ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, SAN JUAN DIEGO

FIRST RACE

IN IT FOR THE GOLD was pretty good on dirt as a 2yo without winning, but she may have run her best race when switched to turf last time, where she went early to duel with favored Electric and was only outfinished by closers late; Rudy off to his typical good start at Aqueduct. SAMARA and BAIL were both debuting in that same race, and both raced on gamely through the stretch, though neither finished well enough to make it close with winner China Rider, who was breaking her maiden in career start #11th. SAMARA will likely be the better price of the two, though BAIL was game for 2nd after pushing her way clear in the stretch.

SECOND RACE

PICO CHICK dropping off a hard-fought win with a new top figure last time; tactical filly was flattered when the two runners who finished just behind her returned to run 1-2 here on Thursday while backing up that 79 Beyer. BIG MARA keeps coming right back at a similar level, and is now looking for four in a row since being dropped in class at Saratoga; defeated only three others as a heavy favorite in the slop in that last one, but she had to fight off early pressure in that race before driving clear. DA WILDCAT GIRL can win this if she can find a way to get back to her best form, which has been eluding her lately; new trainer has good numbers off of trainer changes (past five years, first after trainer change, dirt sprints; 5 for 19, 26%, $7.15 ROI). FAMILYOFROSES another with the back races to contend here, and she is an effective sprinter when she’s at her best; drops for second start back after getting outrun by a better field last time.

THIRD RACE

SAN JUAN DIEGO made open company debut at Keeneland where he flashed good early speed before appearing to bobble at the top of the stretch, and he let it go from there; appears to be a good fit stepping in with fellow NY-breds, and his speed from the outside projects to land him in a nice spot early. DIG THAT MINE raced very greenly in his career debut at Parx, but he was better for that experience when finishing a solid 2nd at a big price last time; threat once again as he breaks from the rail, but he was way more interesting last time. WORK OF ART not my kind of horse switching surfaces after turf debut, but he did run well in that first start to close ground in a race that was dominated on the lead; dam did post a blowout win while switching from synth to dirt in her second career start, and she came right back to just miss in the Grade 3 Miss Preakness with an 84 Beyer.

FOURTH RACE

FILFILA had the right kind of trip in a closers race in her debut, but she was no match for stablemate Rushing Fall while racing on late for a piece; can easily improve enough to get it done here, and still prefer that race to the one that KASBACH and CLOSING STATEMENT exit. KASBACH was always on the outside while CLOSING STATEMENT worked a perfect run through on the rail, and they both chased a front-running winner in vain through the stretch last month at Belmont. They are both contenders, as is BURAK, who was threewide in a paceless race first time out.

FIFTH RACE

ROCK DOC improved to defeat maidens in his NY debut off a layoff, and he was unlucky not to go back-to-back when getting the best of a duel only to be closed down late last month; looks tough here if keeping on the same path. MY BOY TATE a dangerous rival who is better than his 1 for 4 record may make him look; was unlucky not to win at least one of his first three starts going longer, and he was dominant over a weak field when turned back for the first time at Saratoga. FORMAL START returns in a tough spot for the level, but he is underrated for a low-profile trainer and will be a big price once again.

SIXTH RACE

KURILOV a tough read making US debut after

winning 4 of 6 on dirt in his native Chile, including a dominant Group 1 win from off the pace when last seen back in May, but this is the right kind of field for a new face with some ability, which he appears to have; lasix on as he runs out of Chad’s barn after apparently being purchased by WinStar. Sloppy track complicates clear-cut win by

DO YOU KNOW SOMETHING last month, but he was impressive there, and his overall 2017 record leading into that race was misleading; threat right back in a race lacking for much other speed. VULCAN’S

FORGE needs some pace to develop in order to have his best chance, something he didn’t get last time while gamely grinding out 3rd; better on dirt.

SEVENTH RACE

FIVE EACH WAY was behind a few of these when they ran this condition at Belmont in September, but she got pretty far back early in that race before racing on gamely late without threat; like this spot for her if she can get more forward this time, and like the rider change. PINCHBECK has been on overall disappointment since starting out with some potential, and she had no excuse in that September race before bumping into the talented La Moneda last time, but do like that she posted her lone career win in her only start over this turf course, and she is perfectly drawn with some tactical speed. WAY SMART and PHOTOGRAPHER both lightly-raced options with the right amount of upside in this kind of field. WAY SMART improved slightly off her debut to post an easy enough win over a weaker field last time, while PHOTOGRAPHER, who improved on the stretch out upstate, raced wide all the way when no factor in that 9/24 race.

EIGHTH RACE

FROSTY MARGARITA hasn’t won a dirt race since January of 2016 (13 starts back for her), and clearly, her two dirt starts to kick off this current form cycle leave something to be desired, but have always preferred her sprinting on dirt and she does have the back races to contend here at a price as she turns back and switches from turf to dirt for Rudy. RIOT WORTHY finished gamely to be 2nd for the 11th time in her 23-race career behind an odds-on Your Love off the short layoff last month; much prefers sprinting on dirt, and she owns a nice record over this seven-furlong distance. WONDERMENT has run several races that would make her a handful in here, though she can’t always be counted on to run one of her good ones, which makes her tough to take at any shorter price; moved first, but appeared to catch a lucky bob to prevail over BEE NOTEWORTHY at Finger Lakes last month. BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE has never been out of the exacta in six starts to date, and she is looking for three in a row after new Beyer top clearing her NY-bred conditions last time; tries seven for the first time vs, tougher horses, but 92 figure earned there the top last out number in the field by several lengths

NINTH RACE

PATENTAR getting significant class relief after appearing to rush the gate and steadying vs. a strong field in his NY debut; has been tough when properly spotted since arriving stateside. AIRE BUENO landed in some tough situations upon arrival in NY earlier this year, but he was gamely second-best at this level last time behind Iron Power, who came back with another solid effort on Friday. LEWIS VALE has blown stretch leads in his last two starts, and he may face some early pressure from SILVER DAGGER in this race, but he has that horse out-posted and his recent form is solid. RAY’S THE BAR taking a big drop with a trainer change after failing to deliver on his early potential; has been rank in his first two starts this year, but he is going to be tough in here if he can find his good form.