ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, COFFEE CRUSH

FIRST RACE

PROFESSOR SNAPE holds no figure advantage on his two main rivals, DELTA OUTLAW and GUICK, in this spot, but he did win the draw and thought he ran well last time to put away an evens favorite on the pace before getting run down; prevailed only narrowly two back but that was another race where he got the best of a fight on the lead, against a better horse in Two Down One to Go, and posted a more clear-cut win that the margin suggests. DELTA OUTLAW has speed from the rail and is dangerous if he can make the lead. GUICK back down in class after getting in too tough off the claim following 2L win in October; don’t love the field he beat that day, and don’t like the way he was getting in all through the stretch, but he is clearly a good fit here.

SECOND RACE

COFFEE CRUSH has a big pedigree for a top trainer and thought she showed something to work on in her debut while green from the start, but racing on gamely from behind a slow pace at the end; threat to improve quickly at a decent price. BRATTATA is clearly the horse to beat as she drops out of Chelsey Flower where she was forced wide as the longshot winner was getting a perfect run through on the rail; also had enough trouble to be considered very unlucky two starts back where blocked in the stretch behind a slow pace. CELEBRITY GLITTER a work in progress still, but think she has shown enough in her first two starts to follow for a while; was hard to settle on the lead while being wrangled for no apparent reason last time, but that was a good field and see no reason why she wouldn’t be looking for the lead here from her outside post. BEYOND GRACE got bet to favoritism in a mess of a race that featured a couple of late scratches first time out, but she ran like a horse who may have needed a start while chasing from the rail and tiring in the stretch; think she benefits from this added distance and her dam is a sister to the good turf horse Lotus Pool.

THIRD RACE

WARRIOR OF LIGHT one of five firsters in this field of six, all of them with something to recommend. She is by a sire who has been a solid early influence, and she is a half-sister to the multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter By the Moon, who also races for these connections; Nevin has had only four 2yo debut winners over the past five years (from just 37 starts in dirt sprints), but they were all prices, including the aforementioned By the Moon who scored at Saratoga at 6/1 odds. LEZENDARY owns valuable experience on her five rivals, and she has actually run well in both of her starts to date without winning; chased a good winner to no avail last time after getting bumped at the start. DREAM PAULINE by Tapit and out of the fleet Dream Rush, who won multiple Grade 1s sprinting on dirt, and has dropped two stakes winners so far, including the Grade 1-winning 2yo Dreaming of Julia, who won her debut by 10; appeared to be preparing for a Saratoga debut before missing some time over the summer. MO WINE debuts for Pletcher (11 for 31 with 2yo first time starters in dirt sprints at AQU over the past five years, $2.55 ROI, and 4 for 9 in that sample so in 2017); dam went 12 for 12 in her native Panama, but finished last in her only start in the states.

FOURTH RACE

Will try ST. PATRICK FROST at a price as he gets maiden claimers and lasix, both for the first time on dirt in his career; better horses or not, can’t really like him off of his most recent dirt start where he chased wide and tired, but an effort more like his career debut would give him a look here, as he was bumped to the back at the start and actually made ground over that speed-favoring track on Wood Day. BAREFOOT ANGEL looks like the horse to beat here after surviving a pace duel

before ultimately settling for 3rd last time, which was her first start back from a long layoff; lasix on.

CAVALLOTTO did no running in her career debut on turf and then went directly back to the drawing board; may not be able to run at all, but she has way more pedigree on the dam-side for dirt than she does for turf. PENCE contends if he can transfer his turf form to dirt, but that’s not a given and he has been a disappointment on that surface.

FIFTH RACE

BARTLEBY broke his maiden after switching to turf this year, but he didn’t necessarily improve all that much on that surface, and his two one-turn miles on dirt are among the best races he has run in his career; last main track start better than it looks as he was forced to come around wide to the stretch over a track that was strongly favoring the inside. BORSA VENTO isn’t easy to trust with in-and-out form, and even his good races haven’t been that good, but he is still dangerous off the claim for Rudy; three routes to date all resulted in a Beyer decline, but they were also vs. better horses. ONE OF A KIND switching from tur to dirt and getting class relief for a top trainer, which is enough in this field; needs some pace, but there are stretch out sprinters in this field.

SIXTH RACE

POCKET CHANGE interesting switching directly to turf for a dangerous trainer after a pretty impressive main track debut, and Servis seems intent to switch him over, as he has him entered in a tougher race going long on grass on a canceled card last month; bit of a guess, but he has enough pedigree and looked good winning that first one. MINI MILES shipped down from Canada with solid form and he dominated a field of maidens over this distance right on the front end; looks like he’ll have a tougher time on the lead in this spot, but he handled pressure gamely at Woodbine. YUMMY BEAR has improved noticeably this year while continuing to rise in class, and he just missed an unlucky bob in this condition last time, though he had no real excuse in that race.

SEVENTH RACE

WAR CANOE steps up to try her available condition for the first time, but she has never been better than she is right now, and she will beat this field if she can repeat that last one, which was a powerful win over course and distance with a new top figure. HARDLY MATE also stepping into the allowance ranks while in form; easily rolled over maiden claimers in her second turf start for this trainer, and she put in a nice run while wide around the turn in that last one before flattening out behind a pair of rivals who both ride the inside. PINCHBECK has had her chances and keeps coming up short without excuse at this level, but she contends here with her typical race, and do like that she has a win over this turf course.

EIGHTH RACE

IN THE LEE was game to win her career debut while chasing down an experienced favorite, and she then improved to post an easier win in her next turf start with fresh lasix; good try in tough Commonwealth Oaks last time vs. the talented Rymska. TARALENA hasn’t managed to get a 4yo campaign going, but she has ability and speed, and her win off the layoff this year, while down to a relatively close finish, was accomplished under strong handling over a couple of these rivals. AL HAYYAH will have to improve to win here, and she has been trouble prone in her career, but she can run late in this spot. ACHNAHA a contender with her best race but she never seems to win; been awhile since she was tried over a distance even this short.

NINTH RACE

FUEL THE BERN came back to turf for the first time since her career debut with a class drop in her second start off the layoff, and he dominated that field with a good figure; back down to more appropriate spit after taking a shot in stakes company nine days ago. CARIBBEAN a deeper closer looking for some pace to run at, but he ran very well last time to make up ground into a slow pace; new trainer dangerous off the claim with turf routers (14 for his last 30, 47%, $3.56 ROI). NOT IN CHARGE took advantage of a meltdown pace to defeat maidens in his NY debut, but he backed that race up pretty well last time even if he appeared to hang in that race, which was against better horses.