ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, FOREVER DAISY

FIRST RACE

No one to trust in the opener for two-life claimers, but will cast my lot with DRIVEN WEST who was last seen tiring over a two-turn mile at Parx off a layoff; wasn’t effective in lone try sprinting for Jason Servis, but that race came in a fast-paced race vs. much, much better horses. Suppose MUTARAAMY will just win if he somehow finds a way to show up with his best race off another layoff, but his overall form leaves plenty to be desired after a promising start, and do not like the way he has struggled to finish his races. LIGHTNING BUZZ 0-6 at this level so far this year after breaking his maiden in his lone 2016 start, but he has been racing competitively right along; has some trouble at the top of the stretch last time, though how much it cost him is debatable. ARCHIVAL wheeling back quickly after breaking his maiden easily here last Sunday with a 65 Beyer; not impossible, and WHITE MISSILE has speed from the rail, but his dirt form leaves plenty to be desired.

SECOND RACE

UNCLE SIGH always has some passing to do in the stretch, and he often finds one or two that he can’t get to at the end, but he has fired consistently since getting to turf and he projects to have some pace in front of him this time, assuming this field stays intact; re-claimed by Duggan, for whom he won a similar race in August while also paired with this rider. IRON POWER going good right now for a hot trainer, and he was unlucky last time after getting bumped into a stumble at the start, which forced him to make a long wide run and eventually left him vulnerable to a fresh and ground-saving With Exultation late; needs to break. CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD was disappointing last time when showing up with new front wraps on a class drop, even if he did lay down a solid pace in that race; drops again as turf racing comes to an end and should be sending early. WITH EXULTATION did take advantage to get it done at this level last time, but his overall form makes him a contender right back, and he is perfectly drawn once again in a race with some pace.

THIRD RACE

Not exactly thrilled with the series on close runner-up finishes from BLUGRASCAT’S SMILE smile during this latest form cycle, but it’s not like he ran poorly in any of those races, and he ships in here after dominating that field right up close to the pace last time; don’t want anyone else in here. STORM PROPHET got bet hard in his return to dirt last time, and while he finished well after coming wide to be 2nd to a front-running winner, it was also more of the same for a horse who likes to finish 2nd; doesn’t project to have that much pace to run ta here. Thought THE CARETAKER ran some nice races at the beginning of his career, including initial route try where he was always wide against a strong rail, but he appears to have completely lost his form since returning from the layoff; turf to dirt with a little speed looking to find himself again.

FOURTH RACE

FOREVER DAISY bred for turf, but she was left in to chase the pace in sloppy off-the-turf race first time out, and that trip didn’t work out for her last time as she got shuffled exiting the turn and found herself quickly out of contention; has some speed from a good post for second turf try. TIZENGAGINGLYSMART had no chance in her debut behind a sharp winner, but she did her best in that spot and she came right back to improve a bit in a race where the top two finishers got the jump on her out in the clear. DANCINGWITHPAYNTER a new face looking to bring out of town form to NY, but she has run well in both turf starts since switched over, including that last one where she got clear and stayed gamely to deep stretch; has been defeated by good-looking winners in both of those turf starts. UNION PATRIOT trailed early and then appeared to be getting in through the stretch after gaining some ground first time out; eligible to improve quickly, though don’t love Union Rags as a turf sire.

FIFTH RACE

JUMP RULER may have found the right field as the lone first-time starter in a race where the top dirt Beyer is a 46. Filly is a half to seven prior winners from her stakes-winning dam, and Roman Ruler is an excellent early sire. DREAM FEVER back to dirt and back down in class after failing to impact MSW horses on turf last time; had speed first time out but was no match for an experienced rival in the stretch while finishing well clear of the others in that field. TONI ROX rallied for a distant 3rd behind a sharp debut winner at this level last time, after finishing well behind DREAM FEVER in her debut; has lacked gate speed so far, which is going to make things tough on her going forward. LILLARD HALL may not be able to run all that much, but she was eliminated on the backstretch last time when put in tight and clipping heels and may rate another chance.

SIXTH RACE

CHINA RIDER has always had the look of a midpack-closing sprinter, and she is finally getting the chance to do it on turf, where she came through with a solid win with a new top figure over this trip two starts back; got the wrong ride when put on the chase right from the start in that off-the-turf race last time, but she still finished gamely to get 2nd from an odds-on favorite, and she should be able to relax early in this race, which should have a competitive pace. FLY BY faces a tough task turning back to sprint for the first time on turf, but not ready to give up on her yet, even after failing to beat a horse home in each of her last two starts (one a graded stake and the other a paceless race where she was strongly held up early and then wide around the turn); first two starts were both good, and she may come running late in this race. SISTER SOPHIA another looking to close late in a race that may set up well for her style; solid win last time to clear her NY-bred conditions while cycling back to her top figure, and now steps up for third start back. NISHA tough if managing to reproduce 88 Beyer earned for victorious turf sprint debut last time, though she did get loose on the lead in that race; up off the claim.

SEVENTH RACE

CATCH A CAB has improved without winning on turf in three starts as a 3yo, and he did have a tough trip last time while failing to find any room to run in the stretch; lone dirt start at two wasn’t a poor effort while working his way into contention at the top of the stretch before getting out-kicked, and he went away for a long time after that race, and Casse is strong with this move from a limited sample - past two years, maiden, turf to dirt and cutting back: 5 for 11, 45%, $2.99 ROI (5 for 8 in scheduled dirt races). VALIANT MAN ran well in both dirt starts early this year, including debut at a big price where he encountered real trouble at the start; ran fine starting back on turf last month in a race that could be looked at as a prep, though Donk is just 2 for 47 switching from turf to dirt in sprints over the past five years ($0.41 ROI). ZONIC looks like a good ML favorite to take a shot against if the line does manage to hold; not that he can’t win, but he has had his chances and it’s not like he is emerging with tons of excuses. BLEWITT an Uncle Mo firster for Pletcher without much pedigree on the dam side; Pletcher 3 for 23 over the past five years with older maidens debuting at Aqueduct ($1.39 ROI).

EIGHTH RACE

MR. BUFF had all the best of it on the lead last time, but that wasn’t the case two starts back when forced to do the dirty work on the pace and then holding on, and he keeps showing up with good races and is versatile in terms of distance and running style; out of NY-bred conditions now, but this open 1x did not come up nearly as tough as it could have. FOREST BLUE has run several figures which would make him tough here, but he did require a drop in class to start winning in California, and went back to coming up short when moved back up; raced on for second-best in NY debut, but he was never winning that race. WESTWOOD compromised his own chances in first two starts by breaking slowly, but that was not the case last time when getting to lead right from the gates and taking maidens wire to wire; no reason well-bred gelding can’t step up again. Interesting so see VIA EGNATIA getting another chance on dirt after that stateside debut where he showed nothing behind the fleet Takaful; certainly bred to handle this surface.

NINTH RACE

GIO D’ORO figures tough in his second start after earning a Beyer above par for the level when falling just short of subsequent stakes winner Sea Foam on debut; hard to go against here, unless one of the firsters looks live. Of those, both EMPIRE LINE and CURLIN’S LEGACY could potentially fit the bill. EMPIRE LINE brought $180k following a 10.1 breeze back in May and he debuts for a capable first-out trainer; unraced dam is a sister to the good turf filly Rushing Fall, as well as dirt stakes winner Milam. CURLIN’S LEGACY may want more distance down the line as a son of Curlin from the good route mare Spa City Princess; Englehart has had a nice year with his 2yos, and he has sent out seven debut winners so far in 2017.