ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, TIMBER CRUISER

FIRST RACE

Quarter horses.

SECOND RACE

ALOTTA LOUIE could show speed from the rail at a decent price as he goes third off the layoff. ROCKY’S HIGH is probably the one to beat due to improved most recent. He has speed so working out a trip with rail runner is the iffy part. DANS DIAMOND is the best of the rest. We think it is interesting that Ramgeet would ride.

THIRD RACE

MOST DETERMINED doesn’t have to beat much as this allowance affair has come up weak. Local tab is just fine while Scott Stevens won a stakes race on Saturday. Beaten favorite angle also applies. SIR MATADOR was 103-1 in his most recent but it was going down the dip at Santa Anita and coming off a layoff. A good prep for this nonetheless. This barn is 22% on the stretch-out. AIRSHIP will need a new top to win this or the favorites to fall flat. Closing style is no help as there just isn’t much or any pace in here. Works are well spaced.

FOURTH RACE

MR. IRRELEVANT just ran much better when second time on this dirt. Breaking slowly two back did not help matters. This gelding has some speed and draws outside main pace foe. INTRINSIC didn’t do much in his debut at Indiana but we can forgive anyone’s debut. Both sibs won including a 37K earner (1 for 4). Lots and lots of local works. RESPECT THE SHOT drops way down which is scary enough. His debut was quite good but notice that the claim from that race was voided. Blinkers come OFF but we doubt that is a fix all. The good news is that he doesn’t face much. Over bet? Oh, yea. BOB T is by a 8% debut sire. His dam went 36-7-9-2 for 128K. Lone sib is 4-0-0-2 for $5,540.

FIFTH RACE

QUALITY KAY is a classic Diodoro SoCal shipper big drop down. This filly’s Beyer advantage is off the charts. With this effort, this filly will qualify for starter H-caps down the road. Rarely do we see these types get claimed off Diodoro. Hello 1/5. I AM GOING GLOBAL ran well only two back but couldn’t repeat last out while wide. New barn doesn’t claim many or any. We expect to see some tactical speed from this gal. C. C. TOP is in good form. First time winners is no picnic but this filly does have some upside. Maybe she just likes it here? We don’t think her maiden breaker took too much out of her as the Beyer only came back a 27. Second time this dirt can only help. As long as the rail runner stays in, everyone else is an overlay.

SIXTH RACE

TIMBER CRUISER goes second time this dirt, drops way down, gets a send jockey, and has speed. This gelding draws the attack post and should find the front end where an early breather awaits. We don’t normally like double digit maidens but we will make an exception today. MOONLIGHT TA KELA has only run poorly once and that was a turf route in her debut. New barn finds a good spot but the cut back isn’t our favorite. COLONEL GOTHAM gets class relief and ends up in a good guy barn with Doug Oliver. This gelding did get a little bit of play in his debut in SoCal..

SEVENTH RACE

NORTHERN IOWA just figures. He was unlucky to lose both of his most recent starts. Outside posts in both of those but this 8 hole isn’t that much better (hey, it’s not worse). Tactical speed to help with his trip and he gets good race flow. BRAVADO is just a solid runner. Forget that turf try two back and maybe he needed his most recent also. Speed

with other speed is a small knock but here is where a veteran jockey in Stevens comes in handy. AFRICAN FIGHTER burned chalky players in his last two. New barn and jock are noted. Race flow is better for sure.

EIGHTH RACE

MY MAJESTY didn’t get the best of starts last out and that hurt. This gelding did cost 47 large. He has good speed and should be up close and personal today. Main pace foes are drawn inside and that might help. PRESIDENTIAL BIRD just won nicely on this dirt and goes for the top barn so there is that. Where is the in between starts work? Off the pace runner tries first time winners but will be made the favorite nonetheless. FIRE BOSS is a hard trier at times. Second time this dirt at a good price intrigues us. If looking for a super horse then why not EXECUTIVE DECREE who just ran a Beyer top when first on this dirt. Second time with new barn can’t hurt. With a little luck, this gelding could stalk a decent pace.