ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, BULL DOZER

FIRST RACE

MODERN TALE was re- claimed by the Imaginary Stables and trainer Elizabeth Dobles, out of his latest after they lost him for the same price ($12,500) two back, and he’s a strong fit in this starter allowance based on his best recent figures; tactical speed and inside post add to the appeal. DEPENDABLE PHIL is another making his first start off a claim, and new trainer Peter Walder has strong long-term numbers with new faces; solid work for this race on Saturday. DREAM SHOT was aided by favorable race flows in each of his last two but he has to be respected off the figures he posted in those races.

SECOND RACE

LIL’S FAST BOY figures to be well spotted behind a contested pace, with a couple of speeds to his outside, and if he does sit a perfect trip he should be able to run to his best Beyers, which are plenty good enough; first start off the claim for Marcial Navarro, who is winning at a 23% clip with such runners. POLISHED STEEL is one of the expected speeds, and though he faded on a loose lead in his latest that was a race which featured a fair amount of speed, and it set up well for closers; better effort likely. PROMETE has some speed of his own and should be prominent from the start; back on the Gulfstream Park West main track, which is where he posted his lone career win.

THIRD RACE

THREE QUESTIONS ran an odd but enterprising race in her turf debut, racing wide down the backstretch and on the turn and seemingly finding a new gear in the very late stages after she was seemingly finished; today’s addition of blinkers could well help the cause. VENEZUELAN FOREVER comes out of the same race and she ran well in defeat as well, closing some ground late in a race which featured a slow early pace; should be running late. VIBRANT SPIRIT drops in for a tag for the first time and fits well with the locals based on her Beyers.

FOURTH RACE

REBEL RITHMS didn’t break well in his debut but he rallied nicely in the lane and earned a 50 Beyer; he would need to post a better figure to win this but that’s certainly possible if he gets a trip behind a contested pace, which certainly seems plausible. VALDOCCO is one of the likely speeds in this field, and could prove tough to reel in if he gets away with a relatively easy lead; back Beyers make him formidable. FOR THE GIPPER has speed but can also rate, and that versatility should help him work out a good trip regardless of race flow.

FIFTH RACE

MUSICAL HEART is the first starter from the dam but Leonessa herself was best on the grass, and this gelding has been working well toward his bow; expecting him to come running for a barn which excels with firsters in maiden claiming races. MONONGAH adds blinkers and could be the main speed from the rail, as this race does seem to be a little light on pace; note the barn’s solid returns in pertinent trainer categories. FELIX IN FABULA also adds blinkers — and Lasix — but the angle that catches the eye is trainer Christophe Clement’s record with horses dropping from Maiden Special Weight company into maiden claimers; that 44% strike rate makes this colt a threat by default.

SIXTH RACE

BULL DOZER was certainly aided by a favorable pace scenario in that last one, when 2nd at this level, but he projects to be well set up in this sprint as well, as there’s a good amount of speed in here; thinking he’ll be able to make the last run. COTTON COLORS is another who stands to benefit from the expected race flow; he was off the board in his latest but he was moving well late despite a tepid pace in that mile try. TREV has some early zip but if he can rate off the pace and make a stretch bid he should be ideally positioned off the likely duel.

SEVENTH RACE

LITTLE BRIDGE rallied nicely to score in her career debut, a race rained off the turf and onto the main track, and while this is her first start on the green she is a half to Grace Appeal, who won her own debut on the grass as well as two other turf races; she’ll be looking to make the last run but she should get ample pace. ROSES IN THE SOUTH didn’t look back after getting loose on the lead in her latest, and while she may not have the luxury of a clear lead this time around she has to be respected off that effort; note that she rated nicely two back, when she finished 2nd. L. A. HOUSE cuts back in distance after breaking her maiden when last seen but she should fall into a nice trip here, given the expected quick pace.

EIGHTH RACE

DINNER PARTY, the first starter out of an unraced dam, draws her appeal from her connections, as trainer Jason Servis is exceptional when it comes to firsters, especially when it comes to maiden claimers; very much expecting this filly to come out running. BLUES SONGS is also the first starter from her dam, and her connections are also strong when it comes to debut runners; rail draw not ideal for an inexperienced runner but she is likely to be a threat given a clean getaway. BIG LIZ adds blinkers after a slow start cost her her best chance in her debut; drop in class another plus.

NINTH RACE

SU SU’S KITTEN was a game winner in her latest, against lesser, and though she didn’t earn the best of Beyers for that effort the slow fractions made it difficult for a close to put up a strong figure; should get a much better pace to chase in this finale and she can repeat with a clean trip, likely at a price. DEGREES OF FREEDOM stretches out from a sprint in her most recent, which came in July, but she has shown she can sit just off the pace and make one run if need be; dangerous in her first start for the new barn. STAY SAFE KITTEN benefited greatly from the pace scenario in her win at The Meadowlands last time but a similar set-up seems likely here.