ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, RANSACK

FIRST RACE

If he breaks, JAKE THE BAND MAN should be loose on the lead, and speed in the first race, an old FG staple, has been in play again this season. Lost for a $12.5K tag this course and distance in career debut, but ran into a sharp winner that day while far clear of the third horse and appears to meet no such foe here. Homebred First-timer HEISAYANKEE shows only three works, but they’re lively, and he might have the speed to be on or near a modest pace. ROCKIN RUSTY RUE drops and might fit, but who knows since his two races were routes.

SECOND RACE

Guessing BACK PAGE STAR is favored here, not second choice. She’s got a win over the course, the sort of forward style that was effective on turf last racing week, and just qualifies for the “nonwinners-since” condition that lets her into this race. HARBOR JEDI won well enough on LaD turf two back and is 3-0-2-1 on FG lawn, but have her here mainly as a dirt back-up to the top pick. My second choice on turf would be QUEENOFTHEPALACE, whose sliding form is followed by a claimand-drop situation now.

THIRD RACE

Homebred HALF WAY UP didn’t do a whole lot wrong settling and finishing solidly for third of eight making career debut in a Delta La-bred MSW. Don’t mind the second-out drop for $20K from horse almost 4 still seeking first win, and theoretically the longer FG stretch should help her. CHARZEE BABY’s two races from January include a sloppy-track debut, then a start in an La-bred FG MSW well above par for the level. Work pattern not ideal but she could be well meant on drop following layoff. HELEN WHEELS’s three starts came in SoCal open MSWs, and while there’s no doubt she’s on a serious class drop here, it’s a little concerning she didn’t get even one look in an La-bred MSW. Could prefer turf, as well. DANCE TILL TWO beaten favorite in her last four starts. Could be going for five.

FOURTH RACE

DIXIE BREES’s lone previous turf try produced a better-than-it-looks sixth over the FG course, and though one would be more confident in her dirt ability, think she could be all right on grass. Comeback run in DED stakes has strong look of practice race for this class drop. REINE DES ANIMAUX probably ran well enough in the Si Cima to contend here, but she’s back on relatively short rest and is not exactly the most reliable win type. SMILEY BRILEY doesn’t look quite good enough on paper, but the barn can do no wrong early this meet.

FIFTH RACE

OFF CYCLE has an eye-catching 6-4-1 record from 13 Fair Ground starts, and wouldn’t need a return to her very best to factor for this $10K claiming price. Race shape, on paper at least, shakes out in her favor. I’d ignore the barn’s slow start at the meet since none of their starters has looked close to as live as this horse. KINGSTON TERRACE shows only turf races in recent history but actually won the last time she raced on dirt and has a solid FG main-track record. She’s fresh and seemingly spotted for action. D J SOUL SISTA did the Delta-Fair Grounds move last February and won an La-bred allowance race at 50/1. She could be set to improve and seems favorably drawn outside the other speed.

SIXTH RACE

RANSACK claimed out of his last for $16K and entered right back for $25K, which seems especially positive since the Cox barn from most recent good-sized sample is 36% off the claim. Two dirt runs and a start over yielding Kentucky Downs

course three back obscures generally competitive turf form. Hope here is In the Chamber crosses and clears, and this horse comes up to sit second or third just off the leader. WOODMANS LUCK is all right on turf but would be the pick for dirt should we come to that. Grindy type might prefer longer distances. MR. TICKLE won over this course in January, and at something like morning-line odds would be a decent bet to improve on his recent form.

SEVENTH RACE

Would hope to get something more than the published odds on WYNN TIME, which does seem possible, since his two wins have come in Illinoisbred races and he’s now facing stronger open competition. That said, have been very impressed with the raw talent (on two very different surfaces, as well) and think homebred could have still more to give. Hard to see how ZIPP ON BY is as high as 5//1 with very good form running through the super-talented C Z Rocket and a cut-back to what looks like a better distance. HOLD ME BLACK would be an underlay at the published 5/2 price. Does seem to have made some minor improvement the last several starts, and the outside draw could be a plus.

EIGHTH RACE

OLE SKIP ROPE won this race last Jan. 14 at FG and promptly went over the top, though his form did rebound during the summer. Don’t have a big problem with the comeback for a relatively low $12.5K tag considering he’s been in for this price before and is a bargain auction buy with plenty of cash already in the bank for these connections. Granted, it came at EvD, but ZENDELPHIAN has some competitive turf form way back in his form, and he’d probably be all right on dirt if this were to be rained onto the main. Not sure how we came up with 4/1 on NINETY ONE ASSAULT - suspect he’s more in the 8/5 range as a horse with solid open maiden form from NY trying La-breds for the first time. Does seem like the type to run to the level of competition, and with a really poor draw on top of the expected short price, will stand against while acknowledging how well he seems to fit.

NINTH RACE

Looks on paper like the front end will be fast / contested enough to create late-race inefficiency from the speed. The closer that looks best from here is ARGUMENTALLY ELLE, who has turned in respectable performances in all four of her starts. The first three of those came around two turns, but the way she rallied last time sprinting at EVD nd suggest she could be best as a one-run closing sprinter. Pretty much every horse the Stall barn has sent so far this meet has run to form, and wouldn’t expect that to change with SHARP HENNY. Back from long break with tempered expectations (in form of $12.5K tag) and will be part of the pace at distance longer than ideal and almost certainly at a price much shorter than her morning line. STACKOLEENA has a second and third from her two FG starts and fits the spot better than most.