ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SAKAB

FIRST RACE

CONVEXITY ran last in his debut but it was two turns on the turf and that is a very tough spot for a debut. It didn’t help matters that this colt was off slow in said affair. The Sadler barn is 24% with their second time starters. They are 22% turf to dirt and show a flat bet profit. We spy a sibling that earned 355K. Let’s see if the class drop can wake this colt up. BIG AND LOUD did run well in his debut on this dirt. He never got a breather on the stretchout previously. His dam earned over 1.4mm routing (4-2-1-0). This is her first foal. OLD SCHOOL IKE might have figured things out if recent return try is any indication. He even bobbled at the break and broke last but still rallied for the place. Main knock is we’re none too sure about his route breeding but willing to trust BC star Peter Miller.

SECOND RACE

MAMA’S KID cuts back and switches surfaces but we still think her speed is still best. When afforded an early breather, she is just much better. We like the jock switch to Baze. Lone local start came in her debut where she reared at the start but still finished second. This filly needs a confidence boost after recent tries and we think Sal Gonzalez and found a good spot to do just that. TIGER MOM got some play off the layoff but ended up walked off. We see runners return from something like that and return well all the time. Go to jock gets a let up in Roman (21% jockey/trainer). FRACAS is your safe pick. Current form is very good and she won’t be too far off the early pace. The not so good news other than her chalkish price is that she has never run here and is stuck on the rail.

THIRD RACE

TEMPLAR shed the blinkers before the layoff and didn’t show his normal front speed. Plus, he was stuck between runners. Well, the blinkers return today and with it enough zip to clear this field. This gelding has won on this dirt before and draws inside while not stuck on the rail. Wire please. OMDURMAN has won 11 of 34 so hats off for that. Current form is excellent and he gets in light today. A good post to stalk the inside speed. GONE WITH IT just ran better and we don’t care that it was only going 870 yards. That was just an improved effort for a runner that has always liked this dirt (5-03-2).

FOURTH RACE

GIFT OF A STAR gets good race flow as the 2 and 7 are speed plus plus. We really like her return try three back as 7 panels off a long layoff is a tough spot yet this gal won at 7/2. Then she just missed on this dirt at today’s distance. Not sure a turf sprint is her best deal but she still ran decently down the dip before the short layoff. PRINCESS KENDRA won when last seen on this dirt and she didn’t even get that good a set up. That changes today if all stay in. This filly is often a good price. LITTLE BIT LOVELY is the inside speed and she probably holds the rail. Can she crack GOGOULA and secure some kind of a breather? She won the pace battle with that foe in their common race on the 13th but lost the war when tiring a tad to finish fourth but only beaten less than a length. TIKI BAR LOGIC might not care for this dirt but the sample size of two is small.

FIFTH RACE

SEA MY MOVES is the safe pick. She broke dead last in her debut but still rallied to beat a few home. She showed better speed in her second start but never got a breather and tired. Now she drops in class. One of two sibs went 16-2-3-1 for 71K. INSTINCTUAL KASH did beat over half the field home in her debut and it came here. That was a tough distance off the layoff at Del Mar. Jack Carava is 20% with new runners and shows a flat bet profit. Works are well spaced. BAYTOWN JULIET ran well on this dirt 3 and 4 back. She isn’t bred to like the grass so we can discount that turf try two back. Perhaps she didn’t care for routing in her most recent. Recent tries darken form and help today’s price. DEL MAR DARLING is by a 7% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. All 6 sibs won and 4 beat winners. The two best went 39-3-5-4 for

109K and 18-4-4-2 for 106K. YOU ARE INVITED is by a 12% debut sire. Her dam went 53-9-4-11 for 95K. This is dam’s first foal.

SIXTH RACE

SAKAB popped and stopped in his first two starts with one a local affair. He then took some time off and switched barns. Recent tries versus cheaper are much better and we especially like his maiden breaker. What if this guy clears off again? Connections find a logical spot for first time winners. We think H-cappers dismiss 870 tries and let this guy go on the tote. SHORT OF EZ could not have looked any better in his debut and that included a poor start. He was right there with a furlong to go in his most recent. Class drop looks like a winning one. SUPREME VENTURE is a solid sprinter that gets back to just that. Team Miller shows a flat bet profit route to sprint.

SEVENTH RACE

DANGERFIELD catches a race light on pace. He could find the front end and rather easily. We love this inside post and he has won on this dirt before. We love his work tab since his most recent. SENATOR ROBERT could get a trip like that one three back. That was a Beyer top in his most recent. Check out those prices of late. CAMINO DE ESTRELLA got good race flow last out but couldn’t close much at Del Mar. Maybe two turns is the key. This 3YO ran a Beyer top only three back and it came here. Now is the time of the year where 3YOs’ catch up to their older foes.

EIGHTH RACE

You can make a good case for more than a few in here and that means a good betting race. SHENANDOAH QUEEN raced at Mountaineer not that long ago and we think H-cappers will see those lines and disrespect her. She has never felt better and that was a real nice effort only two back at Del Mar when she upset a minor stakes race. She never looked comfortable at CD but still beat over half the field home. Win rider returns in Espinoza. Here comes a good to great stalking trip. MAJESTIC HEAT just likes to win so bonus points for that. Smith and Mandella are especially deadly on this dirt (2 for 2). Hard to fault her dirt debut previously. Still, the return to two turns is a plus. Race flow is fine. CHAMPAGNE ROOM is a proven Grade 1 runner facing Grade 2 foes. She draws well and has very good speed. She continues to work well. How much speed is CONSTELLATION going to show and how will that hurt this filly if they hook up early?

NINTH RACE

MAGICALCHIC ran evenly nd in her debut and now tries easier. Both sibs are full siblings and both beat winners. We like that recent bullet blow out. COOL MUNNINGS has some speed and draws inside. She gets in light and that should sharpen her speed that much more. There is some other speed in here but class drop makes her the one to beat. SILVER EPONA could show speed at a price. Once again, she draws outside. This is dam’s first foal.