ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, HOT SEAN FIRST RACE

FAMILY GIRL looked super winning her debut here July 9 (her only try on this track) and is SP since. She takes a significant drop after running 5th in a stakes at DMR last month and that move can get her back on track. She’s also reunited with Roman and the one time he teamed with her was in that aforementioned big July 9 win here. MISS PRETTY comes off a romping win by 9 1/4 lengths over maidens here Dec. 10. Could be she’s turned the corner. She’s not only matured of late but her best work has come here. She does face winners for the first time. TIGER MOM dueled before finishing 2nd in a similar spot here Dec. 3. That was her first try on this track so she handles it. She gets blinkers, too.

SECOND RACE

JOERAY has been working strongly for his debut. Not only is that nice on its own merit, but it looks even better since trainer Hofmans isn’t one to really press down hard on his runners in the a.m., particularly a debuting 2yo. Four of his six sibs at winners Skip Tony (10 wins, $237K, SW), Duke of Del Rey (6 wins, $264K), Suva Harbor (3 wins, $166K, SW, 4 SPs) and full-bro Midnight Rumble (5 wins, $76K). FIRE WHEN READY broke slowly in his debut and could manage only 6th, but remember, not only was that his debut, it came vs. straight maidens so he takes a significant drop for this. The winner of that Dec. 7 race (Heck Yeah) is a promising Baffert runner. He faces no one like that here. His two sibs are Lady Delaney (5 wins, $59K) and Aiming Straight (6 wins, $112K, SP). FIVETWENTYNINEFUND didn’t do much in his debut at SA June 2, but not only was that his debut, it came vs. straight maidens. He wasn’t seen for six months but when he resurfaced here Dec. 2 it was at this level and he finished smartly to be 3rd so this appears a good fit. All four sibs are winners including Anita Sunset (3 wins, $42K, twice SP).

THIRD RACE

HAWK’S EYES has been a tough pro for a long time - hey, you don’t win nine times by accident. Three of his best races the past half-year, came on this track, too, so he likes this place. A very sharp rallying 2nd (beaten just a nose) at this trip for this price last time out Dec. 2 says he’s a good fit in this spot. WINNING CAUSEWAY hasn’t run since July 2 at SA when he stalked the pace and ran 3rd. He was claimed that day for this price by Vallejo and while the layoff since is worrisome (let’s face it, you don’t claim a horse just for the sake of feeding it) it’s nice he returns for the same price, has worked steadily and gets the leading rider. That 3rd last time out looks better, too, when you note the 1-2 finishers both came right back to win. FUELED BY BOURBON has been facing much tougher the past couple years but doesn’t have much to show for it. He tumbles in class and that can surely help. It’s also nice to see some brisk works since.

FOURTH RACE

RAMONA LOVER has been knocking on the door and looks ready to break through. A good 2nd in her only start here, Sept. 14, shows she handles this place. She’s been freshened since another 2nd, that at SA Oct. 6, and that run looks better when you note two she beat that day came right back to win. BONA FIDE IMAGE has had plenty of chances but she’s run well too many times to dismiss her, including beating the top pick at DMR Aug. 20 and then finishing 3rd just behind that gal at SA Oct. 6. DORITA’S CANDY has yet to make a dent in five starts, but all five came vs. much tougher so maybe today’s big drop can get her turned around...maybe.

FIFTH RACE

HOT SEAN flashed considerable promise in the fall of 2016 as after two big wins at SA he ran 2nd to eventual G1 SP Gunnevera in the G3 Delta Jackpot. After that he wasn’t seen for 10 months but he came back to be a good 3rd sprinting at SA Oct. 22. He can benefit from that outing and this longer trip. Oh, and the winner of that Oct. 22 race, Edwards Going Left, is supposed to go next in the G1 Malibu at SA Dec. 26 so this guy was facing a nice horse. THE CRITICAL WAY ran 4th in that same Oct. 22 race at SA, though he finished a ways behind HOT SEAN (4 1/4 lengths). Remember, though, that was his first start in almost five months so he can improve. STORMIN MONARCHO was claimed for this price when a dull 6th at DMR Aug. 5 but he bounced back nicely to be a good 2nd there Nov. 16, some 7 1/4 lengths clear of 3rd. He’s a real pro (14 wins, 11 2nds).

SIXTH RACE

MONTMARTRE debuts with some smashing works for Hollendorfer, who of course is more than capable first time out. It’s also most encouraging Smith take the call. He picks his spots at a meet like this (has had just five mounts, won with three of them). CONCUR showed talent when 2nd in his first two starts this fall. The $500K son of two-time HOY and top sire Curlin showed good speed in each and is the one to beat. He of course has an experience edge over the top pick. RESTORING HOPE debuts for Baffert, who of course is well known for being strong first time out. Baffert is not only having a super meet but he’s already won with a couple debuting 2yo males this meet (Heck Yeah, Vision). The works indicate he’s fit and has speed. ALL OUT BLITZ showed talent when a solid 3rd in a fast heat at DMR Nov. 11, his 2nd start, so he bears watching.

SEVENTH RACE

FLASH HENRY ran his two best races (both wins) the only two times he’s raced here, both in September, so you know he likes it here. He dueled and paid the price sprinting for $20K at DMR Nov. 26. He not only drops in price, he goes from open to restricted company, and moving to a route his sprint speed may make him the one to catch. AMERICAN LEAGUE broke slowly in a race just like this here Dec. 1, rushed up to duel, used a lot of fuel to open a big lead turning for home and was running on empty in the lane, ending up 4th. A better start and his tactical speed can have him in a good spot from the start, likely stalking/pressing the top pick. LINDANTE comes off a fine 2nd routing here Dec. 7. He could fall into a nice trip just behind the speed.

EIGHTH RACE

LI’L GRAZEN stalked the pace and stayed on to be a decent 3rd in a race like this at DMR Nov. 18, so he’s proven effective at this level. Top rider Roman stays, there are two works since and he’s got the versatility to give his rider options. DANGEROUSLY CLOSE ran on gamely to be a good 2nd for $20K at DMR Nov. 24. Not only was he claimed that day by Vallejo (won with his last two runners first time off a claim) but there’s a strong work since and it’s most encouraging Vallejo, who’s having a super meet (4 for first 9, 44%), brings him back in a spot where he can’t lose him via another claim. CHAY UP AND AWAY ran 3rd to the top pick at DMR Aug. 27 but then added blinkers and smoked maidens by 5 1/2 lengths at SA Oct. 20. He hasn’t run since but has worked steadily and returns with no tag attached. Could be blinkers got him over the hump.

NINTH RACE

SEEKING THE WEST hasn’t won in a long time but the 7yo, who was gone nearly two years, showed signs of life this fall after that long layoff. He kept to his task to be 2nd nd for $12,500 at SA Oct. 9, chasing a horse (Beaumarchais) who came right back to win. He hasn’t run since but has worked decently for Ellis who’s strong off a layoff, and it’s most encouraging Ellis brings him back in a spot where he can’t lose him via a claim and gets the leading rider. TASUNKE WITCO looked good whipping $12,500 foes in his first start here Dec. 7. He was claimed by Treece who brings him back with no tag attached. MON MOUSSE continues his strong form, having won five of his last nine. He can run on any surface and his speed will have him prominent from the bell.

TENTH RACE

IS TREVOR CLEVER dueled through fast splits going 7fs at this level at DMR, eventually tiring to 4th. Remember, not only did he duel, that was his first start in nine months. He can benefit from that outing and he may be more effective at this longer trip. SOUTHERN THUNDER was trending the right way this fall and may be ready to break through. He’s worked well for this. SPEND IT is the only one in here who actually knows what it feels like to win, as he ‘won’ here Dec. 1, only to get disqualified and placed 2nd. Of course, that shows he can win a race like this, though today’s spot looks tougher and his lack of speed can sometimes put him behind the 8-ball tactically.