ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, SILVER SHAKER

FIRST RACE

NOMINAL DOLLARS did okay as a closing sprinter for most of the summer but he is likely better with a little more distance underneath him, though he does need at least a little pace to help him out; had plenty of pace in that last one and did his best with it, but he was facing better horses there, and think this spot is easier despite the higher price tag. CONQUEST BIGLUCK E the horse to beat, and in fact is unlikely to lose if he can run his best race; that is in some question as he cuts in half for his first start off the claim following a 77-day layoff, and while he won three of four at Oaklawn with solid figures earlier this year, he has since lost four in a row, three of them as the favorite. TRY FLYING back to NY and back up in class after easily handling $10k claimers from off the pace at Parx; has won last two one-turn miles in NY, including game grinding win at Belmont in September. LYRICAL MIRACLE never wins, but he has been racing in acceptable form lately while concentrating on sprints, and worth pointing out that each of his last two wins (they were a while ago) came in one-turn miles where he was able to keep close to the pace.

SECOND RACE

NEWS ANCHOR is not going to get many more chances, but he is 0-3 to start with excuses to be had; did reach even terms with winner who had the jump on him last time, and he may have hung in that race, but will take him one more time. WORK OF ART tried dirt to no avail last time but liked his debut over turf where he was gamely closing ground late in a race that was dominated up on the lead; tough post for two-turn debut. PERFECTEXPECTATION ran well when finishing ahead of a troubled NEWS ANCHOR in his turf debut, and he ran the third-best race last time despite finishing 4th after making a solid wide run around the turn. SMOOTH MOVE debuting in that pace-dominated race behind WORK OF ART, where he was off slow and outrun before making a bit of a run through the stretch without threat; Linda much better with maidens after a race, and while most of that second-out success has come on dirt, she is also okay on turf, at least with 2yos (5 for last 18, 28%, $2.34 ROI).

THIRD RACE

BRANCATO a bit of a guess as a total unknown on dirt, but this is the right kind of field to try it for the first time, and her speed could play well on the main track; Cannizzo won for this owner with Derval on Wednesday at 10/1, a horse who was also 2nd off the trainer change from O’ Connell after a non-competitive running line in his first NY start. MICOZZI showed speed and was outfinished by ARCHIVAL last time, but that was his first start back from a layoff and he is eligible to be a bit tighter for this; Gullo excellent off the claim with dirt sprinters (past 2 years, 13 for 45, 29%, $3.09 ROI). ARCHIVAL already cleared this condition back in September, but he was disqualified after being carelessly handled in the stretch and causing a spill; don’t think I’d want him as the favorite, but he can win.

FOURTH RACE

FAVORABLE OUTCOME was outfinished late by HARLAN PUNCH when they faced each other at Belmont in September, but considering that was FAVORABLE OUTCOME’s first start back from a long layoff, and that he went first to wrest control of that race before the stretch, he may have run every bit as well as the 1-2 finishers in that race; rail draw isn’t ideal, but will give him one more chance. HARLAN PUNCH had the better trip in some ways when finishing ahead of the top one, but that takes nothing away from what was another solid performance from this horse since being claimed by Jacobson; tough once again if he can keep it going. SKYLER’S SCRAMJET pulled off a surprise last time at 30:1, but that race didn’t exactly come out of nowhere for gelding who was impressive winning his career debut with a figure, and he chased that fast pace all the way in that upset win last time; now 2 for 2 for Nevin and his speed plays in this field.

FIFTH RACE

SILVER SHAKER has improved in every start for Chad and she did well to close ground into a race

that didn’t feature much pace in her first start with other winners last time; beat nothing but she was impressive when running over that field two starts back. PALINODIE rebounded to a better effort second time out this year to just miss ahead of SILVER SHAKER last time, though she got right there on even terms in the stretch before missing at the end; liked her stateside debut last fall in the Long Island and she gets extra credit for running that race at Aqueduct, though this race will be on the new outer course. CHURCH SOCIAL keeps running well without winning, a run that includes her most recent start where she may have went a bit too early with her wide run to contention; she’s another with a good race over Aqueduct turf.

SIXTH RACE

PURE QUALITY has some pedigree as a Stormy Atlantic half to the good sprinter Noholdingbackbear (best on synthetic), as well as three other winners, two of them winners on turf, from a dam who is a sister to Saskawea (also by Stormy Atlantic) who won multiple stakes on grass; new trainer making a positive impression from limited starters so far, and he is 3 for 11 with first time starters, including a win in a turf route. HOKULEA has no speed and was outrun in his career debut sprinting on dirt; switches right over to grass for trainer who improves them through racing, and he gets lasix this time. MR. PRESIDENT improved in his turf debut last time, though he had a nice trip in that race and never looked like he was going to win; may not have to do much better in this race and he is perfectly drawn.

SEVENTH RACE

MR. PETE was trying the mile for the first time in the Sleepy Hollow, and he did not run poorly at all while chasing that fast pace, though he was never a threat to win; needs to start running faster figures, but he’s underrated and better turning back, and there is pace in this race to give him a chance. STONEY BENNETT got bet first time out and he was impressive wiring that field with good speed and a 78 Beyer, though there were no closers in that race; turns back from a nice outside post after stretching out to the mile for his second start, where he wound up contesting a fast pace all the way before tiring late. WE SHOULD TALK is like STONEY BENNETT in that he was impressive winning first time out sprinting with a 78 Beyer, before trying the Sleepy Hollow, where he was off the pace, and failing to impact; turn back helps, and he should have some pace to run at in here.

EIGHTH RACE

STORMY VICTORIA has proven herself to be at her best sprinting on turf, something that was confirmed in that dominant win two starts back over this distance; forget that last one on synthetic, though it’s understandable why they tried it. FIRST OF SPRING arrived from France with solid sprint form, and she was also impressive last time while closing that field down through the stretch, and doing so over this course; steps right up. RUMBLE DOLL needs pace to run at, and she faces a couple of fellow strong closers in the form of the top two, but she is underrated, had gotten back to her best in her last two races and will be a price. Not sure about ABBREVIATE cutting back to sprint, but she has impressed nd in pair of facile wins since starting back from the layoff.

NINTH RACE

EMILIANA’S HOPE was no factor when stepped up to face better last time, but her effort at this level two back was strong while making a wide run around horses through the turn to take over the lead, only to tire late; contends here at a price if just running as well, and she has performed over this course in the past. WISH UPON had a good trip but was no match for the sharp War Canoe at this level last time; in form now and her tactical speed plays well in this field. CARRY YOUR HEELS ran well dropping out of some tougher spots two starts back with a competitive figure, and she is another who projects to pull a trip in this race as she drops again, this time to face two-life claimers.