always done his best running from off the pace, and should take some beating if he employs that style in this rock bottom nickel claimer. FINAL OFFER is dropping off a fade job in a $12.5K starter allowance to where he should control the front-end proceedings. REALLYLIKETHISONE and turf expert HAMPSTEAD HEATH are prospects for the lower rungs of the exotics.

FIFTH RACE

BORN IN A BREEZE came up empty last time in the tough Bunty Lawless Stakes. The classy 5yo should get back on track against these $32K claimers, regardless of the surface. SUMERIAN BELL came from Assiniboia to finish fourth in a $20K starter allowance here Oct. 14. He’s eligible to improve with a race over the track. STAR CONTENDER beat the latter that day when a lapped-on second to Roxy’s Vision, who subsequently ran third in the Overskate Stakes (84 Beyer). Use ENTWISTLE underneath in vertical bets.

SIXTH RACE

MISS BETTY TO U battled for the lead along the rail before tiring when beaten in double digits for the third straight time a month ago. She’s plunging to $12.5K while changing bug riders, and is eligible to wake up going from turf to the Tapeta. LAILAS PRINCESS shook loose on the lead before weakening to second over an anti-speed track last time

in a similar spot. RARE GEM, another longtime maiden, is competing on short rest off a betterthan-looked fifth-place finish.

SEVENTH RACE

CONQUEST TSUNAMI fought for the lead on soft turf last time before fading to fifth in the G2 Nearctic. He was previously a front-running second in a higher optional claimer won by the hard-knocking San Nicola Thunder, who came back to double up before finishing second in the Bunty Lawless Stakes. WESTERN ELEGANCE is one of the few Chicago shippers to fare well here this year, which was a third behind Pink Lloyd in the G3 Vigil on the Tapeta. He’s no slouch on the lawn. OCCASIONAL VIEW figures to rally for another share, and SWEET LITTLE MAN could round out the super.

EIGHTH RACE

KITTEN’S BOY won an off-the-turf maiden special route at first asking with a 74 Beyer Oct. 14. The nicely-bred son of Kitten’s Joy might possess the most upside in this rich stakes, and could strike again under money rider Da Silva. AHEADBYACENTURY was competitive in restricted sprint stakes before graduating around two turns most recently in an open maiden special. Hernandez inherits the mount from Contreras, who’s sticking with COOLER MIKE. The latter had a wide trip after breaking from post 11 en route to running fourth in the restricted Cup and Saucer Stakes on the grass Oct. 8. The son of Giant Gizmo should love a route of ground on the main track. Use BOBBY’S ESCAPE in the super.

NINTH RACE

GIZMO JONES was in solid form before going to the bench in September, and has worked regularly for his return to action in this $10K conditioned event. GUATEMALA CITY awaited room on the turn before closing belatedly in a recent sprint at this level. SIGNATURE HEART went quite wide on both turns en route to beating easier $10K NW2 stock a month ago.

TENTH RACE

MIDNIGHT BREW rallied between rivals to prevail in each of her last two outings, including a recent five-furlong starter allowance. She’s better suited to the seven-furlong distance of this N1X, and her trainer has done well second-time off the claim. SET TO DANCE has attracted leading rider Da Silva for her local debut, and has been working bullets on the Tapeta. MATCHING VOWS got a patient ride from Da Silva while closing strongly to beat NW2 OS allowance/$40K claimers in her latest. RED EXPLOSION is another possibility.

ELEVENTH RACE

MASTER MACDUFF ran four-wide on the first turn before mounting six-wide bid to finish about three lengths back last time when going long. He was previously in good sprint form, and should be dangerous while shortening up to six and a half in this $10K NW2 tilt. INCREDIBLE DEE is dropping from $20K NW2 company to where he could be a major player. BE THE CHANGE is also getting some noteworthy class relief. Toss HANGTIME in the super.

SCRATCH BOARD

Here are the horses entered today who have been scratched in the last 45 days and have not raced since the scratch. Definitions: Off the turf: Turf race switched to main track. Trainer: Any scratch made by a trainer, including ones for weather, medical issues, a decision not to run in a stakes race, a horse entered back the next racing day, nd or a conditional entry (i.e., main track only for a turf race). Vet: Injury or illness. Steward: Administrative issues like medication and eligibility.