ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, RETRO

FIRST RACE

Although CARPATHIA finished next-to-last in her debut, the 2yo filly gets the call to win this sprint for Calbred maidens. Her debut was merely a prep; the favorite was a stablemate (runner-up Carrie’s Success). Also, CARPATHIA had significant trouble. But her recent works suggest she moved forward since; she benefits by the additional distance of this six-furlong race. The Nick Alexander homebred hails from a productive female family. Her dam Melinda Rose has produced five multiple winners of more than $100k. Bottom line: the second-start maiden is likely to move up with a race under her belt. COPPER COWGIRL is the one to catch. She pressed a fast pace last out in a similar state-bred maiden sprint, and finished an okay third.The winner Smiling Tigress was scheduled to start as a contender in race 4, a stakes race. Z Z TIGER is a Smiling Tiger first-time starter produced by a dam whose 10 runners all are winners. SONGOFTHEDESERT flashed speed and tired in her debut. She can improve.

SECOND RACE

Second start after a creditable third-place debut, DURANGA is likely to move up. Ignored in the betting at 16-1 first out, she was outrun early, raced evenly, and finished in front of six other rivals. It was a respectable effort. Now that the prep is out of the way, she should improve. However, she can only win if the pacesetter falters. That is KENTAN ROAD, who set fast fractions and tired her first two starts. She shortens to six furlongs, and will lead as far as she can. LOVELY RAQUEL looms the upset candidate. Unraced since she December, she returns in a dirt sprint, which is noteworthy. Prior to her layoff, the best race of her four-start career was her only dirt sprint. Upset candidate.

THIRD RACE

INDAVIDUALIST moves up in class following his second straight win; he looks like the speed of the field. Claimed for $16k, wheeled back for $22.5k, he is likely to make the lead. Gate to wire. KARMA KING has enough gas to keep the favorite in his sights. ‘KING probably will be positioned second behind the speed, and would get first run if the top choice falters. ‘KING is a Del Mar horse for course. He has three wins from seven starts on this track; he missed by only a neck here in summer while running for a $40k tag. He drops two levels for his first start in two months. MATRICULATE returns from a lengthy layoff for trainer Bill Spawr, who scored twice this winter with comebackers off more than six months (Desert Madam, Candy Promises). The only time MATRICULATE ran for a tag, he won a N2L claiming race.

FOURTH RACE

RETRO was pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, but was stuck on the also-eligible list. Assuming she did not run Friday in the BC, she stands out in this first-level allowance. She won her debut racing a mile on this course, then finished a creditable third in her second start while facing stakes runners. With a class drop to the first condition, she is a likely winner rallying from the back of the pack. MEDAGLIA GOLD finished fifth last out a stakes, her effort might have been better than it looks. She pressed a fast pace, took the lead at the quarter pole, then got swallowed and finished fifth behind 1-2-3-4 finishers that rallied from 10-8-7-9 running positions.Good effort by the front-running filly, who won a maiden race here in summer setting a slow pace. Key rider switch to Kent Desormeaux. Florida shipper TESORA won her career debut, a sprint, in decisive fashion. The filly she beat returned to win a maiden race next out by five lengths. TESORA should handle a mile. Sired by Scat Daddy, her dam was a maiden sibling to G1 Hollywood Starlet winner Romance is Diane and G2 Del Mar Derby winner Romanceishope.

FIFTH RACE

BIG LEAGUE became eligible for this starter allowance by running in a $50k claiming race three starts back. He was in too tough in a pair of recent

N1X sprints, now drops to the starter allowance level, and enters as the “best horse.” This is no easy race however, due to his inside post (post 2 of 8) and lively pace scenario to his outside. That includes UPPERCLASSMAN, third at this level last out at Santa Anita. He ran the best race of his career on this racetrack in summer, and will press the pace while racing outside and in the clear. If the pace falls apart, then maiden-claiming debut winner SHORT OF EZ could be along in time. He broke slowly in his debut, but rallied to win by more than four. It was a sharp win over a soft group. These are tougher, but ‘EZ will finish. STREET TO INDY is a maiden, but his closing style suits the pace scenario.

SIXTH RACE

MORNING DANCE improved in her second start when she stretched out and switched to turf. She finished fifth by less than three lengths. With one more small step forward her second try long on turf, she can upset career maiden SCANDAL.The latter is a 14-start maiden, although she was disqualified from a win once. Runner-up by a length last out, her eighth runner-up finish, she will roll late. Potential pacesetter MALIBU MODEL is another that improved last out when sent long on grass. She ran in the same race as the top choice, and finished sixth by three lengths. Blinkers are on, she gets in light with a seven-pound apprentice rider and might be the one they have to catch.

SEVENTH RACE

MAKE IT A TRIPLE is likely to start at a short price in this $16k claiming N2L sprint. He also is likely to win. Runner-up last time out in a $25k claiming N2L, he drops to the bottom, has the top figures and an outside post where he can press the pace or go right on with it. Tough to grind out a profit backing low-odds droppers, but ‘TRIPLE does look tough to beat. ADVENTUROUS had an adventurous trip in his first against winners. He stumbled at the break, was away last, yet somehow rallied to finish second behind Indavidualist, who returned to win again and is the favorite in race 3. It was a good effort by ADVENTUROUS, whose normal style is to press the pace. ROOSEVELT won a maiden-32 route on this track in summer, he returns from a two-month break and is realistically placed at the lowest class level for winners.

EIGHTH RACE

JEREMY’S LEGACY drops from stakes to N2X, and returns to her favorite turf course. Both career wins were at Del Mar. Her N1X win three back during the summer meet was the best of her career, she may have had excuses in her next two starts. She might have moved too soon Sept. 4; last out she was simply outclassed in the stakes. Class drop, speed to run at, she can sit wait and rally for the win. CORDIALITY finished second to the top choice when they met here in August, then returned with two more sharp efforts. She wired a N1X, and finished second in a N2X. The frontrunner/presser could get a good trip positioned second behind BERT’S MELODY. MOONLESS SKY drops from Cal-bred stakes; she missed by a length her most recent start at this level.

NINTH RACE

The outside post poses a challenge for SUPER DUPER COOPER, but a class drop to maiden-20 negates the draw. His career-best effort was on this track in July. If he can somehow avoid losing too much ground on the first turn of this mile race, ‘COOPER can win. TOPGALLANT was rather flat last out at Santa Anita, but his summer form at Del Mar puts him in the hunt. KENZOU’S EMPIRE returns from a layoff nd with races in spring that make him a contender. SECOND GEAR finished second in his last four starts. He will influence the pace scenario, though he picks up seven pounds from his last start.

TRAINER STANDINGS

NOV 1 THROUGH NOV 2

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.