ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, NOMINAL DOLLARS

FIRST RACE

FOOCH dropping off the layoff and doing so as a new gelding, but this is a good move for Ward, and this horse had speed and didn’t give way despite proving to be no match in a very strong race in his debut. LOVE YOUR BUTTONS has run fine on turf without winning, but don’t mind him coming back to dirt off the claim and turning back; thought he ran well enough while putting in a wide run through the turn after a slow start, and he was favored in his only other main track start over a mile. SEETHISQUICK was last seen getting distanced on turf back in April, but he ran a couple of competitive races sprinting on dirt early on vs. much better horses, and he can factor here with any natural improvement; trainer has been quiet for past several months, but he was winning races earlier this year.

SECOND RACE

NOMINAL DOLLARS did okay as a closing sprinter for most of the summer but he is likely better with a little more distance underneath him, though he does need at least a little pace to help him out; had plenty of pace in that last one and did his best with it, but he was facing better horses there, and think this spot is easier despite the higher price tag. CONQUEST BIGLUCK E the horse to beat, and in fact is unlikely to lose if he can run his best race; that is in some question as he cuts in half for his first start off the claim following a 77-day layoff, and while he won three of four at Oaklawn with solid figures earlier this year, he has since lost four in a row, three of them as the favorite. TRY FLYING back to NY and back up in class after easily handling $10k claimers from off the pace at Parx; has won last two one-turn miles in NY, including game grinding win at Belmont in September. LYRICAL MIRACLE never wins, but he has been racing in competitive form lately while concentrating on sprints, and worth pointing out that each of his last two wins (they were a while ago) came in one-turn miles where he was able to keep close to the pace.

THIRD RACE

LOKI’S VENGEANCE can be unreliable and he will need his best stuff off the layoff, but he has run plenty of races that make him tough in this field, and he projects for a good trip on-or-near the lead in this race; has won each of his last three starts over seven furlongs, including this Stallion Series division last year, also off a layoff. Not giving up on GOLD FOR THE KING yet, and still think there is a chance that he turns out to be one of the better NY-bred sprinters going forward; never had much of a chance in Hudson that was dominated up close off the layoff, and it is still possible to project improvement upon the fast races he was running at 2 and as an early 3yo. BECKER’S GALAXY seems to be clearly better going longer, and his last race leaves something to be desired, but he bets the wet track excuse (he’s 0-13 when the main track isn’t fast) in his first start off the re-claim, and Rudy has been very live since racing moved to Aqueduct.

FOURTH RACE

THE PRESIDENCY moved forward to chase a solid pace and then just went evenly in the stretch after failing to reach contention in his debut, but that appears to be a race he can build on for trainer who moves them along through racing; may want more distance based on his pedigree, but he is still eligible to improve in his second start. FAST BOAT ran very well, and probably better than it looks, in debut where he challenged the very impressive Analyze It before that one just devastated him at the top of the stretch; don’t love the turn back to six for his second start, though based on his pedigree it could benefit him (City Zip on top, dams two wins both came sprinting) and he did

have some speed in that first one. RIDE TO THE

SUNSET debuting for an underrated trainer, and while Caleb’s Posse may not turn out to be much of a turf influence, this horse is a half to Get Jets, and there is plenty of turf on the dam side. SHALAKO has concentrated on turf throughout his career, but he has occasionally run well on the main track while mostly facing better horses and his fast dirt effort at Laurel earlier in the year was strong with a good trip; interesting that he moves back to dirt for his first start off the claim for sharp connections after running well in his last two starts on grass. ABIDING STAR dropped in class three starts back after losing his form, and he responded to win three in a row while bumping up in class each time (the last two on turf); plenty of back races on dirt to keep it going, and his speed plays in this field. MILLS hung badly in Saratoga route that was originally scheduled for turf, and he has returned to finished second in both starts off the claim for his new connections; clear contender with his typical stuff but he has never been one to mind settling at the end on either surface.

SIXTH RACE

KRAMPUS dropped off the layoff for his second start after having a bit if a trip in his debut, but he looked good winning that race, and he came back with an even better performance to gun down a loose pacesetter last time; steps up. BUSINESS EXPENSE was given a terrific ride from an outside post in his career debut upstate, and he didn’t face a strong field in that race, but even accounting for those things he looked pretty good winning that race with a strong finish once working his way clear in the stretch; not sure where he’s been in the 88 days since that race, but he appears to have some talent. RAPT’s 1 for 7 record so far this year belies the improvement he has shown, as he has held his own in some pretty tough spots, and has had some trouble along the way; running style often works against him, but he will be running late.

SEVENTH RACE

CHURCH SOCIAL is often pace-compromised and is just about out of chances, but it’s not clear that she has a character flaw, and this appears to be the best spot she has found in a while; don’t mind her cutting back to a shorter route for Shug, who has sent out a couple of strong winners over the past few days, and like that this filly ran well over this turf course to break her maiden around this time last year. NAWLINS KITTY got off to a good start last summer before getting bumped up into some much tougher races; 0-4 since starting back for her new trainer this year, but she has shown much improved tactical speed. BONITA SPRINGS finding the waters a little deeper since clearing her statebred conditions and needs a trip from her outside post, but she is tactical in a field where a good trip can go a long way.

EIGHTH RACE

FAVORABLE OUTCOME was outfinished late by HARLAN PUNCH when they faced each other at Belmont in September, but considering that was FAVORABLE OUTCOME’s first start back from a long layoff, and that he went first to wrest control of that race before the stretch, he may have run every bit as well as the 1-2 finishers of that race; rail draw isn’t ideal, but will give him one more chance. HARLAN PUNCH had the better trip in some ways when finishing ahead of the top one, but that takes nothing away from what was another solid performance from this horse since being claimed by Jacobson; tough once again if he can keep it going. SKYLER’S SCRAMJET pulled off a surprise last time at 30:1, but that race didn’t exactly come out of nowhere for gelding who was impressive winning his career debut with a figure, and he chased that fast pace all the way in that upset win last time; now 2 for 2 for Nevin and his speed plays in this field.

NINTH RACE

Wasn’t sure CAPTAIN HARDSHIP was that badly affected while in some stretch traffic in 5th-place finish over this trip at Saratoga, but he was a bit unlucky in his next start when unable to get clear until too late while everyone else was rallying outside into a fast pace, and he raced on gamely into that slow pace last time, where he likely ran every bit as well as both CULTURE CARRIER and IM THE CAPTAIN NOW; will take him as the better price of the three. CULTURE CARRIER was impressive with a fast finish in his debut after a green beginning, and he stayed on well while up in class and out in distance in that last one; tough if he comes forward again, but not sure how short he should be in this field. Thought IM THE CAPTAIN NOW ran well last time while rallying from the back into that slow pace, and doing it down toward the inside, but he did save the ground in that race, and he is starting to run out chances after blowing some good trips/setups along the way. GLAD MOON is a little interesting shipping in to NY to make second career start for a dangerous trainer off a layoff, and he did appear to be a horse who likely needed his first start, but he didn’t exactly find an easy spot here; Dickinson 6 for his last 11 with maidens making their second career start on turf (55%, $4.02 ROI), but the winners are mostly short prices (averaging around 5:2 odds), and three of the five losses in that sample came in NY.