ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, THIRTY NINE SEVEN

FIRST RACE

NATURE’S FORTUNE mounted a wide bid for fifth behind a future maiden special winner at first asking in a two-turn maiden special taken off the turf five weeks ago. The nicely-bred son of Tiznow is the first foal from a turf stakes winner, and his trainer excels with maiden second-time starters. SOUTHERN GREATNESS, who hasn’t had any luck getting onto the lawn, is a full-brother to G3 Royal North winner Jenny’s So Great. MATTHEW’S RIDGE was a prominent third while finishing ahead of the top pick in his best effort Oct. 14.

SECOND RACE

ARK OFTHE COVENANT went five-wide on the turn before closing for fourth in her local debut going five-eighths. With a race over the track, she should be more effective in this seven-furlong tilt for $25 K. FRESH IE IN THE FOREST missed the break before closing four-wide for second in a six-furlong sprint at this price Nov. 3. WESTLODGE DIVA is shortening up off a troubled run going long to what might be a suitable distance for her.

THIRD RACE

HOLD’ EMFORRANSOM stalked a speed duel and then pounced when breaking his maiden two back in a seven-furlong maiden special. He has lots of speed to chase in this N1X, and could be along in time. PERFECT FORESTER was in solid frontrunning form before breaking outward en route to finishing second after a stalking trip in a fivefurlong N1X on the main track Oct. 21. RATFACE MACDOUGALL was a gutsy gate-to-wire victor vs. NW3 OS allowance/$40K rivals a month ago.

FOURTH RACE

COOL AND STORMY set quick fractions before fading to fourth when experimenting around two turns on the Tapeta in her latest. Turning back to seven-eighths should be ideal for the daughter of Stormy Atlantic. After a tardy start, MAGICAL HOLIDAY rallied for second over good turf going seven-eighths Oct. 13. She seems equally adept on either surface. Unraced AMBITIOUS MOON is well-bred daughter of Malibu Moon and G2 turf stakes winner Ambitious Cat, who produced the stakes-placed Cool Faith. Her trainer has an 8% strike rate with firsters over the past five years ($2.24 ROI).

FIFTH RACE

UNO CHAMP ran quite wide until the far turn last time before ending up fifth in his second straight two-turn attempt. He’s going on Lasix while retaining Lermyte, and could find the mark as a longshot. FOLLOW MY LEAD came up empty in the final furlong after a stalking trip over yielding turf Nov. 4. He closed from off fast splits the time before when second to Kitten’s Boy, who subsequently ran third as the favorite in the Coronation Futurity. BOBBY’S ESCAPE couldn’t keep up during a wide journey in the Coronation, when he was wound up pre-race, as usual. Use him underneath in the exotics, along with OCTOBERFEST.

SIXTH RACE

DUTCH BLITZ failed to duplicate his encouraging debut (a troubled third for $25K) most recently, when a flat third for $40K. He’s plunging to $16K, while shortening up a little to six furlongs, and should make the grade under Simon Husbands, who’s 2 for 7 at the meet for this trainer. OFF ROAD was scratched from a $10K tilt on Saturday in favor of this tougher assignment. He’s worked regularly since getting claimed from a second for $10K Oct. 4. KABBA comes off a much-improved second against easier, and HOLTZ figures to be a minor player.

SEVENTH RACE

WICKED WEST wired $25K maidens last time in an Oct. 7 turf sprint, from which the runner-up exited to finish second behind the favorite for $40K. She’s nicely-spotted in this $20K NW2 event on

the Tapeta, on which she worked a bullet the other day. MOST INSPIRING was surprisingly empty last time as the favorite in a turf sprint at this level. Her previous form was decent, and she’s eligible to rebound with Contreras taking over. AFLEET DOLL competes with bare shoes again after coming close to finding the mark in a similar spot Nov. 3.

EIGHTH RACE

GRACE AND DIGNITY won both of her outings in front-running style with ease going three-quarters, by a combined total of nearly 11 lengths, with a Beyer in the low 80s. She should make short work of this light group in her stakes debut going seven-eighths, a distance which should be within her range. WIN THE WAR rallied wide from sixth in her recent debut to win a maiden special turf sprint, after trying to lug in through the stretch. The $700K yearling purchase by War Front has since worked quickly on the Tapeta. PERFECTION CAT ran third in both of her main track starts, before graduating in a grass route that contained two next-out winners Oct. 13.

NINTH RACE

THIRTY NINE SEVEN failed to threaten after racing four-wide on both turns in a recent $32K maiden contest. The daughter of hot sire Court Vision was previously second in a $40K sprint, and should take some beating in this seven-furlong race for $25K maidens. Note that her trainer possesses excellent numbers with turnbacks. FAIRY HILL is dropping to a logical spot after landing on the edges in a pair of OS maiden special events. ADIOS MIA is by a 14% 2yo debut sire, and she worked a fast five-eighths Oct. 18. Toss MEGALOPSYCHIA in the super.

TENTH RACE

TINKER RING disposed of three rivals on the lead, after racing three-wide on the turn, before tiring to fourth in a deceptively-strong performance two weeks ago. CONQUEST SWAGMAN closed inside for third after awaiting room on the turn against tougher $20K NW2 stock in his latest. FLYING GHOST earned a 70 Beyer when capturing his second start vs. $16K maidens after a good trip Oct. 25. Use MAJESTIC HEIST and DEVIL’S BAYOU on the bottom of vertical wagers in this $10K NW2 tilt.