ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, BROADWAY GIRL

FIRST RACE

Suppose ST. AUGUSTINE didn’t really have much of a chance in that second start when bumping into Montauk, but still thought he would run better than he did, and wasn’t exactly thrilled with the way he flattened out late in that race; still, he ran well enough in his first two starts to have one more chance in what appears to be the easiest spot he has found so far, and he was sent pretty hard for the lead before winding up on a dead rail going nine furlongs last time. AMERICAN LINCOLN an unknown on dirt, but he has the pedigree to handle the switch (dam posted two of her three career wins routing on dirt), and he certainly has the right connections with Linda Rice and Irad Ortiz, Jr. having teamed up to win with 11 of their last 18 starts together (though all of them were short prices). LABEQ debuted in a pretty tough spot behind a good-looking Pletcher firster and didn’t do all that much running after chasing wide; can improve in this easier spot, and will have to.

SECOND RACE

Will try to improve CURLIN’S NEW MOON with a class drop and surface switch in maiden claimer where no one inspires all that much confidence. CURLIN’S NEW MOON had a little speed on the stretch out last time before being rated (I guess to avoid getting caught wide) and winding up getting shuffled out of contention in a race that was won wire to wire, and he has more of a dirt pedigree; blinkers on. ACCUMULATOR didn’t break well and raced greenly in Parx debut behind a winning stablemate; can easily improve enough to win this as he drops right away and stretches out with blinkers on. TRIANGULATE a short price on the morning line with the best race showing, but he hasn’t actually run that well in any of his three starts to date; picked up a no threat 2nd in dirt debut last time behind a first-time starter. CATCH TWENTY TWO a half to the good dirt miler Tommy Macho debuting for a $25k tag, but he would be no surprise for Chad. BANNON has a nice pedigree for Pletcher, being out of a dam who is a sister to champion Ashado, as well as a couple of other graded stakes winners; suspect he may not have much speed as he makes belated debut going longer, after working on turf a couple of times. WHYAMISOLUCKY ran fine for 3rd at this level last time, though he was never a threat in that race; lasix on for this.

THIRD RACE

BEYOND THE GREEN lacks a winning profile but fits well here with his best effort in a race where the main speeds are suspect over the distance; may have wound up a little closer to the early pace than he prefers in his return from the layoff. STORM PROPHET also settles way too often to be confident in but he ran well in his return to dirt while coming wide after a wire-to-wire winner after getting bombed at the windows; didn’t love his grinding win over a weak field last time, but he goes for those hot connections, and Linda has been strong with last out winners on dirt from a large sample over the past five years (29% wins from 367 starts and a positive ROI). BRIMSTONE one of the speeds stretching out after getting buried by a sharp My Man Tate last time; has won going long before, unlike the other speed FORESET, but his wins have mostly been under favorable circumstances (speed track on Wood Day on a race scheduled for turf, a pair of loose leads on sloppy tracks, and another loose lead on a big class drop last January). FORESET dropped to win last time in a race where the only other speed entered was scratched; has struggled to see out the distance in the past, but he is plenty good enough to win here, especially if he can gain early control.

FOURTH RACE

BROADWAY GIRL appears to have found a pretty good spot if he can run a little, with the experienced runners in the field lacking inspiring form, and 2yos from this barn have been firing all year long; sire Jimmy Creed off to a fast start while getting 28% winners with 2yos in dirt sprints, and this filly is a half to the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Zero Rate Policy. LUNE LAKE turf to dirt and back down in class after going evenly in turf

debut last time; appeared to be a filly in need of her debut when breaking slowly and racing greenly early, before putting in a run through the stretch and galloping out well past the wire. DIAMOND

JEN BRADY another firster by a sire who is strong with his 2yos; firsters from this barn will occasionally get bet, but they can pop at a price. GO KELLY GO cut the pace and wound up in control after a pace rival bolted on the turn, but she was no match late for My Roxy Girl; can take it as a good sign that My Roxy Girl came back to win with a 78 Beyer on Thursday.

FIFTH RACE

MILO MILO just may not be very good, but if he has any ability he should be able to contend in this spot, and he may have enough speed to be involved from the start. Arrived here having won seven of his last eight starts in Argentina, and he didn’t have much of a chance in his lone dirt start here while chasing a sharp Shaft of Light on a fast pace and over a speed-favoring track; big drop for this for a trainer who is solid off of longer layoffs like this. LAZARUS PROJECT also dropping to a level where he can be effective; closing style mostly responsible for his overall record, but he ran several good races without winning in NY around this time last year. TOO FAST TO PASS dropping back down for second start off the claim for a hot trainer, and he ran well while making a fast pace at around this level two starts back; doesn’t appear to be much other speed for him to contend with in this spot.

SIXTH RACE

PUPPY MANNERS ran well for 3rd over this distance in his first start off the claim, and his most recent dirt start, also over seven furlongs, was a very good effort while prevailing in a pace duel, only to be closed down late by favored Tug of War; can contend here at a fair price if ready off the layoff. BEAR CLAUSE is entering in careerbest form after really improving for this trainer and earning the two best figures of his career in his last two starts; another contender at a fair price. NOMINAL DOLLARS in good form dropping in class, but he will need some pace to close into. BIG ZIP dropped for Rudy and prevailed after chasing the pace from the outside with the top last out Beyer in the field; best race will do, but not sure how confident you can be that he’ll run it, and Rudy’s numbers off of wins are only okay.

SEVENTH RACE

FORMAL START has not run all that well in his last four starts after beginning his career with an underrated look, though he has faced some much tougher fields than this one, and he was down inside last time on a day where the riders were mostly avoiding the rail; giving him a chance to at a price in the best spot he has found in a while. LUCKY LOU PAL’s two best dirt efforts have come over wet tracks in races originally scheduled for turf, but he did run well in both of those races, and he had no chance last time against graded stakes winner Giant Expectations; lightlyraced 3yo can step forward off the layoff. HERE

COMES TOMMY never wins but has plenty of figures to fall back on. TERRY O GERI may wind up favored in this race, and can clearly win as he cuts back a bit after blowing a clear stretch lead over a mile last time; not easy to like at too short of a price.

EIGHTH RACE

BELLEVILLE SPRING a new face in a race that might lend itself to a horse like him as he switches trainers and steps in with NY-breds for the first time. Think he received an uncharitable “hung” comment from the chart caller at Churchill after breaking outward pretty badly at the start and then making a long, wide run to contention around the turn, before weakening a bit late to finish nd 2nd to a promising winner who was purchased for $500k. STONEY BENNETT wired maidens with a strong figure first time out, and he improved a bit upon that 78 when secondbest in a similar race last month while turning back in distance; has clearly run well enough to win this as the likely favorite, though not sure what, exactly, his excuse was last time at 4/5; guess he’s sending with blinkers on. DEZZER debuted for a tag for a dangerous trainer, but he looked good winning there while flashing speed right from the start; figures to have to deal with the favorite early on. INALIENABLE RIGHTS took advantage of a fast contested pace to win his debut, and, while he hasn’t necessarily improved from there, he has run well in some tougher spots, and it did seem that closers were up against it in the Notebook last time; threat to run late at a price.

NINTH RACE

VIP NATION may not have faced the strongest field at this level last time but thought she ran well within the context of that race while chasing a fast and contested pace from the start, taking a bump while driving between horses in the stretch, and then winding over toward the rail as the 1-2 finishers closed outside. MISSIMPAZI dropped to this level last time and fought her way to the lead in the stretch, only to prove to be no match for fellow drop-down Salty Smile late; tough with a similar effort in this spot, and her speed plays. SHE’S DELIGHTFUL went favored in her career debut on dirt, but only after MISSIMPAZI was scratched from that race, and she didn’t really come close in either of her dirt starts against better; turf to dirt on the drop.