ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, PLAYWRIGHT

FIRST RACE

DO IN WHAT SHE LIKES might slip thru the wagering cracks a bit in a short field despite three consecutive on-the-board finishes. Claimed from two consecutive races, she was freshened after her latest and may return eager to run; value play. ISOTOPE stayed even paced when third at this starter $50,000 level Nov. 9, regressing off a blowout claiming victory in fast time a race earlier; rebound expected from a horse that is 8-3-0-3 on dirt and a winner in the slop. SHORT KAKES outperformed ISOTOPE when second Nov. 3; owns consistently the fastest speed figures but often tends to settle for minor awards; aside for a narrow claiming victory in the slop this summer, has repeatedly came up empty in the final furlong.

SECOND RACE

With rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday morning it seems best to handicap this scheduled turf race as if it gets moved to the dirt... Maintrack-only entrant PLAYWRIGHT seems clearly best under that scenario, having the best dirt form in the race as well as the consistently the highest main-track speed figures. RUN FOR BOSTON is probably a little better on turf than dirt, but he ran adequately to be a non-threatening third in the slop Nov. 22. Horses that lack early speed, which is the case with him, are better used underneath in the gimmicks. SUMMER MISCHIEF is moved into a maiden claimer for the first time after some competitive efforts in New York-bred straight maiden races on the grass. Although a soundlybeaten fourth of five in his only main-track appearance, that came in his debut and perhaps inexperience was at least partially to blame.

THIRD RACE

HOLD ME DOWN was freshened after a thoroughly disappointing effort when sixth at Penn National last out, and perhaps after a little time off and a class drop, can return to form in this $16,000 claimer; second two back at Belmont for $32,000 when racing seven eighths under today’s jock, Manny Franco. SLAM CHOWDER recorded her sixth win from 15 dirt starts in winning for $12,500 here Nov. 4, defeating MARNESIA BIG GIRL in the process; was claimed that day and fits if she picks up where she left off; two works since her last race is a positive reflection of her health. MARNESIA BIG GIRL dominated on the lead last out for $10,000 under Irad, and though unlikely to make the front again, she ought to be able to enjoy a favorable pressing trip outside the other principal speed horses, JOSEPHINE’S MOMENT and LIAM’S WORLD.

FOURTH RACE

FREE KITTY transferred her sharp turf form to dirt with a clear-cut runner-up finish against a classier group of maiden claimers Nov. 8; an above-average work coming into this race and possesses the tactical speed to get a favorable up-close trip. AMADELINE’S HOPE shows ascending Beyers and comes off her best race to date, a close fourth Nov. 7 in which she was beaten four lengths and just a half length for the place money; now picks up Irad, though her deep-closing style is a drawback. PAULA’S PISTOL finished 7 1/4 lengths behind the top choice when fourth Nov. 8, but has more upside than others, having made just a couple starts.

FIFTH RACE

AUDIBLE, purchased for $500,000 in March, was an eye-catching winner on the dirt here in his second start in a strung-out field; well spotted as a main-track-only entrant with rain in the forecast leading into Wednesday’s card. Stablemate BARBAROSSA is the choice for the grass after blowing away maidens by 8 1/2 lengths on the turf Oct. 18; rare for a turf horse to win by such