ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, HE’S MUNNIE

FIRST RACE

OKAAD is just good. Horse for course hasn’t missed the exacta in his last five starts. All of those came with Scott Stevens at the helm. Good tries 2 and 3 back and those came from the rail which is today’s placement. The absolute one to beat. CECIL THE CAT might offer some value. Let’s say he needed that local start two back after shipping in from New Mexico. He tried for the front end on the grass last out but failed to get a breather and tired. This barn is 25% turf to dirt. HOW ABOUT HIM has speed. That was a solid try last out when first out for new barn. Second time this dirt is another plus. Main pace foe might be the 3.

SECOND RACE

AIKMAN JEWEL is a horse that we have always liked. This mare has won off a layoff before. Works are perfect and she has won from the rail before. LISTO is feeling great. Her recent Beyers are better than all. Form cycle hints at better. Main knock is her lack of speed. MAKAHA HEAT has speed. Cut back and surface switch are a bit dicey but this filly does drop in class. We like her local works. There just isn’t much pace in this race.

THIRD RACE

MOJUMBO has back class even if it came two layoffs ago. His return try four back was decent but then he showed little in his next three starts. This is only his second start with his new barn and they don’t waste any time finding him a local start. Works are well spaced. Here comes a huge price in a suspect field so why not. BIG TALL PAUL just ran better when first time on this dirt. We see this a lot. A simple repeat of his most recent would win this. MOOGIE WOOGIE is capable of a Beyer in the mid 60’s which fits here. He didn’t fire last out but he was shipping in from NoCal. New barn doesn’t claim many so maybe they saw something they liked.

FOURTH RACE

INTRINSIC faded in his debut versus better at Indiana but we can forgive anyone’s first start. That was a nice even try in his second start which was his first locally. He drops a notch today and gets away from the rail. Added half furlong is another plus. Race flow is fine. EXPECT THE MAN gets class relief today. The blinkers go ON for this former Asmussen runner. UNION FLYER might show some speed and figures a good price. Quarter horse trainer Fales is actually good with his rare T-bred runners. Speed is his main weapon and this gelding comes in fresh.

FIFTH RACE

GRANDPA’S INDY ran better second off the layoff and now gets another shot at this level but maybe as a bit more fit runner. A good draw for a stalking trip or does this guy want the front end? There just isn’t much pace in this race. ROJO BOU PEEP ran well the lone time he tried two turns and it came six back at Emerald. Here is another that gets a second shot at this level. DANCING ZAPPER will find the front end unless he blows the start. Form cycle hints at better while current form is just fine. Does he have a penchant for second? This effort will tell us a lot.

SIXTH RACE

OIL CHANGE might have the best speed. The added half furlong helps theft chances. What if he improves second time this dirt? Many do. We think he can secure an early breather unless Corbett falls asleep at the helm. BRAVADO has route speed on the cut back so he might get first shot at our top pick. Lone distance try was a solid second. TRAWEEK ran OK at this down and distance only two back. His distance tab at 18-5-4-3 is the best in the field. Off the pace runner fits Hernandez to a T.

SEVENTH RACE

HE’S MUNNIE missed a Beyer top by two points last out and that was in a dirt sprint. We think he is just better on the grass going two turns. Form cycle hints at better, he draws inside, and lures a hot Scott Stevens. XTREME LYRA is by a 8% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced and this is her first turf foal. Works hint that Diodoro has this stakes runner feeling good. WOODIE B AWESOME has a few turf tries on this sod that fit. The layoff figures good for him as he hadn’t had any time off for a

while. Lots and lots of works and they are well spaced.

EIGHTH RACE

C. C. TOP didn’t break well in her most recent and was facing first time winners but she still got the show dough. She even ran a Beyer top. Race flow is more than fair. We just need a decent break from this tricky post. GOOD N NAUGHTY just ran better and now goes third off the layoff. Half furlong cut back might put this filly just off the speeds but in front of the closers. MINERSINGSTHEBLUES didn’t care for the turf in her last few but that makes sense as grass breeding is so so. She did get a 35 Beyer when breaking her maiden and figures better now.