ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, SOPHISTICATION

FIRST RACE

SMALL REBELLION debuts for trainer Arnaud Delacour, who wins at a very high rate with firsters; dam won her own debut, as a 2-year-old, and this filly doesn’t meet a deep field for her first start. FRIENDS TALK has proven speed and could shake loose from her “outside” (post five) starting slot; dangerous if able to shake loose in the early stages. MISS CAY O’SEA gets back on the main track after turfing in recent tries and figures to be prominent from the start.

SECOND RACE

HONEST FIGHT could be the main speed in his first start since September, as this sprint seems to be a little light on pace; proven over this strip, as he enjoyed a solid meet here last year. DO YAHWANNA SALSA could be the main pace rival to the top pick; big threat if able to run back to the Beyer he posted in that decent effort two back. OVERCAME has steady figures and enough tactical speed to work out a forward trip, which would be an edge if the pace is in fact controlled.

THIRD RACE

NINETY DEGREES comes out of shorter races at Mountaineer and he may well be at his best at this distance; likely to be a factor from the bell, as this is another sprint lacking an obvious race flow. HIGH HEEL LADY has the versatility to lead or rate, but given an inside post and an aggressive rider in Jose Ferrer she figures to take advantage if the fractions are mild; sharp here last winter. STARLIGHT ANGEL seemed to have lost her best chance at the start in her latest; obviously, she’s better than that, and while she will need to improve to win this she does at least have some early zip.

FOURTH RACE

SOPHISTICATION is going to be a handful here just on the strength of his Beyers, which are the best figures in the field; may get first run at expected pacesetter PHAT LARRY, who will try to steal this. The latter could get brave if able to get clear in the opening stages and back down the fractions; certainly capable if unpressured on the lead. BRASS BADGE has the ability to keep it close early on, and if he’s able to be part of the pace mix and the splits are mild he could prove tough to run down.

FIFTH RACE

MOONLIT COVE was against the race flow in two of her three losses, pressing the pace last time in a race which set up well for the closers (see “C” in DRF running line) and trying to close in his debut, where the speeds held the edge (as noted by bold “S”); only other try resulted in a solid Beyer which fits well here. KLEEVE EDGE is kin to three winners, and the dam won three races herself; nice work for this last week. ELUDE has some of the better figures in the field, and she’ll be tough if she can run back to those Beyers.

SIXTH RACE

TRIUMPHANT JOY should fall into a perfect trip behind a contested pace, as there are several speeds in this field and he is capable of taking back and making a late run; should be able to run down the speeds if he gets a clean trip and the splits are quick enough. NICK THE CARDSHARK is quick from the gate but can also rate if need be; that versatility, and his solid figures, make him the one to beat. GREELY IS BACK has consistent figures and tactical speed; overall win percentage is lacking but he has to be considered a threat for exotics.

SEVENTH RACE

IM CHILLIN was stuck behind a controlled pace in a race lacking speed in his latest, on the main track, and he moved prematurely in his prior run; effort before that one, where he earned a 71 Beyer, may well be good enough to get him there first today. STORYBOOK SECRET made a run at the paceset-

ter and made the lead before wilting late in his most recent; try before that was better than it may appear, as he was against the race flow. SOCAROO is wide but he’s also speedy and he figures to be a factor from the start; could have trouble shaking loose, however.

EIGHTH RACE

SOBY JUNIOR has speed and the rail, and in a race lacking speed that’s certainly an edge; not wild about the fact that he stopped last time despite having the pace scenario in his favor but he might be able to get clear this time. WING FIGHTER stretches out and could prevent that scenario from happening; his own chances likely hinge on whether he is the one able to shake loose and control the pace. PLEASE HUMOR ME has had his chances at that elusive second career win but he does loom the main threat in the lane.

NINTH RACE

VIVA FOREVER is winless on the grass but she did run some solid races on the turf at Woodbine earlier this year; needs pace, as she’s at her best when she’s able to come from out of it, but she should get it. DEPUTY DORA is another who will be looking to make a stretch bid; outside post should enable her to avoid trouble, though she also needs to avoid a wide trip. GOT GLEE sprinted in her lone turf try to date but she ran well enough to suggest she is at her best on this surface.