ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, CHICAGO STYLE

FIRST RACE

The sixth-place sprint debut by FENGARI appeared to be merely a prep for two turns. The 2yo son of BC Mile winner Artie Schiller stretches to a mile for his second start, and is likely to improve a ton with a race under his belt. He did race greenly through the lane (lugged in) in his sprint, like a colt that will run a lot better second out. The challenge is stretching out following just a single sprint. Meanwhile, FALCONE already has three route races under his belt including runner-up finishes at Golden Gate and a $100k maiden-claiming race at Del Mar. Each start has been better than the one before; he could be ready for the stronger company in this Del Mar maiden special-weight. COSA NOSTRA makes his U.S. debut after finishing in the money five of seven starts in England. He has faced winners, ran well, and should be rolling late over a course that is generally kind to late speed.

SECOND RACE

In a perplexing sprint for 3yo claiming fillies, the tepid choice hails from the hottest stable. Trainer Peter Miller entered closing week having won 16 races from 49 starters, a 32-percent win rate. He entered dropper VELVET JONES, second start following a layoff and dropping from starter allowance to $20k claiming while returning to dirt. Her only win was on this racetrack in 2016; there is enough speed to flatter her closing rally. BESIDES THE POINT, a four-time winner, ran well both recent starts (third, first) in races open to older fillies and mares. Her speed figures are appropriate for this age-restricted claiming race. YALISHA ships in from Louisiana for her California debut for the Desormeaux brothers. She has been racing primarily on turf, but ran well early this year on dirt at Delta Downs. POMP AND PARTY and DANGEROUSLY CLOSE add speed. This race is tough.

THIRD RACE

COUNT ALEXANDER has an excuse for finishing next-to-last his last start. He was saving ground in the turf sprint stakes, ran into a roadblock, had nowhere to go, and was eliminated. It was a tossout race by the Scat Daddy 2yo. Now three weeks later, he drops to N1X, and meets a field with pace to flatter his kick. With a clean trip, he can win from behind. However, he will must catch the impressive front-running maiden winner FACTOROFWON, a turf-bred colt who switched to grass and dominated a sprint at Santa Anita. He set a fast pace, opened up and was gone. He has had time between starts, stays on grass and will battle up front. The challenge is course profile. Turf sprints were kind to speed the past two weeks, but the temporary rails were at 18 feet and 24 feet. The rails are moved to 6 feet for this card, which theoretically makes the course less conducive to speed. TEXAS WEDGE is quick, and will keep the pace honest. Turf should be okay, based on his pedigree. CANDY CREW also tries a surface switch to grass, which could benefit. He was sired by Twirling Candy, whose progeny have won 20 percent of turf starts.

FOURTH RACE

CAPTIVATE ran a winning race early last month in his first around two turns. He chased a fast pace, finished second, and was the only front-runner to stick around. The one-three finishers rallied from the back of the field; the pace rival he put away (Thorpe d’Oro) returned to win his next start. The point is, CAPTIVATE ran well in defeat and returns in another maiden route that has less speed. It’s his race to win with a front-running or pace-pressing trip. ZIPMAN goes long for the first time, while returning to the surface (dirt) on which he ran his best race. His pedigree and running style suggest two turns is the right trip. This is his fourth start. HOLLYWOOD STRIKE is a 10-start maiden that will be rolling late; CALIFORNIA STREET finished behind the top choice last out, but it returned to train exceptionally well. The lightly raced (two starts) colt has upside.

FIFTH RACE

Runner-up in back-to-back maiden turf routes, BIG BUZZ is the horse to beat. He is not invincible, however. The four-start maiden had a perfect trip last out, the length of the stretch to get past the leader, and finished second. JUNGLE WARFARE is a five-start maiden that finished in the money each time. He finished second last out behind Inscom,

expected to be among the favorites in a Grade 3 here Sunday. RIVER BOYNE is the stranger danger. The European invader faces meets a modest field of locals. ESKIMO ROSES goes long for the first time. The sprinter will take the field as far as he can.

SIXTH RACE

CLEAR THE MINE and RED LIGHTNING are alternatives to potential favorite SPECTRE BOND, who would be tough to beat if he reproduces the tripledigit Beyer he earned first out. CLEAR THE MINE won two allowance races in Kentucky; he makes his California debut in this N1X while entered for the optional $40k claim tag. He worked a bullet half-mile six days ago at Del Mar, gets a top rider and should come out firing. RED LIGHTNING won a highly rated maiden race here in summer, then misfired next time when he broke slow from the rail, rushed and cracked. Freshened since, reunited with the jockey that rode him to his maiden win, he should deliver a top effort first start since early September. SPECTRE BOND could go favored based on the 100 Beyer he earned first out. Trouble is, that race was five months ago on a different circuit. The horse he beat (Mr. Crow) returned to win twice, but there is no guarantee ‘BOND will reproduce his months-old debut while shipping in. He is a 4yo making just the second start of his career. He can win, but his odds will be lower than fair.

SEVENTH RACE

CHICAGO STYLE returns to the course on which he scored impressive wins in back-to-back allowance marathons in summer. The 5-for-7 gelding finished a creditable fifth last out in a G2 at Santa Anita; he was freshened since to aim specifically to this race, and stretches back to his preferred marathon trip. MANITOULIN ran better last time at Keeneland than the seventh-place finish position suggests. He broke slowly, was four-wide into the final turn, five-wide through the final turn, and eight-wide into the lane. Despite the ground loss, he lost by “only” seven and a half lengths. Under the circumstances, it was a sharp effort. Since being gelded, he has three wins and a second from six starts. FLAMBOYANT, a graded winner, finished a close third in a G2 marathon here in summer. He packs 124-pound top weight, and will roll from behind.

EIGHTH RACE

SUPER DUPER COOPER was four-wide start to finish last out; the ground loss cost him the victory. He finished second while more than four lengths clear of third. He shortens from one mile to seven furlongs, and can win this maiden-20 with a better trip. BARDSTOWN finished second last out in his first try at this level, while INHIBITION also finished second against similar while more than five lengths clear of third. PSYCHEDELICAT is an 11-start maiden that will get there someday. 2260 Jimmy Durante Blvd. Del Mar, CA 92014 (858) 755-1141 Main track: One Mile, oval. Turf course: Seven eighths mile. Distance from last turn to finish line: 919 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ WPS - 15.43% ■ Double - 20% ■ Exacta, Quinella - 22.68% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6 - 23.68% ■ Pick 5 - 14%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.