ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, ICY STREET

FIRST RACE

An improved effort second time out by IT’S A NEW YEAR stamps him the horse to beat in this $62.5k maiden-claiming route for 2yos. Stretching out from a sprint, he rolled up to chase a strong pace, and tired to third in deep stretch. Not bad for just the second start of his career. He was gelded since, has speed to create his own trip, and can handle this group with one more forward move. FLIP THE COIN JAN finished in front of the top choice last out, his second consecutive runner-up finish vs. similar. ‘JAN got banged around on the first turn, ran well thereafter, and finished okay for second. The race the top pair exit was validated when the fourth- and seventh-place finishers returned to win. ARNO’S MANE MAN drops from special-weight and stretches to a route for the first time, while CROATION also drops in class and returns to dirt. Based on a fast half-mile workout early this week, he might produce more speed.

SECOND RACE

FULL ACCESS improved since switching to turf. The lightly raced gelding virtually split the field two back, and last out finished second in a $25k claiming turf route. Both were against older, he shows in a claiming race restricted to 3yos for his first since changing barns. Trainer Vladimir Cerin is 3-for-6 first start off the claim since August. If he continues his upward pattern, ‘ACCESS can absolutely win this turf mile. SWINGING STAR drops for the first time into the claiming ranks after finding allowance company too tough. Although his ability to get two turns is uncertain, he certainly is facing easier. Based on pedigree, he should get the trip. ALLABOUTMIKE is the speed of the field, also dropping from N1X vs. older to age-restricted claiming. The challenge is his up-front style goes against the opening-week course profile. Closers had the advantage regardless of position of the temporary rails.

THIRD RACE

AIRFOIL was claimed from a sharp win last out at this $8k claiming level. He enters with less uncertainty than the potential favorite KAFISTER, who drops drastically in class. AIRFOIL posted sharp works since he was claimed by Justin Evans, his recent figures are solid for the level, he has won four of his last 12, and his pressing style should lead to a good trip right behind the pace. Basically, he enters without a knock. KAFISTER once would have crushed a field such as this, but his current form is suspect. He was claimed for $32k two back, a race in which he finished next to last, then dropped to $20k and finished far back again after pressing a hot pace. Now he drops all the way to $8k. He probably is the speed of the field, and could be gone on the mega-drop. Trust him? Nope. PRAY HARD returned to form this fall when dropped to the bottom. A nine-time winner, he has speed, is drawn outside, and should get a good trip pressing the pace in the clear.

FOURTH RACE

The runner-up finish by SUMMER’S INDY was better than the official figure (72 Beyer). She settled off the pace, rallied willingly, and finished nearly three lengths clear of third in one of the fastest 6.5-furlong races of Santa Anita fall. The number does not do justice to her effort. Three easy works for trainer Phil D’Amato since, an outside post, and proven at this distance. She is sitting on a win. However, she faces interesting first-time starters. SPRING LILY is a Union Rags first-time starter with a solid workout pattern for trainer Cliff Sise at San Luis Rey Downs. It is interesting Mike Smith is named to ride; he and Sise are 4-for-8 since early this year including a 6-1 upset by first-timer Meadowsweet. BELLA BE READY posted a pair of sharp recent gate works for trainer Steve Miyadi, who does not typically work his debut maidens fast. Miyadi and appren-

tice Evin Roman are 3-for-8 since June with firsttime starters. THIRTEEN SQUARED has speed, worked a bullet five-eighths early this week, and returns to surface on which she finished a creditable third in her debut.

FIFTH RACE

Five furlongs is the shortest distance GENERAL IKE has raced, but in his current form, it might be the right trip. He set or pressed blazing fractions both recent starts at longer distances (one mile, six and a half), and tired in both. Now he cuts back to five, looks like the speed of the field, and can be gone. However, speed was not great in turf sprints opening week. SECRETO PRIMERO is proven at this short distance, with a closing style opposite the top choice. He finished well for second last out, after nowhere to go into the lane; the race was validated when the winner returned to finish third by a neck in a $93k stakes. ‘PRIMERO won a turf sprint here in 2016, and will roll late. AOTEAROA returns from a five-month layoff. Five furlongs is possibly shorter than he prefers also, but this stable typically sends turf-sprint comebackers out ready to roll. He will finish. ROUGH PASSAGE has token speed that could keep the top choice honest. Also-eligible ZURI CHOP would prefer an inside draw, but he certainly is good enough and proven over the course.

SIXTH RACE

IKE WALKER was in a tough N2X last out at Los Al, and compromised by a wide trip. He finished last as the favorite. Now he drops to N1X/optional $32k claiming, returns to the Del Mar track on which he is 3 for 5, and is reunited with the rider who guided him to his two most-recent wins. The 9-for-33 pro is the obvious horse to beat, so it appears. GOT EVEN shook loose and wired this level one month ago. He is always tough when he makes the lead and slows it down; that could happen again because this field does not include much in the way of opposing speed. Win or lose, he is the one to catch. Last out, he defeated SHEER FLATTERY rather soundly. However, the race was at Santa Anita and ‘FLATTERY was running long for the first time since winter. With a route under his belt, and a different surface, expect ‘FLATTERY to at least narrow the gap. INCREDIBLE LUCK returns from a short break for a stable whose comebackers are often “live.”

SEVENTH RACE

Although he finished fourth as the favorite last out, the maiden ICY STREET actually ran super. A deep closer, he smoked the final three furlongs in 34.38 seconds, finished like a freight train, but ran out of stretch in a Santa Anita turf race that was dominated by the 1-2-3 pacesetters. It was s solid effort. The colt ran well twice on Del Mar’s course in summer, might benefit by the shorter one-mile distance, and can rally for his maiden win as the most probable winner on the Sunday card. He is trained by John Sadler, who also entered CONQUEST SMARTEE. The latter is a full brother to G1 route winner/top California sire Square Eddie. This is the first route for ‘SMARTEE, who is expected to set the pace. He could get brave, although the closers-friendly course profile is against time. SHAKY ALIBI went too quick on the lead and tired to seventh last out. That was his first route, he benefits by the shorter distance of this mile race. CASCADE ROCK also ran well last out, finishing third. Key rider switch to Corey Nakatani. Also-eligible INDOCTRINATION missed by a neck last out, but would be starting from the far outside if he does draw in.

EIGHTH RACE

This sprint stakes for California-bred fillies and mares is tough. The call goes to HOW ABOUT ZERO, whose comeback in a N1X turf sprint at Santa Anita was highly rated (90 Beyer) and visually impressive. She pressed the pace, ran away late, and won by more than five lengths with plenty in the tank. She was a main-track stakes winner at this sevenfurlong trip as a juvenile, and is sharp enough to handle the class hike. MAJESTIC HEAT drops from a G2 turf route in which she finished sixth, wheels back in eight days, shortens in distance and tries dirt for the first time in her career. Her last two starts vs. Cal-bred stakes company produced turfroute wins; she will roll late and probably is the “class” of the field. It is a tall order, however, for a two-turn turf mare to win a dirt sprint. LATE ‘N LEFT is speed, though she takes off blinkers. She is 3-for-4 on this track, runner-up last out after setting an honest pace, and probably the one to catch. BAD JU JU returns to preferred main-track footing. BARBARA BEATRICE won her comeback on the Santa Anita; she can dirt. Deep race.

NINTH RACE

EBADAN shortens to a mile after he was compromised by a fast pace in a similar $25K claiming turf route at a mile and one-eighth. Blinkers off could allow him to ration his speed more effectively. CONQUEST SABRE CAT drops from $40k for his second start back. He picks up a top rider and could get a comfortable trip positioned right behind the speed. TAIMA THE HAWK stretches out and drops in class. SILENT MOVIES will be among the pacesetters, though MITHQAAL has a similar style. BANZE NO OESTE won a similar race here in August; COLOUR ME HAPPY will roll late. Deep race.