ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, TASTEFUL

FIRST RACE

CALIFORNIA SWING has been more of a turf horse throughout his career, so far, though his form of that surface hasn’t improved all that much from his three early attempts on dirt, which came vs. better horses; will give him one chance off the claim for Eddie Barker (small sample, but he is 3 for 8 off the claim in dirt routes over the past five years, $7.17 ROI) in a race where the favorites are once again not that strong. SCARF IT DOWN and SHADOW RIDER are the two favorites and the two horses to beat, which was also the case over this track and trip last month when they were defeated by a longshot shipper. Do think this might be a bit of an easier spot for the two of them, though SCARF IT DOWN remains open to distance questions, and SHADOW RIDER never quite seems to get there.

SECOND RACE

PARTY SPOT improved with a trainer change to the streaking Gary Gullo to post an easy maiden win last time over a horse who came right back to win with a 70 Beyer; appears to have landed in a good spot right back, and Gullo is one who keeps them going in the right direction. CARRY YOUR HEELS has no dirt form to speak of and is going to need some pace to develop in order to make an impact, but she should have some of that in this spot, and like her cutting back to sprint for this after failing to improve with more distance on grass. LEAH’S DREAM took charge of the early pace and made it all the way down inside the 1/16th pole before getting run down at this level last time; switches to go-to rider for this barn after being scratched by the vet from a similar spot a couple of weeks ago.

THIRD RACE

TASTEFUL has to improve as she tries the mile on dirt for the first time, but she is bred to be better with distance, and her form in her three starts since closing maiden win may be a bit dirtied up after racing over a speed-favoring track in her first start at Saratoga, then catching slop and turf. FULL HOUSE got loose on the lead an ran away from maidens over the old inner dirt early in the year, and she then went right into stakes company, where she hit the board a couple of times without really improving; did stumble slightly at the start of her return, but she was very disappointing in that race while coming up empty early on. BOULE somewhat surprisingly improved in her first two starts on dirt, while earning figures that would make her very tough in this spot; needs to bounce back after failing to make an impact as a heavy favorite over this track and trip last time. SPRING FOR MORE and MADDIZASKAR aren’t out of this with their best races, though they were in a better spot at a lower level on Wednesday’s canceled card.

FOURTH RACE

NIKO STRONG has to get 6 1/2 furlongs first time out, but he appears to have found the right kind of field for his debut, with several horses switching surfaces and the most of the dirt horses having already failed at this level; trainer having a strong year with his 2yos, and this horse has three siblings who were all winners sprinting on dirt. IT’S HOT OUT shipping no from Finger Lakes to race for the price after just missing a photo last month; has speed for an excellent trainer, and blinkers are going on for this. STEELERSFANFORLIFE didn’t break sharply from the gate first time out on turf, but he did have some speed to contest the pace before tiring in the stretch; switches surfaces for his second start while dropping in class and adding lasix.

FIFTH RACE

$12.5k claimer has a different look on a re-draw from the canceled card to start the week, with a couple of contenders neglecting to re-enter. That being the case, I’ll try POWER NAP second off the claim after making a run to contention and flattening out in his return from a short layoff; he’s most effective with some pace to run at, and there is some speed in this field. SIR BOND a contender

dropping a bit for Rudy on a nine-race losing streak, and a 1 for 19 skid in NY; don’t think he was winning after getting outrun early last time, but he did spend much of that race down toward a dead rail. BLUEGRASS SINGER has the back races to just dominate this field, but he has almost completely lost his form since posting that top figure win over Rally Cry back in March, and he has some other speed to deal with in this spot; drops again looking to turn it around. VELMA a half to the Grade 1 sprinter Princess Violet, who just missed at a big price in her debut against open company before returning to crush NY-breds in her next two starts, and eventually going on to better things in graded stakes races; figures ready debuting for Pletcher. PUFFERY has been away almost six months since a promising debut where she couldn’t quite get through on the rail in the stretch behind subsequent graded stakes winner Pure Silver; appears to be trainer forwardly into her return. LADY VICKI a half-sister to five winners from this dam, who was herself a multiple stakes-winning sprinter of over $550k; Baker can win first time out.

SEVENTH RACE

GORELLI has settled often enough in his career, but he figures to benefit from the class relief he sees here after actually running pretty well vs. tougher recently, including game 4th after a bit of a trip two back, and a solid try on a wide chase at Saratoga prior to that; two prior efforts vs. claimers were both strong, including dominant 83 Beyer win. VALYRIAN dropping after trying tougher horses in his first two NY starts, where he faced sharp winners both times; career debut was an underrated effort after getting bumped to last at the start and rushing up to duel, and he also had some speed when winning second time out, though he worked pretty hard in that race before finally catching a longshot on the lead. GEHRIG back to dirt and cutting back after giving way readily in turf mile on the drop when last seen; it was a while ago, so who knows what he remains capable of on dirt, but he faced some pretty tough competition and held his own on this surface early on in his career.

EIGHTH RACE

MISS HOT STONES finally broke through with a dominant win in her third career start, but she had run well enough to win in both of her prior races, and she is perfectly drawn on the outside of the other speeds in this race; figures tough here if just running either of her last two races back. WEGETSDAMUNNYS shipping down from Finger Lakes, where she got off to a solid start for an excellent trainer; was a short price in open company allowance last month, but she won that race easily and has the speed to keep up here.

PURE SILVER was a bit dressed up off Grade 2 win with an 88 Beyer over a speed-favoring track at Saratoga, but it’s not like she didn’t also run well in winning the first two starts of her career; form has tailed off drastically since, and she did not run particularly well last time when sitting a nice trip off an early duel and failing to make a race of it.

NINTH RACE

ARE WE NOT MEN 4 for 5 racing out of Rudy’s barn in his career, with the lone loss coming two back in a race where he pressured a solid pace all the way before getting closed down late; earned new top figure while dominating a similar field over this trip last time. NOMINAL DOLLARS has failed to threaten while running well in each of his last two starts over this distance, including a closing run in into that pressure-packed pace behind ARE WE NOT MEN in October; projects to have a set up in this race. NONNA’S BOY in a tough spot as speed from the rail in a field that is not lacking for pace, but expect him to improve for Rudy who is 28 for his last 63 (44%) with dirt routers off the claim at AQU over the past five years ($2.85 ROI).