ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, TIZ ADORE

FIRST RACE

Four- start maiden ANTIOCH drops in for a tag for the first time, second start back. He exits a highly rated special-weight in which he finished fourth, he gets off the rail, and ran well both starts here in 2016. YA GOTTA WANNA might be worth backing at a higher price. ‘ WANNA improved significantly in his second start, finishing third despite trouble. He was hard-held in traffic, shuffled back passing the three- eighths, then kicked into gear late and actually finished fairly well. It was a better-than-looked effort by a colt that benefits by the outside post. He was uncomfortable between rivals last out. The handicapping challenge is that the winner of his race (Mister Mojo) finished more than five lengths behind the top choice on Oct. 7. Nonetheless, ‘ WANNA is improving and should offer wagering value in the 5-1 range. CONQUEROR is an 11- start maiden shortening to a sprint for his first in nearly two months. He finished more than eight clear of third last out; both starts on dirt were solid.

SECOND RACE

Five of the seven entrants in this Cal-bred N1X turf route exit the same race; the choice is a “new shooter” facing winners for the first time following a sharp maiden win. WELL DEVELOPED produced more speed in his second start, pressed the pace, broke it open into the lane and won convincingly. The lightly raced (two starts) Unusual Heat gelding has upside, and may handle the hike in class. His runner-up debut two back on the Del Mar course was solid; he broke last, trailed the field, and passed all but one rival. The horse that beat him was LOVELY ANZI, whose win was powerful. However, ‘ANZI regressed second out, pressing the pace and fading to sixth as the favorite in the aforementioned Cal-bred N1X. ‘ ANZI returns to the course on which he won so impressively in summer, while removing blinkers. If he runs back to his maiden win, he would be tough to beat. SIX POINT RACK rallied to third last out in the same race. Much improved this fall on turf, he will roll late. TRIBAL ROAR is running long on turf for the first time, and should be a pace factor.

THIRD RACE

The pick six begins with a relatively deep maidenclaiming sprint for 2yos. The call is SNAZZY DRESSER, who tired twice after pressing/setting relatively fast fractions. He drops from maiden50 to maiden-32, and drew an outside post where he may have options. Tab for a mild upset. RUN JEANNE RUN exits a fast-pace, productive claiming race for Cal-bred maidens. He pressed and faded; the two-three finishers returned to win. RUN JEANNE RUN was gelded since; he has a versatile running style (based on his fourth-place debut) that can allow him to press or rally. AMERICAN CURRENCY will be among the favorites based on his runner-up finish last out vs. tougher. He finished more than seven lengths clear of third; the speed figures he earned in both starts are highest in the field. Potential chalk, but he will be under pressure every step after breaking from the inside post. SANDBED drops and shortens to a sprint. Look for him late, possibly at a price.

FOURTH RACE

INCENSED is racing over his conditions in this N2X/optional $ 80k turf sprint, but it makes sense considering he was tons best last out finishing second in a N1X. He was blocked and buried from the top of the lane to the middle of the stretch, got clear too late, finished strongly, but fell short by a half-length. With a better trip/ride, he would have won clear. He benefits from a jockey switch to Flavien Prat, and could get a cozy trip saving ground right behind the speed. INCENSED is trained by Peter Miller, who also entered ANATOLIAN HEAT. The latter returns to the course on which his two starts produced a runner-up finish and an impressive comeback win in September. His most recent loss can be excused; he found himself dueling on the lead and tired. He might be better chasing a target. Shorter distance, jockey switch, logical contender. ZURI CHOP entered a $ 40k claiming turf sprint Sunday, but did not draw in. He shows up at a higher level, having won two of his last three. He will rally late. DOC CURLIN defeated the top choice here in August, and also will roll from behind.

FIFTH RACE

Assuming she reproduces her most recent dirt race two back, TIZ ADORE should be tough to beat in this $ 25k claiming N2L route. The only time she tried this level, in June on the Santa Anita dirt, she finished second while more than five clear of third. Although her career is checkered with layoffs, she usually shows up with an honest effort and on numbers appears simply the fastest in the field. LEA’S REWARD pressed and faded last out, but her dominating maiden win two starts back on this racetrack puts her in the hunt. MAJESTIC DIVA is suspect around two turns, but her maiden-20 crusher two starts back at seven furlongs makes her a viable candidate to wire the field.

SIXTH RACE

In a wide-open turf-sprint scramble for 2yo maiden fillies, the call is George Weaver-trained ship-in SENSIBLE MYTH. Weaver this year is 5-for-17 with debut 2yos (in New York) including three debut winners on turf. All systems go for ‘MYTH. The locally based first-timer CHICKATINI, trained by Pete Eurton, is the first runner from Eurton’s multiple G1-placed mare She’s Cheeky. If CHICKITINI is anything like her dam, she should run well first out. She’s Cheeky finished second by a length in her debut, at 42-1 odds. SHEZASPANISHDANCER found two turns out of reach; she may benefit by the cutback to a sprint. Her fifth-place debut, a sprint two back, was decent. SILKEN SKY went too fast on the lead second out, and faded to sixth in a downhill sprint at Santa Anita. She may prefer the shorter five-furlong distance of this. ANGELS N DEVILDOGS broke slowly and finished in front of only one in her debut. Now two months later, she switches to turf and is by a sire (Midshipman) whose progeny tend to run well on turf.

SEVENTH RACE

IKE WALKER scratched Sunday from a N1X/ optional $ 40k claiming race, and instead shows up in this N2X/optional $ 62.5 claiming race while returning to one of his favorite tracks. ‘ WALKER won this last three starts at Del Mar (twice in 2015, once in 2017). His fast win here in summer, for a $ 32k tag, might be enough. STORMIN MONARCHO has the top figures, albeit in New York. His first local start was disappointing (sixth of eight), he was claimed off the effort three months ago and could be a better horse this time around. The 14-for-53 multiple stakes winner has won races at eight tracks (Arlington, Hawthorne, Assiniboia Downs, Delaware, Laurel, Penn National, Aqueduct and Belmont). AVANTI BELLO was in too tough last out in a stakes race; his pace-pressing win two back vs. similar earned a number (95 Beyer) that would make him tough to beat. He has won at Del Mar. EL HUERFANO is speed, probably the one to catch.

EIGHTH RACE

Difficult conclusion nd to the Thursday card; this $ 62.5k maiden- claiming turf route could go any number of ways. The call is PRINCIPAL BOB, returning to turf and dropping in for a tag for the first time. WINNING ELEMENT, a Weaver-trained New York ship-in, also shows up for a tag. It is uncertain, however, if he really wants to run this far (mile and one eighth). AMAZON CRY finished second both recent starts vs. maiden- claiming rivals. He will roll late. BOTTLE SERVICE hit the board in five of seven turf starts. Tough race, wide open.