ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, BONES

FIRST RACE

VOILA LA VICTOIRE returns to South Florida and he ran well when at Gulfstream earlier this year, including a solid effort against better before she shipped up north; capable of making the last run with a clean trip and the right set up. BREAK AWAY has tactical speed and an inside post, which should lead to a favorable trip; ability to lead or rate a big plus. HOLLYWOOD TOMCAT will try once again to get back on the green after her last two were rained off the grass and onto the main track; best Beyers fit nicely.

SECOND RACE

NIGHT RYTHM stretches out from sprints, and while his last try at this distance was around one turn he ran well enough there, and in two-turn turf races prior to that one; should be prominent from the start from his inside post. JUDITHS NATHAN broke through the maiden ranks in his latest and the resulting Beyer puts him in the mix in his first start vs. winners; note the legit pace excuse two back. RACHEL’S WARRIOR is another making his first start vs. winners after breaking his maiden in his latest, with a race flow excuse in his prior; barn sports a positive ROI with last-out winners.

THIRD RACE

SEUSS makes his first start off the claim for a barn which wins at a high rate with same; trainer Darien Rodriguez also wins at a high rate with horses stretching out from sprints to routes, as well as with turf runners overall. REGAL FORCE was off the board under similar circumstances last time but he was squarely against the pace scenario, which favored speeds (see inverted “S” in DRF pps); faster fractions will almost certainly move him up. SCHETTINO will be a threat despite the rise in class off the claim if he’s able to take back off the pace and make one run.

FOURTH RACE

RANGER’S COMING chased SHERPA in his last try on the dirt but he was at a pace disadvantage there, as the latter controlled the pace from the start in a race lacking speed; can turn the tables if he gets a quick, contested pace this time around. ARRECIFE cuts back from routes but he has the speed to contend from the start, and he could prove tough at this reduced level if the pace isn’t on the swift side; improvement expected off his latest, as that was no easy trip. CORONADO AGAIN is another pace factor, and though he’s widest he may be quick enough to make the lead; another dropping in class with serious upside.

FIFTH RACE

AUGUST LILLY makes the mandatory rise after beating non-winners of two lifetime rather easily in her first start off the short rest; may be a new horse for trainer Ron Spatz, as that 72 figure she earned for that effort was the best Beyer of her career. KISSKISS TELLTELL is a stone closer in need of pace but if she gets it she has license to pick up some of the leaders late; last couple of Beyers put her in the thick of this. EVIL TWIN was aided by the race flow in that last one but she could be in a similar situation here, as there does seem to be enough speed in the race to set her up for a late run.

SIXTH RACE

FLATTRIP is out of Trip, a multiple stakes winner routing on the main track, and he’s kin to three winners who were at their best going long on dirt; sports a couple of nice works for this and he debuts for a barn which does well with debut maiden claimers. SHOOTIST was a remote 2nd in

his dirt debut last time but the resulting Beyer gives him strong credibility; tactical speed should mean he’s well spotted from the start. BRASS

BADGE hit the board in three of four starts prior to the layoff; inside draw and tactical speed should help his cause.

SEVENTH RACE

NEWMANS FAST GIRL was 2nd in her debut, and while she moves up in class for this she fits well on the strength of the figure she earned there; obviously tough against this group if she is able to run back to that effort/Beyer. CIOMARA was off the board in her lone try on the grass to date but a slow start cost her, and she was moving well late; a clean trip and a faster pace would clearly move her up. SILVIA O. stretches out for the first time and should be prominent from the start as a result.

EIGHTH RACE

BONES has speed but can also rate, and she could fall into a perfect trip behind the speeds in her first start since April; latest work for this was sharp. RICH MOMMY is one of the expected speeds, and though she can rate a bit her inside draw may force Jaramillo’s hand a bit; barn excels with runners returning from this type of layoff. NIKKI BELLA lost for the first time in her latest — at odds of 3-10 — but the sloppy track provides a convenient excuse; the race-long duel also didn’t help, and she can be expected to rebound today if she gets an easier trip.

NINTH RACE

PERP ran well in Jersey prior to the layoff, producing Beyers that make him a top contender in this field; main concern is the lack of a clear-cut pace scenario in this race, as he’ll be looking to close, but he does have the tactical speed to at least stay close early on. IL NONNO has some of the better Beyers in this field, and he’ll be tough if he can run to them; main concerns are the wide draw and his relative lack of positional early speed. SANAD doesn’t have the best of win percentages but he has to be considered an exotics threat based on his best Beyers.

TENTH RACE

UNTRUE drops in class for her first start since May, and while that can be considered a red flag this may simply be the right class level for her, as she struggled against better earlier in the year; figures to be ideally spotted behind a lively pace. CASE DISMISSED is another who stands to benefit from a favorable pace set up, something she didn’t get in either of last two appearances; looking for her to move up today. PURE BLISS is one of the likely speeds; comes off a game try for the place in her latest.

ELEVENTH RACE

DENEB was a beaten favorite in each of her last two, back in the spring, but he didn’t run badly in either of those races, especially when she was stuck behind a slow opening quarter in her latest; positional speed a big plus. GO CRISTIAN GO has extensive experience, which is not necessarily a positive when it comes to maiden claimers, but he does fit well in terms of his recent turf Beyers; 2nd in each of his last three on the grass. SOUTHERN SEA was 2nd in a good effort in her last try at this exact distance; should be closing late.