ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SHE SANG

FIRST RACE

COLORED CRAYON just scored a 30-to-1 upset while showing vast improvement. Does that mean a bounce is coming? Perhaps, but that effort was in line with how she ran last year so we’ll take the optimistic view that she has found the right level and is back to her old form. If we’re right, we may not get 30-to-1, but she should offer value. LOVE IN THE SHADOWS was favored over the top pick last time. She stalked nice and turned in an even effort while settling for fourth. She loves this course and has as many wins on it as any other mare in the field has total victories. SARA THE GREAT was always in contention in the race against the top two. She raced wide and hung a bit in the lane while finishing third. Rail draw could help her.

SECOND RACE

CASTLE has been well-freshened for his comeback having run third in his May 1, 2015, debut. He’s worked nicely, and there’s always the first-race-after-gelded angle, even though that event happen more than a year ago. Like his works, and he has one younger brother who just happens to be this year’s El Camino Real Derby winner. ROBS LUCKY SPIRIT returned from an eight-month freshener and turned in a credible performance. He’s never failed to pick up a minor check, but he has three siblings, and no one from his generation has won yet. Raced wide and finished nicely at five furlong in his comeback and should appreciate the extra furlong today. WILD LANDO ran second in both starts down south, first in a high-priced claimer and then, eight months later, in a straight maiden race. He’s worked nicely since then and has turn in two solid efforts.

THIRD RACE

CROWN POINT continues to drop down the claiming ranks. She hits the bottom level today as she returns to the sprint game, but she did run at the bottom level on the turf last time. She stalked in her sprints and sat back in the route, making a big move into the lane before fading. Sprint distance may be better for her so watch for her in the lane. BONNIE’S RANSOM returned from a two-month freshener and moved back to the main track. She ran evenly while finishing third, and today, she drops a notch. Has a decent maintenance drill since her comeback. NEAT N TEIDE makes her U.S. debut here after making her first three career starts in Canada. She’s had three works here, but condition is a legitimate question. This is a big drop, and, if she’s fit, she can be a contender.

FOURTH RACE

CASH CANNON has run a mile in both career starts, winning her debut and then running second in the Pike Place Dancer. Both races were on the turf, but the route experience she has could prove invaluable as she makes her first start in nearly six weeks. She showed improvement in the stakes race and has worked steadily since then. ANIVA BAY looked good winning her debut at Fresno and then closed belatedly but strongly in the Golden Gate Debutante. This is her first try around two turns, but breeding says she’ll like it, and she does seem to have talent. She’ll be one to follow next year as a 3 YO. MY SWEET EMMA is well-traveled and was stakes placed in her second start. She did little on the turf at Del Mar and is sent north. She should appreciate the chance to stretch out.

FIFTH RACE

DIXIE PISTOL was overmatched as barn took a shot in the Grade 3 Berkeley last time. He’d been running well, and it was probably worth a try, but he’s a much better fit here. He won on the turf in a cheaper starter allowance two back and is back on the turf today. He has run well for this tag this

year and figures tough up front. TAELYNS PRINCE was claimed for the qualifying price last year and has been meeting better this year. He’s had a good 2017 and closed well once he got out of a tight spot in the lane to miss by only a head in his comeback. Barn enjoys success in the second start off a layoff so give him a good look. SIR VRONSKI has won five of nine starts here, including holding on in a game effort against better over the course last time. Prior to that, he won a sprint at Fresno. Plenty of speed in this race, and he should take advantage of his early foot and outside draw.

SIXTH RACE

SHE SANG just won for this tag in her second start following a layoff. She likes this track, and she is placed perfectly. She’s hit the board in all four starts for this tag, twice losing photos. She has an easy work since her last start and really only has to match her last effort to win. COUNT ON NIKKI graduated for this tag in her third start. She was favored and didn’t have the cleanest of tripe. Runner-up has already come back to win. Has worked nicely since, including a three-furlong bullet in her final drill. OUR FAVORITE CITY, like the top pick, thrives at this level. Before losing as the favorite to the top pick in her last start, she had two wins and a third in previous starts for this tag.

SEVENTH RACE

LADY VALEUR is the defending champ and unbeaten in three Nocal stakes starts. She ran third as the favorite in a prep for this race, but that race was switched from turf to the main track. She did win this race on a similar switch last year, but she’s better on turf. The 8-year-old CENTRAL HEAT loves this course and won back-to-back runnings of the Golden Poppy on it. She did little in the same prep as the top pick, but she’s a turf specialist. She may have lost a step, but she’s still tough and has won her past two starts over this course. ALLIFORD BAY is a 3 YO who beat older in a stakes at Sacramento this summer. She beat the top pick in the aforementioned prep, which was her first try around two turns. This will be her first start on the turf, but breeding suggests she’ll like it. Has a horrible draw in the outside 14 post, but barn didn’t even consider running her Saturday in the Bear Fan.

EIGHTH RACE

OIL puts blinkers back on today. He got shuffled back on the turn last time, rallied into a contender position but tired late as he returned from a twomonth freshener. He’s a solid performer enjoying a good year. Though he has only one win at this distance, he’s hit the board in nine of 10 starts. He’s also hit the board in six of seven starts here, including three victories. He’ll be in contention throughout. SWEET RIVER BAINES is making his third start after a layoff. He was the odds-on winner of a starter allowance last time, rallying nicely after falling farther behind than usual. With the exception of a turf stakes going a mile, he’s hit the board in all four of his other starts. He has a solid five-furlong bullet in his final prep for this.

BROWNIE FINALE is a stalker with a good record here and at this distance. He has a chance to offer value too.

NINTH RACE

GILDED is bidding for a turf repeat today. She loves grass and sat closer last time against a legitimate pace. She’s Miss Exacta on the turf course here (five exacta finishes in six tries), and she’s been in the exacta in her past three starts. Barn could be involved in a battle for the leading trainer and has live mounts to end the meet. EUPHEMISTIC is stepping up here. Note the result of the first race because she comes out of a race that many of the first-race entrants ran in. ANNISQUAM has a perfect record on this course, although both races were five-furlong sprints. She is a solid sprint and is making her third start off a layoff. Breeding suggests she’ll have no trouble going two turns.

TENTH RACE

COUNTRY ROAD was sent north to run a Santa Rosa this summer and stayed here. He won dropped and won following a nearly 11-week layoff. It was his first start here, and he overcame trouble into the turn to rally nicely for the win. He gets the rail today as he steps up but was inside last time. Wish he had an outside post. OUT AT EIGHT just ran second at this level against Sweet River Baines who is a contender stepping up in today’s eighth race. He was content to stalk from mid pace and rallied past tiring runners as the winner pulled clear from the field. ONE SON OF A CHIEF was claimed from a win two back that doesn’t count against him here. He’s got a first and third in his two main-track starts here. He has shown ability routing but is better sprinting.