ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, WAR TOM

FIRST RACE

Two coupled entries here and scratches could change the dynamics of the race, but it’s really hard to envision something less than a taxing early and middle pace. DIVINE HOLIDAY wasn’t far from the lead in last-out HAW win but that was mainly circumstance, and he’d not be troubled being outrun behind fast splits and coming with a steady run. Spotted for action right now going $10K N2L to $5K N3L. Top one’s stable-mate BIG RAGU already a winner at the meet but could hardly have gotten a better trip last time. M J ALL DAY caught a sloppy track he might not have liked last time in first start down at a class level this low, and the way the race looks on the page his one-run closing style should play well.

SECOND RACE

TRUST IN DIANE bid just a bit early into a solid pace last time and paid the price when she was run down late, settling for second in a race just like this. Blinkers off (small sample size but good move for this barn) hints connections thought it was equine rather than pilot error. Stands strong chance and would take the morning-line odds. I. DAMIANA has decent turf form but taken here as top dirt pick. With all due respect the barn change seems meaningful, and her June 25 CD main-track try suggest she could be right one on main track. SHEZAPRADO just won this race and, as a 3yo, gets to run right back at the same condition. She’s solid enough but did get a very good setup last time.

THIRD RACE

Have to side with DOUG’S BUG on the old “sudden wake-up” angle that steadily points out fair-priced contenders in maiden claimers. The horse showed nothing in his first four starts, then out of nowhere wound up leading last time, holding for a close fourth as a 36/1 shot racing at this class level. Public often focuses too heavily on the long laststart price and horse then goes off as overlaid legit contender. STACK HOUSE was surprisingly close to the lead in his last-start DED comeback race and is better off as a stalking sprinter. Close fourth in a 5.5-furlong race like this last February at FG and probably prefers 6f. DUDE GREELEY has found his proper level (bottom maidens) & wouldn’t have to improve much off his last-start comeback run to get an elusive first victory. Morning-line favorite JAKE THE BAND MAN will be hard, hard pressed to stay the six furlongs.

FOURTH RACE

COME ON DOVER found a race in which he could keep up last time after getting run off his feet in first two starts. Caught wide on a wet course in that 9f CD turf race, and he probably got too heavily invested too soon. Projects better as one-run turf closer and could be set for best race here, though whether that’s good enough is uncertain. TARANTO solid KD & KEE runs to start career earlier in the fall and for whatever reason missed all the CD 2yo madness in November. Lack of recent published works noted. IT IS TIME on the one hand just missed last out but on the other was part of a blanket finish in a race perhaps over-rated by the speed figure. We’ll see.

FIFTH RACE

Can see why SAGUARO ROW was favored in the Rags to Riches 10/29 at CD after seeing how sweetly she traveled in LRL debut win, looking very much like a filly who would want more distance. Was pulling too hard early, but generally unsure what happened in Rags to Riches, other than she didn’t come forward a lick from first start. Maybe there’s nothing more there, but she’s gotten a freshening and has been working steadily, and little doubt this N1X allowance a softer spot than her last. MISSIVE, racing on Lasix for the first

time, got the job done second out when stretched from sprint to this two-turn trip, but can’t say she was especially eye-catching in that win. We’ll see how much more she has to give at likely underlaid odds. AMERICA’S TALE shook loose on the lead in an off-turf one-turn mile last out at CD and crushed foes. Much different circumstances now & won’t trust as the favorite.

SIXTH RACE

WAR TOM finished flashily first out turf-sprinting at IND and missed by half-length stretched to mile second out at CD in race where it looked like he wasn’t quite all there yet. Blinkers on could help with that. Gap between starts due in part to recent off-turf scratch. Ample upside. SOUL BEAM far better second out on turf than in dirt debut - did the sodden CD course help him or hurt him? Pretty sharp half-mile drill after arriving at FG. Should still be on upswing. TIME FLIES BY with a laudable career debut beaten half-length turf-routing over this course. That said, the field in that race was very closely bunched at the finish, and casting a skeptical eye toward it’s overall quality until shown otherwise.

SEVENTH RACE

LESLEY MAY bet to favoritism 11/16 making career debut at CD, but this barn rarely wins with first-timers, and after pressing the pace in that sprint, she faded late, though most of her beaten lengths were to runaway winner as she just missed second. Has pedigree to stretch out and trainer B Walsh far, far better with second-timers than firsters. MEMORIAL DRIVE has lost late ground in her two sprints but that’s likely not strictly a staminacap issue since she’s by Smart Strike and from a great family full of route horses. Hasn’t taken much betting in either start, suggesting she hasn’t blown away the morning onlookers. ACTRESS ON BOARD not only second by just a half-length last out at FG in a race like this but was 10 lengths clear of third. Not totally convinced the race was quite as good as the speed figure.

EIGHTH RACE

Main-track-only FOREVAMO is no sprinter and got in a potentially useful sprint comeback run last out while racing for the first time as a gelding. He has the highest dirt upside in the race, and the stall barn 36% wins & $2.38 ROI from most recent sample of similar second-after-layoff runners. PATRICK’S DAY claimed from decisive $40K claiming win over yielding CD turf last time in great part because he’s still eligible for this N2X allowance condition. Optional claiming tag here is the same one for which he just won. Doesn’t need wet turf for best and hard to see him not being competitive, perhaps at an overlaid price. Chip Leader never came back to the field in R4 11/25 at FG, and runner-up from that N3X alw / $80K claimer Saham was to run back Sat in stakes. PATERNAL PRIDE was fourth in the race and should hit hard on drop to $40K.

NINTH RACE

Betty Booyah surely coming flying out of the gate, and there appears to be serious chasing speed signed on, so the race has fall-apart potential. PENNY COIN TOSS was one-paced in her turf try but other two starts, both dirt, show one-run closer who still hasn’t hit her ceiling. Almost certainly a fair price. DREAMY ART’s 16.75-length pasting of La-bred MSWs last January, even on slop, points her out as key player here. She should be a little off the pace sprinting. Barn does just fine with long layoffs. BETTY BOOYAH was undeniably impressive off the shelf in her last start maiden win. It’s a little hard to understand running back such a good-looking maiden winner only 15 days after a strong performance. We’ll see how that works out.