ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, PANTSONFIRE

FIRST RACE

Bred to run long, the 2yo filly SUPER PATRIOT stretches out following an okay fourth-place comeback in a turf sprint. Sired by Unusual Heat, she had a right to improve on grass. And, she did. Now she goes long in a race that came up light. LUCKY AT THE BAY, from a family of winners (Tamarando, U’narack, Luckarack, Tamarack Smarty, Ward ‘n Jerry), was only prepping three weeks ago when ninth in a turf sprint. She is likely to improve around two turns. MO SEE CAL entered a turf sprint Thursday, but did not draw in from the also-eligible list. The fast-working Uncle Mo filly instead makes her debut around two turns.

SECOND RACE

Third in both recent starts at this $25k claiming N2L level, FIRE TO THE WIRE figures for a pressing trip from his outside post. The horse that finished directly in front of him last out returned to win, albeit a lower level. CLICKJAB returns from a layoff of more than one year, in a claiming race while entered “not to be claimed.” That is an optimistic move when employed by a top stable. The gelding’s form in special-weight races from 2014 to 2016 was decent; trainer Mike Puype won with 2 of his last 7 comebackers off more than one year. SPECIAL STORY goes route to sprint; HANDFUL OF STRIPES also shortens in distance and adds speed.

THIRD RACE

CIAO BELLA ROSA drops to the maiden-20 level for the first time as the one to beat, even though this is her first start on dirt. Her 10 previous starts, all turf, were against better company. She finished in the money five times. LET ME FLATTER YOU finished third both dirt routes early this year; this is her first start since January for a trainer that does well with comebackers. Since early 2014, trainer Richard Baltas is 5-for-14 with maiden claiming returnees off six months or more. HOTSY DOTSY is a 13-start maiden whose runner-up finish last out puts her in the hunt.

FOURTH RACE

A romping two-turn maiden win on synthetic at Golden Gate Fields stamps QUINNIE the one to beat in this turf starter allowance for 2yo fillies. Stretching out for the first time, QUINNIE pressed the slow pace and ran away late to win by more than eight lengths. Big win by a filly bred for grass. She was sired by English Channel; her dam is an unraced sibling to G2 turf winner Big Bane Theory. QUINNIE can win right back. WINS IN FASHION faces a challenge regarding surface. Though not bred for grass, her route win last out on dirt was decisive. She won by more than six while employing the same slow-early-fast-late style as the top choice. LADY PHYLLIS ran well sprinting both starts in Florida; this is her California debut for a top stable.

FIFTH RACE

BLACK TIE ‘N TAILS missed by a head last out in a fast-pace, highly rated race vs. similar N2L claiming sprinters. If he runs as well at Del Mar as he ran at Santa Anita, he can be gone. DEVILS INFORMER returns from a 16-month layoff as a first-time gelding, first start for a claim tag. His abbreviated workout pattern is curious, but this stable does well with comebackers. TWO THIRTY FIVE pressed his way to a 36-1 upset win last out in a maiden-20, and is realistically spotted in a N2L for his first against winners. DAD’S A GAMBLER is in from Northern California for his first start in nearly five months. He fits with this bunch.

SIXTH RACE

Although she faces a different pace scenario than her smashing debut, HEART OF THE NILE is the choice to make it two straight. First out, she lagged off a blistering pace, looped wide into the lane and ran away by more than five lengths. Visually impressive. There is less speed in this N1X sprint, which probably means ‘NILE will be positioned closer to the front. She can win right back.

INSTANT REFLEX is good enough, if she transfers her turf form to the main track. She finished third last out in a G3 turf sprint, after breaking slowly. With a clean takeoff in her first try on dirt, the lightly raced (three starts) filly might be the one to catch. MARLEY’S FREEDOM missed by only a neck last out in a similar N1X sprint. She was ridden her last two starts by Kent Desormeaux, who opts for the top choice. AVICI is a multiple winner at this condition; entered for the $40k optional tag.

SEVENTH RACE

PANTSONFIRE put it all together last out with a sharp maiden score in a “live” race at Santa Anita. If she runs two alike moving to the Del Mar turf she can make it back to back. The improving Irish-bred ran each successive quarter-mile faster than the previous in her maiden win (23.99, 23.81, 23.62 and 23.24). That style fits the closers-friendly profile of this course. Her maiden win was somewhat validated when the fourth- and ninth-place finishers returned to win. DOMINATING WOMAN accomplished a difficult feat last out. That is, win a turf route by leading gate to wire. Through Thursday, only one other turf route this meet was won by the pacesetter. The win by ‘WOMAN was a N1X vs. older; she actually drops in class into a N1X/optional $80k claiming race for 3yo fillies while entered for the claim tag. If she can ration her speed again, she figures as a contender with a front-running/pressing trip. TWEETING was the beaten favorite in the race won by ‘WOMAN. Blinkers are on, she won on this course in summer. She might be better than shown. PISTOL PACKIN ROSE returns to what seems to be her preferred course.

EIGHTH RACE

In a wide-open stakes race for California-bred sprinters, EDWARDS GOING LEFT gets the call returning to the Del Mar surface on which he ran so well during the summer meet (allowance win, tough-trip third). ‘LEFT continued to post fast workouts following his recent N2X win at Santa Anita; he should get a good trip stalking/pressing the pace from the outside. JIMMY BOUNCER finished second last out in a Cal-bred stakes at Fresno, the same race three others in this field exit. ‘BOUNCER pressed the pace, made the lead into the lane, but lugged in the length of the lane and ultimately got collared by a closer. If he had run straight, ‘BOUNCER probably could have won. If he can run two alike, and keep a straight path in the lane, the 8-for-18 pro is fast enough to win a race like this.

SOLID WAGER will be rolling late in a race that would set up for this closing style. His stablemate PRIME ISSUE is the speed of the speed and will take them as far as he can. GREEN WITH EDDIE adds speed, and SMOKEY IMAGE once was good enough.

NINTH RACE

Tough to trust a 5yo maiden, particularly one with 10 starts such as BOLD PAPA. Yet, he is the one to beat in this Calbred maiden turf route. He has been knocking on the door, in the money three straight including a runner-up finish last out that was validated Thursday when winner Well Developed returned to win a Cal-bred allowance. This field has plenty of pace, which flatters the closing style of BOLD PAPA. Perhaps he can wear them down, finally. CATFISH HUNTER stretches out and drops in class after a troubled fifth in a sprint vs. open company. Runner-up two back against Calbred maidens, his only previous turf route was a creditable runner-up try early this year. He has speed but does not require the lead, and could get a good trip positioned right behind the pace. SCHOOLEY was compromised by a fast pace last out in a sprint. He dueled and cracked. He gets a beneficial rider switch to Flavien Prat for his first try around two turns. He has a winning chance if able to ration his speed.