ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, CASS IN STONE

FIRST RACE

GYPSY JANIE has performed well in each of her two starts, winning first out at Ellis Park and then losing by just 3 1/4 lengths when sixth Oct. 26 at Keeneland against a far better group of $ 40,000 claimers than today’s bunch. UNO SUENO sprang to life when equipped with blinkers Sept. 22, whipping maiden $20,000 claimers by 5 1/4 lengths over this track. That race was legitimized when third-place Lovely Petunia returned to win at Keeneland. MY DARK SECRET was a non factor in her first three starts and then blew away maiden $ 40,000 stock at Keeneland. Enthusiasm tempered by the barn connecting at just a 8-percent rate this year.

SECOND RACE

CASS IN STONE, twice third in as many starts for his current stable, exits allowance company and should benefit from moving into a $ 30,000 N2L claimer; returns following a short break and typically performs well when fresh. BURGAMEISTER looks tough based on current form but will not offer much of a price. He is 7- 5 on the line, and figures to drop below that following a near-miss at Keenleand Oct. 6 after a troubled start. Asmussen does well with horses he claims for himself, though this one might not be as comfortable routing as he is racing seven furlongs to a mile. FUDGE PROUD was dropped in for a tag last time at this level and ran fourth in a sprint; yet to route, but simply looks faster than all but the top two.

THIRD RACE

DREAMING OF J C only beat one horse in his debut, but debuting in a straight maiden race at Kentucky Downs is tricky; has a grassy pedigree, but promising works on dirt suggest he may take to dirt after gaining experience first out. MAGNANIMUS MAN was claimed by winning connections for $ 30,000 at Keeneland; blew a clear lead to run third that day - not the first time this one has disappointed with his finish. PICKFORD chased the pace first out against straight maidens before weakening to ninth; was cold on the board 83-1, though he was matched against a far better field; shorter distance and easier company should make him competitive.

FOURTH RACE

READY TO CONFESS, twice graded placed, was dull in a Oct. 6 comeback at Keeneland, and logically figures to move forward from it in her second start off a layoff; now back on a surface over which she is a winner and has trained regularly. MINES AND MAGIC comes off a pair of runner-up finishes against similar foes, though way back during the spring meet. Being unraced since June may put her at a fitness disadvantage vs. the top selection. POLAR RIVER appeared to be a budding star in Dubai in the winter/spring of 2016, winning the UAE Oaks over Vale Dori and then running second to Triple Crown competitor Lani in the UAE Derby; imported to the U.S. after three unplaced finishes last season in Dubai, and perhaps getting treated with Lasix in the U.S. can get her back on track; in the hands of a winning trainer, as she was in Dubai.

FIFTH RACE

PISTONE STEEL runs first off the claim for trainer Brad Cox after a race at Churchill during the September meet in which he stumbled and lost his rider at the start; speedy and fast when he puts it all together; just one published work since being claimed but Cox doesn’t lead over horses lacking fitness. TOASTING MASTER isn’t as fast as he once was, but has been competitive lately while racing against comparable opposition at Indiana; now returns to Churchill, where he is 4 for 6. VACANZA managed a third for this $16,000 tag at Keeneland, though he was never a threat to the top two

finishers that day; gets more ground to go seven eighths, and already has a second and a third at this distance.

SIXTH RACE

MALIBU SAINT has improved with experience, most recently finishing second, beaten a neck, vs. allowance foes at Keeneland with a 73 Beyer; sharp work since at Trackside. SASSY SIENNA made her first two starts on turf before shifting to dirt and running fourth in the Grade 1 Aclibiades at Keeneland; not a chance she sticks to her 8-1 morning line - expect half that. MISS MO MENTUM was a eye- catching winner on the turf here in the September meet and then disappointed by running last over soft turf in the Grade 3 Jessamine at Keeneland; might catch some give in the ground again if it rains on Wednesday.

SEVENTH RACE

KING CORAL enters this race off two straight lowend claiming victories - wins that improved his dirt record to 15 for 65; might stick to is 5-1 morning line since those scores came at smaller tracks - Belterra and Hawthorne. GABRIEL’S CAT ran third at this class level Nov. 1 after falling farther off the pace than accustomed; typically runs best when stalking the leaders from a few lengths back. OH MY GRAVY owns respectable Beyers but is short on speed and is winless in seven starts this year after returning from a lengthy hiatus.

EIGHTH RACE

LESLEY MAY is a Tapit filly owned and bred by Stonestreet that has trained promisingly toward her debut for trainer Brendan Walsh, who was able to land his go-to rider, Corey Lanerie; a half to graded winner Uncaptured. AIN’T DAT SWEET, another first timer, comes from a successful Louisiana-bred family and has trained promisingly for his first start, capped by a near-bullet work form the gate in 48 flat Nov. 10; her half brother Saint’s Fan won first out at Churchill last year before taking a Louisiana-bred stake. PROMISSORY NOTE flashed speed before hitting the brakes first out, but should carry her speed farther with that experience behind her.

NINTH RACE

HIGH NOON RIDER faces much easier than he did last out at Keeneland when a close seventh in a third-level allowance; narrowly won an optional claimer like this one at Kentucky Downs in September and is also proven on the local lawn. FIFTH TITLE has rallied to grab second in two straight races after troubled beginnings and is perfect in two starts over the Churchill turf. BINGO KITTEN was just a half length behind ‘ TITLE when fourth at Keeneland, a race that followed a first-level allowance win over this course Sept. 23; six straight Beyers in the 80s.

TENTH RACE

SABBATARIAN is dropped in class from $16,000 to $ 8,000 and gets blinkers off - an equipment change that can lead to better efforts; 4- 0- 0- 0 at Churchill but battle tested vs. tougher and should be a price. SMALL TOWN HERO is a speedy sort that comes out of richer races, though bear in mind he exits a $ 20,000 claimer for 3-year- olds, a lesser race than a $ 20,000 claimer for 3-year- olds and up; still dangerous. SAFE PASSAGE has won two of his last four starts and was a fast winner last out, though vs. nickel N2L stock at Indiana Grand; likely to regress from the 74 Beyer he earned that day now that he is running against $ 8,000 N3L types at Churchill.