Curlin’s Approval loves Gulf track

Gulfstream Park is the only racetrack in the United States running graded stakes Saturday afternoon – five, to be exact. Combine the strong Gulfstream card with the lack of much else across the country from a stakes point of view and you’re left with an all-Gulfstream Weekend Warrior.

Rampart

LEWIS BAY makes her first start as a 4-year-old after missing the past 13 months for trainer Chad Brown, and she makes plenty of sense here for many reasons. Brown’s numbers with runners off layoffs greater than one year in dirt races are strong (6 for 16, $2.53 ROI over the past five years), and it’s reasonable to assume that forward progression from 3 to 4 would be enough to make her the horse to beat. I’m going to play against her with CURLIN’S APPROVAL. Curlin’s Approval is a nice filly who has won a handful of graded stakes races throughout her career, but there’s no denying that she turns into a monster when she gets on the Gulfstream Park main track. Sporting a 7-for-10 record at Gulfstream is no small feat, and the added distance should be no issue for her, as she’s won going longer, most notably earlier this year in the Grade 2 Royal Delta.

Sugar Swirl

There are two major things working against DEAREST in the Sugar Swirl: the likely pace scenario and the rail post position. On paper there looks to be plenty of early foot in this six-furlong race, and Dearest’s draw on the inside likely forces Edgard Zayas’s hand from the gate. If she’s not sent hard, she runs the risk of getting boxed in with nowhere to go. If she’s used early to establish position, there’s a real chance she could get hooked in a speed duel and pay the price late. She may be the most likely winner, but at a short price I’ll take a shot against her. RICH MOMMY is admittedly slow on paper and will need to take her game to the next level if she’s to prevail, but she’s done little wrong throughout her career and her tactical speed could be the difference maker Saturday. If a heated pace develops on the front end, look for Luis Saez to position Rich Mommy a few lengths off the pacesetters and commence a run rounding the far turn.

Tropical Turf

Apart from ONE GO ALL GO, there doesn’t seem to be any confirmed one-way speed horses in the Tropical Turf. In races such as this, I’m always looking for horses that usually press the pace or can take the initiative and set the pace if allowed, and WESTERN RESERVE fits that description. Western Reserve didn’t run poorly in his first start off a minor layoff at Woodbine in the Autumn Stakes on Nov. 12, but that race was contested over a Tapeta surface that he may not have adored. Getting back to turf in a race that seemingly lacks much early zip could make Western Reserve dangerous at what should be a square price.