ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, ANDESINE

FIRST RACE

COMBAT CONTROLLER, already a three-time winner, is eligible for this claimer as a 3-yearold under the split nature of the conditions; just romped vs. cheaper here going this distance of a mile, posting easily the top last-race Beyer, an 80; enough tactical speed to be close to be on or near the lead in a race without much pace. TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK is just 2 for 27 but has been in respectable form lately and also appears to be one of the speedier ones in this short cast. THIRST FOR VICTORY disappointed in a couple tries at Parx off the claim even though some of his fastest races and one of his wins came there earlier in his career; just his second start in a claiming race; a three-time winning 3-year-old, like the top choice.

SECOND RACE

Guessing this scheduled turf race gets moved to the main track with snow predicted on Saturday followed by cold, windy conditions on Sunday... that scenario would make ANDESINE difficult to beat. A main-track only entrant, he is 9-2-3-1 on dirt while racing mostly in allowance and maiden special weight contests; class of this $35,00 N3L/3YO claimer on dirt. CHRISTMAS SKY has only won a single race, but is likewise a filly that is proven on dirt, having dominated maiden claimers in her last start. And if this race stays on the grass? Then TALKLESS SMILEMORE and HOPONTHEBUSGUS are the logical contenders, with the former exiting allowances and the latter coming off a near miss in a somewhat tougher claimer over this course.

THIRD RACE

MORITZ and HOLLAND PARK are a pair of nicelybred first timers from the Kiaran McLaughlin barn that catch a small, inexperienced cast. Thinking MORITZ will offer the greater odds of the two as the public pounces on HOLLAND PARK, who landed Irad .... ’PARK certainly appears legit, but drawing the top jock and being out of a Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner will drive down the price. SHARPE AND READY is another debuting youngster and though this one doesn’t have the pedigree power of the top two, he has been breezing swiftly, firing three bullets.

FOURTH RACE

BACKYARD HEAVEN ran well at first asking with a runner-up finish in a fast race behind Copper Town, a next-out allowance winner by 6 1/4 lengths with a 106 Beyer. None of today’s maidens have remotely that kind of ability; probable 1-5 shot and minus-pool show horse. PEACE SPEAKER managed a couple on-the-board finishes on turf this summer before a disappointing run when ninth, albeit with a wide trip, in his latest; managed a third on dirt to begin his career - so likely to fire on the Aqueduct main track. STRONG SIDE is a repeated check earner but sits at 0 for 12 and seems best used in the 2-3 spots in the gimmicks.

FIFTH RACE

5-1 shot MYDADFLOYD is returned to New York after a one-race experiment at Laurel in which he ran fifth in a starter allowance; had previously won a maiden claimer here Nov. 11; untested at a mile but his pedigree suggests he can stay the distance. ODE TO THE HUNT seemingly prefers turf to dirt but at least has managed one third-place finish from four starts on the surface; plenty of pace to aid his rally. LOST IRON is the class of the race and has winning connections in his corner, but not having been out for over a year makes him a risky play at his 2-1 morning line.

SIXTH RACE

BROKEN ENGAGEMENT is a fast New York bred that is established over the track and distance; three wins to his credit, but eligible for this first-

level allowance because his post-maiden victories came vs. state-bred foes. Stablemate HAMMERIN

AAMER was smartly shipped to Maryland to run against state-bred runners there in a restricted race - and therefore didn’t lose his first-level allowance condition in New York with state-bred wins being exempted; another proven at a mile.

CARLINO twice ran some flashy figures - 97 and 98 Beyers - within the starter $50,000 ranks at Belmont; performed well when fresh in September and should do so again after a short layoff going back to Oct. 4.

SEVENTH RACE

NOTHINGBUTASMILE shows steadily improving Beyers, and has exhibited the versatility to perform well on turf or dirt. That is key in a race that could get transferred from turf to dirt if weather forecasters are correct about snow, cold, and wind in New York this weekend. SAME KINDA CRAZY is far more experienced on turf than dirt, but she has at least posted Beyers in the 60s in her last two dirt races. Only NOTHINGBUTASMILE and ARIETTA have exceeded that on dirt. ARIETTA, a main-track-only entrant, has struggled this year, going unplaced in seven starts, but lands in the right spot to be competitive again if this race gets moved to dirt.

EIGHTH RACE

DIVINE MISS GREY and VERDANT PASTURES are a pair of fast fillies in the best form of their lives; giving the edge to DIVINE MISS GREY, my guess who will be the better price of the two as a former $16,000 claimer. VERDANT PASTURES, on the other hand, has a stakes win against New York-breds jumping out in her past performances.

FELINI has strung three promising races together in a row, though two of those races came at Parx, where the company is easier; ran fourth at Belmont after a win and a second at Parx.

NINTH RACE

BURKEY’S BABE gets a pass for being outrun in her last two starts. Both races came in straight maiden events, and one of them on turf. Now she gets back to racing in a maiden claimer on dirt, conditions under which she was second at Saratoga this summer. HAY FIELD is the logical favorite after three runner-up finishes at this maiden $25,000 class level. Her recent dirt Beyers are also best of these. PAZ THE WINE will be likely to be overbet in the win pool for a filly that is 12-0-3-5; best used underneath in the exotics in light of her history of minor awards at relatively short odds.