ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, CONGRUITY

FIRST RACE

IWISHIRISH one of two off the claim for Diodoro (first off the claim, dirt sprints, NYRA: 10 for 24, 42%, $2.75 ROI), and while her new stablemate has speed and some faster figs, this one gets Arroyo, who has been the go-to rider, and she may be able to work out the right trip away from a pace that has potential to heat up a bit. OUR WHIM raced wide and finished gamely after MSW dropper For Honor to be second-best in her return from a six-month layoff, and she earned a new top figure in the process; has hit the board in all four starts at this level. LEAH’S DREAM posted lone win to date in front-running fashion in the slop; faced tougher in her next two starts, then chased Lady Bergen to no avail at this level last time, and that rival came back to defeat allowance rivals with an 80 Beyer in her next start.

SECOND RACE

SALTY SMILE has yet to make much of an impact out there but like her switching back to dirt for Rudy (she has no turf pedigree) and thought she ran well enough in her first two starts, which came in a couple of pretty tough races; class drop doesn’t hurt. MISSIMPABIG EXPENSEopping and doing so out of a very tough race which featured a sharp winner firster, and where she was chasing the talented Miss Hot Stones (returned to win by 7 with a 74 Beyer) on the pace; has yet to find much of a finish out there, so would worry a bit about the 6.5 furlongs, but she is the horse to beat. CLASSY CARA, out of a dam whose first seven foals are all multiple winners, three of them with earnings over six-figures, and ORCHID PARTY, a half to No Hayne No Gayne, are the most interesting firsters.

THIRD RACE

NEWPORT BREEZE one of five also-rans from the Maid of the Mist back in this spot, and while she gave way in the stretch of that race, she had her hand forced a bit by her inside draw and wound up dueling the pace around the turn before she tired; one more chance on the turn back. MISS MYSTIQUE also turning back out of that race, where she was conservatively ridden at the back after a slow start, and raced on well to pick up a piece in the stretch without threat; plenty of pace signed on here to set up her run. TAYLER’S THE BOSS doesn’t necessarily fit the pace dynamic of this race, but she is drawn well, is a lightly-raced new face, and she looked okay winning that race last time over a rival who has turned out to be pretty good. Obviously PURE SILVER can win, and the turn back is a plus for her, but she was alarmingly bad in that last one.

FOURTH RACE

KRAMPUS dropped off the layoff for his second start after having a bit if a trip in his debut, but he looked good winning that race, and he came back with an even better performance to gun down a loose pace-setter last time; steps up. RAPT’s 1 for 7 record so far this year belies the improvement he has shown, as he has held his own in some pretty tough spots, and has had some trouble along the way; running style often works against him, but he will be running late. BUSINESS EXPENSE was given a terrific ride from an outside post in his career debut upstate, and he didn’t face a strong field in that race, but even accounting for those things he looked pretty good winning that race with a strong finish once working his way clear in the stretch; not sure where he’s been in the 93 days since that race, though soon to be 5yo obviously has some issues with just the one start behind him, and he appears to have some talent.

FIFTH RACE

PROMISE ME ROSES was slow from the gate before doing some chasing and then tiring in the stretch vs. a solid field of MSW rivals first time

out; has the rail again, but drops for trainer who is 3 for his last 9 dropping MSW-to-maiden claimer with second-time starters on dirt ($4.02 ROI).

MY ROXY GIRL has had her chances already, and doubt it gets any better for her from here, but she enters with the best form. THIRSTY BIRD debuting for Pletcher, so will expect that she shows up as ready as she can be, but this isn’t exactly a strong move him, and don’t love seeing the turf work last month.

SIXTH RACE

PUPAREE may be a bit of a question mark going six, but her lone try at the distance came over yielding turn in a race that did not set up well for closers, and her effort over seven furlongs last time was a good one while making a wide run around the turn from last; will try her in lieu of any of the six exiting that 10/22 race for the level. LOUISIANA LADY needs a scratch to get in after finally breaking through last time at a big price, but she fits well here right back and has run well over this turf course in all three starts. HIGH JINGO was the pace-setter in that 10/22 race and she was still there late before just failing to last for the second straight time; that race did go to closers at the end, though not sure she really had much of an excuse there.

SEVENTH RACE EIGHTH RACE

FUNTASTIC two for three since switching to grass, and he has a big trip in that loss two back when all jammed up in stretch traffic and unable to get a run; prevailed narrowly, but he appeared to win easier than the margin indicates after getting the room he needed inside late. Class relief may be key for SECRETARY AT WAR, who just doesn’t quite match up with the better horses in this division, especially going longer, and his speed plays in this field; like that he has a quality win over this turf course already. FUEL THE BERN returned to turf last time with fresh lasix and was dominant, even when taking the class drop into account; scratched from a starter allowance race earlier this month, apparently to await this spot for his new connections. Like SMALL BEAR as a horse, and his turf form is okay, though I still think he might be better on the main track.

NINTH RACE

ACTRESS posted lone win with the best of it into a meltdown race over a sloppy track, but she backed that race up quite well in the Delaware Oaks and has faced much better in her two starts since; don’t love her, but will give her one more chance getting class relief here with new blinkers. MISS SKY WARRIOR the one to catch and beat making second start off the layoff after going fast on the lead vs. older horses in the Turnback the Alarm last month; three for three over this track, two of those races over this distance, and all of them in graded stakes. ANALYZE the most interesting longshot, as she is getting better with every start, gets distance, and has the right running style; she’s just a little slow on the way in here, and it’s not like she is that lightly-raced.

TENTH RACE

CONGRUITY figures tough getting this class drop for Chad, and he is going to be very hard to beat if he can run something like the race he came up with two starts back when setting a fast pace and just getting closed down late; gets a pass for that last one vs. the impressive Analyze It. MICHAEL WONDERFUL never threatened in his turf debut last time, but he was pretty far back off the pace there before racing on well late without threat; drops a bit looking to do better. RIDE TO THE SUNSET debuting for an underrated trainer, and while Caleb’s Posse may not turn out to be much of a turf influence, this horse is a half to Get Jets, and there is plenty of turf on the dam side.