ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, UNDERPRESSURE

FIRST RACE

JES A FAST DASHER has done some of his best work at FG, can improve off the last start, and ought to be a fair price. HEZA LOUISIANA DASH close to halfmillion in earnings and easy to respect, but at end of 5yo season his form shows some signs of slippage. HEZA BELL PERRY beat a bunch of the best in here racing over this distance at FG in September.

SECOND RACE

Soft edition of the QH Derby. FAST DASHIN DEE capable of much more than he showed in troubled recent stakes run. Trainer that took over this fall has + ROI in several pertinent categories. DONT KILL PATRIOT shows no stakes runs but should be prominent early and was stuck on the rail last time. If this race were up to historical par he’d be an outsider, but it’s not. ROYAL QUICK PATRIOT isn’t certain to love the 400 yards, but that’s a question hanging over many here.

THIRD RACE

DASHNUNDER A FULLMOON was 4-4 with two stakes wins before a troubled run in an EVD trial. Stands great chance of bouncing back with another win. SECOND DOWN LEAVING 4-5 wins, done little wrong on his races, and has a win and a strong second over the track. FABULOUSLY BLACK much bigger price than the obvious top two. He’s had some excuses for his poorer showings and should be finishing well.

FOURTH RACE

B BRAZIN wants to be held up and make one run, and in a false-paced short route July 17 he had no chance to do that. All the other turf races showing in his form fit this spot, and he comes off a strong dirt win at Delta. THUNDERBERG looks of comparable recent quality to the top pick but is three years older than Brazin and is what he is, at this point. SOUTHERN MISTER doesn’t have bad turf form, but neither does he really finish off those races like an actual turf horse.

FIFTH RACE

The crazy thing is the La-bred 2yo maiden filly sprint later on the card looks a deeper spot than the Champions Day Lassie. MINIT TO STARDOM just cruised to a debut win three weeks ago, and connections who knew she had talent surely left something in the tank for this richer stakes. Only bad luck or unexpected regression will get her beat here, but she’ll probably be closer to 2/5 than 5/2. First-timer COOL SPRING was cross-entered in that maiden race and might be better off trying the stakes field first time out. AND THE BAND PLAYED ON is stable-mate of top pick, but despite solid summer form has not looked in the same league as Minit talent-wise.

SIXTH RACE

DO NT MESS WITH JOANNE has so far shown about zero positional speed on turf, and because of that, stable-mate INVENIAM VIAM got the jump on her in the Nov. 18 Si Cima, the prep for the Champs Day Ladies, which has been moved from dirt to turf this year. This time, there should be more pace up front, and D ont mess with joanne get san extra half-fur long with which to work. She could get there this time. Questioned Inveniam Viam’s form going into the Si Cima but the move back to La-bred popped her right back toward the top of her performance range. Her

ceiling, however, is known, whereas her 3yo stablemate should still have room to grow. CALAMITY JANE might have “needed” that Si Cima start and has run well enough in the past to get into the top three.

SEVENTH RACE

$110,000 is a hefty auction price for a La-bred by Flat Out, and SPECIAL BLESSING’s work pattern into debut suggest, like she must have shown at the sale, a horse with talent. The double-digit morning-line odds would appeal, but doubt we see them. You can see two horses on this card who already won at the meet as Al Stall-trained first-time starters by Star Guitar, and here’s another one, STARLET GUITAR, who looks very live first out. CHAMPAGNE DIVA has a lively work pattern and a strong pedigree, but the capable barn has no recent history of hitting with first-time starters.

EIGHTH RACE

Fair pace on paper boils this down (for me) to EXTRA CREDIT and FORT PULASKI, and it’s Extra Credit who might be the better price with more room to come forward this start. He’s second-time gelding and was closing from farther back than Fort P in the prep for the Champs Day turf. FORT PULASKI got the job done in the Mr. Sulu, but that also was the first turf win of his career. Stands decent chance of repeating the performance. TRUST FACTOR figures to be favored again, but he just doesn’t seem to want to be taken back much off the pace, and continues to look suspect at distances beyond one mile.

NINTH RACE

GREELEY WENT WEST might simply not have the talent of a horse like DIVINE BEAN, but while I like Divine Bean and accord him a strong chance, have to side with what might be a live horse at a much better price. Beat no stars in LaD debut, but took money and made a strong turn move after getting in a bit tight early and having to be held off the leaders. Sustained that run and was eased across the wire, and had to be restrained from galloping out even stronger. Work pattern says he has been pointed here all along - and is training well. Short chart comment for Divine Bean — “eased up final 1/16” - is what you want to see with three-week turnaround. Think he went to the front because of rail draw in debut, and expect to see him off the pace if the leaders are going fast. EXIGENT tired late in a two-turn Delta 7f tilt last time and apparently wanted no part of CD turf, but his sprint debut showed potential.

TENTH RACE

UNDERPRESSURE basically never runs a poor race, and as a late-season 3yo he still should have room to grow. Has never tried this nine-furlong distance but absolutely is bred to get it. With Seaside Candy to be scratched, it looks like Mobile Bay on the lead and Underpressure pressing or stalking, and that’s probably the right trip on the day. The same can’t be said for MAGEEZ, who very much seems to be set for a peak performance here, but could be done in by a lack of pace. The last two were just stepping-stones to this. MOBILE BAY not only has been off since February, he was forced out of an intended prep at Delta when he got sick and missed a little training. Maybe if he makes an easy lead and just gallops around there he can still win, but not betting on that at short odds.

ELEVENTH RACE

NUBIN RIDGE seemed to run too well winning the Heitai S last November, then regressed in the Champions Day Sprint, so connections reasonably passed the prep this time and bring him up to the richer race fresh, though he did have a fairly recent run Oct. 21 at DED. Yes, he’s a 7yo, but appears to be in strong enough form, and could get the right race shape. MY FRIEND FLAVIN on exactly the same pattern (off since July) as when he scored 15/1 upset in this race last year. As was the case then, he stalks the speed and gets first run on deep closers. The concern is his form took a real dip over the summer. JOCKAMO’S SONG has long ranked among the leading La-bred sprinters be it on turf or dirt, but he’s back from a break at a short price and probably can’t afford to get swept up into a strong pace.

TWELFTH RACE

Was tempted to side against favored MY MISS CHIFF with WHEATFIELD, but Wheatfield won’t be much of a price either, and as a lightly raced 3yo it’s My Miss Chiff with all the upside. The reasons to consider trying to beat are potential regression after a good comeback win, and an inside draw in a race with plenty of pace. Will need to work out some sort of trip. If Chiff gets jammed up and the front-runners rip around the turn, Wheatfield can mow them down. She should improve to some degree on her last out. Speaking of improvement, SUNNY OAK almost has to she was so poor in her last-start prep for this. Probably has never quite shown the talent of a Chiff, and she’s got to deal with post 1.

THIRTEENTH RACE

MR. CARLOS had trouble at the break, then again into the turn while showing decent debut speed from an inside draw. He probably needed the race in any case. Worked back since and seems a likely improver with a better post and at a price. VIOLENT WAYS appeared to tire late in his debut after taking betting action and showing some early and middle pace. Worked back a bullet 5f since that start. $100K Violence La-bred not too many of those afoot. NIPPY RED blinkers on for second start after taking all the money in solid enough Delta debut. Clear contender but a likely underlay.