ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, LA FORCE

FIRST RACE

RAFTER ONE ran one of his best races in his only try on this track when a big winner over $12,500 N2L foes Sept. 16. He then set a brisk pace routing vs. some nice starter allowance foes at SA Oct. 26 before fading to 5th. He’s back to a better distance, back to a track you know he likes and with a class drop to boot. THE NATURAL continues his good form which includes a game win over $6,250 N2X foes here last time out Dec. 2. He figures to be coming. BOOMPA came back after a few months off to be a decent 3rd in a race like this here Sept. 14. He’s been freshened again but is proven off this kind of layoff, proven at this level and on this track. It also bodes well he’s been working sharply here the past month or so.

SECOND RACE

CHIEF HOSA set a strong pace when last seen before finishing 2nd to a clear winner at SA Oct. 22. That came at this level, albeit on turf. That run shows the level suits and he showed talent on dirt before. With his speed he’s the one to catch. ZAP AGAIN looked super blasting $30K maiden claimers here Sept. 15 by 5 3/4 lengths. Treece saw fit to claim him that day and while he hasn’t run since, which is a bit worrisome, it’s a good sign to see him brought back in a spot where they can’t lose him via another claim. Still, there’s a layoff to ponder and it’s first time vs. winners. MISTER MOJO appeared to figure things out last time out at SA Oct. 20 when he dueled and blasted maidens. Could be the light has gone on for this guy and as with ZAP AGAIN it’s most encouraging they do not again risk him for a tag.

THIRD RACE

ONE MORE ROLL continues his strong run with 11 top-3 finishes in his last 12 starts, including a big win going 870 yards for $8K here Nov. 25. Craigmyle saw fit to claim him that day and this 5yo surely handles this longer trip. This is also his sandbox. INDAVIDUALIST came back after 5 months off with 2 wonderful winning efforts vs. more expensive at SA in October. His last 2 at DMR in November weren’t as sharp but they came vs. more expensive. Today’s drop may be key. LAMBO LUXX sat back in a race like this at DMR Nov. 12, made a threatening move turning for home but flattened out. He did have trouble that day and it’s nice to see no drop. In fact, he’s up slightly in price and is reunited with Roman, who was up for his last 2 wins.

FOURTH RACE

HOLY PLAN looked like a new horse blasting $3,200 N2X foes at GG Dec. 1 by 10 1/2 lengths. Yes, those were much cheaper foes, but the price hike is most encouraging. And, yes, that was on synthetic but she’s handled various synthetic tracks so odds are she’ll handle this dirt footing. IRISH AND LUCKY came back after 8 months to set the pace before tiring to 7th on turf vs. much tougher at DMR Nov. 17. Off that he dropped a bunch when he came here Nov. 30, moved to dirt and romped. So, it looks as though he’s back on track and dirt is his preferred footing. The slight price hike encourages. ULTIMATE GAME appears headed the right way as he gamely prevailed on GG synthetic Nov. 16. Remember, though, his prior two wins both came on dirt so he’s no fish out of water here. Two nice works since encourage, too.

FIFTH RACE

ADVENTUROUS broke his maiden over this track in game fashion Sept. 16. He was no real danger in his next two starts, both vs. winners, but was facing more expensive. So, today’s drop and the return to this track may be just what the Dr. ordered. WHERE’S BUBBA has perked up of late as after a series of not-so-hot outings he’s posted 3 straight 3rds. It won’t take much of a step forward off those to be a threat here. SLASHER was 3rd at SA Oct. 14 while no threat to a runaway winner (beaten by 10 1/4 lengths) but remember he was only a half-length behind top pick ADVENTUROUS in 2nd so he’s by no means out of his element here.

Hew was no factor then at DMR. Nov. 5 but was facing more expensive. This is a better level and it’s nice to see top rider Roman keep the call.

SIXTH RACE

ELDAAFIRST flashed some tactical speed and talent in his debut at DMR 3 months ago before fading to 8th. Remember, though, you can always be forgiving about a debut run and it also came for more than three times this tag. The drop may be key for his first start since, and it’s encouraging he’s been working well for a trainer who does nicely off the bench. That debut run was flattered, too (3 he faced that day came right back to win). BEYOND WONDERFUL may be the one to beat as he has ample speed and recency. He dueled before running 6th at this level last time out at DMR Nov. 17. He’s worked strongly since and gets blinkers. THANKFUL EVERY DAY came back after a year on the bench to set a brisk pace for more than twice this tag before ending up a well-beaten 3rd (13 1/2 lengths). He can certainly benefit from that run and today’s big drop, and it’s a good sign there’s not another layoff after that comeback run.

SEVENTH RACE

DIALED TO GO dueled and paid the price as the 1-2 favorite at about this level at DMR Nov. 26, fading to 4th. She faces other speed again here but she’s outside that speed (MISS PRETTY) so that could prove the difference. As noted, MISS PRETTY has ample speed herself and she comes off a fine 2nd for $50K here Dec. 1. So, not only does she drop, but she’s proven on this track. MISS KITAEN pressured the pace before ending up a well-beaten 3rd (5 1/2 lengths behind winner Willows Babe and runner-up and today’s foe DIALED TO GO). She’s been freshened, has worked well and Romans stays. Her debut 2nd came on this track at this trip at this level so she fits, and with her sit-and-finish style she may fall into a real nice trip as the top two could end up dueling up front.

EIGHTH RACE

LA FORCE tried dirt for the first time in her last two, finishing a good 2nd on this track Sept. 15 and a sharp 2nd at SA Oct. 21, chasing a stakes filly (Pacific Wind) home that day. She’s been freshened and looks spotted for action. WHAT WHAT WHAT comes off a sharp 3rd, beaten just a half-length last time out Nov. 5. Yes, that came sprinting on turf but she’s proven routing on dirt. That was also her first in six months so she can surely improve, and a bullet work at SLR Nov. 28 says she’s doing well. STARR OF QUALITY stalked and ran on decently to be 2nd to a clear winner last time out at DMR Aug. 23. Spawr saw fit to claim her that day for $32K (20% off a claim) and while she hasn’t run since it’s encouraging she returns up in price, and note a solid 2nd in her only prior try on this track.

NINTH RACE

CARRIE’S SUCCESS has been knocking on the door with three solid outings to start her career. She might be ready to break through. She’s shown some versatility, too. SUPER PATRIOT appears headed the right way for Baffert. The $196K daughter of Unusual Heat’s last two improved outings came on turf, yes, but the Unusual Heats run on anything. FUNNY BEAN flashed talent when 3rd in her debut here in the late summer but then tossed in three duds. However, she bounced back with a nice rallying 2nd routing on turf at DMR last time out Nov. 19 so she may be back on track. LA LA LAND debuts with solid works and all six sibs to race are winners including Motown Men (7 wins, $470K, SW, 4 SPs including a G3). ALLIE’S LOVE debuts with plenty of works and is kin to two winners including Richard’s Boy (9 wins, $848K, 4 SWs, 11 SPs including a G1 and 2 G3s). SMOOVIE debuts with nice works and is a full to Smoove It (5 wins, $395K, SW, 5 SPs including a G3).